Lottery Watch (Top 4 26.3% / #1 Ovr 6.0%)

[ejs78]

In the last couple of days the Mavs odds of a top 4 pick have gone from 7.1% to 20.3%. Likely we that Mavs could only move up one more spot which would be a 26.3% chance of a top 4. I know its not a popular plan, but the trades shows next year is the playoffs or bust mindset so I'm all in on the tank regardless of the odds of keeping the pick.

[Pinkyring]

These last 25ish games should be about evaluation and not running luka into the ground, we need to know if dfs and maxi are starters or bench players, if brunson is a backup point or a third stringer, if jackson belongs in the league at all playing powell to get him to consider opting out

[RPGxGOAT]

It's in our best interest to try and get the 7th or 8th worst record. But I don't want to see us tank at all. Keep trying to win every game, and with 14 of the last 25 on the road and a lack of a post presence it's possible we could still lose enough games to get there without trying to lose. Here is our next 25 games. I fail to see us going better than 8-17, the two games with Memphis at the end of the season could be very interesting in terms of lottery order.

Fri, Feb 22 vs Denver
Sat, Feb 23 @ Utah
Mon, Feb 25 @ LAC
Wed, Feb 27 vs Indiana
Sat, Mar 2 vs Memphis
Mon, Mar 4 @ Brooklyn
Wed, Mar 6 @ Washington
Fri, Mar 8 @ Orlando
Sun, Mar 10 vs Houston
Tue, Mar 12 vs San Antonio
Thu, Mar 14 @ Denver
Sat, Mar 16 vs Cleveland
Mon, Mar 18 vs New Orleans
Wed, Mar 20 @ Portland
Thu, Mar 21 @ Sacramento
Sat, Mar 23 @ Golden State
Tue, Mar 26 vs Sacramento
Thu, Mar 28 @ Miami
Sun, Mar 31 @ Oklahoma City
Mon, Apr 1 vs Philadelphia
Wed, Apr 3 vs Minnesota
Fri, Apr 5 vs Memphis
Sun, Apr 7 @ Memphis
Tue, Apr 9 vs Phoenix
Wed, Apr 10 @ San Antonio

[SOUNDCHASER]

Fri, Feb 22 vs Denver W
Sat, Feb 23 @ Utah W
Mon, Feb 25 @ LAC W
Wed, Feb 27 vs Indiana W
Sat, Mar 2 vs Memphis W
Mon, Mar 4 @ Brooklyn W
Wed, Mar 6 @ Washington W
Fri, Mar 8 @ Orlando W
Sun, Mar 10 vs Houston W
Tue, Mar 12 vs San Antonio W
Thu, Mar 14 @ Denver W
Sat, Mar 16 vs Cleveland W
Mon, Mar 18 vs New Orleans W
Wed, Mar 20 @ Portland W
Thu, Mar 21 @ Sacramento W
Sat, Mar 23 @ Golden State W
Tue, Mar 26 vs Sacramento W
Thu, Mar 28 @ Miami W
Sun, Mar 31 @ Oklahoma City W
Mon, Apr 1 vs Philadelphia W
Wed, Apr 3 vs Minnesota W
Fri, Apr 5 vs Memphis W
Sun, Apr 7 @ Memphis W
Tue, Apr 9 vs Phoenix W
Wed, Apr 10 @ San Antonio W

25 and 0 you heard it here first.

[SOUNDCHASER]

Winning is what attracts free agents guys.

Luka, KP & a top free agent means we still need 2 other starters in the future who will want to come here to win rings and that is especially true if Tim and DFS don't work out.

We might be good enough to win once they pull in that 3rd free agent.

Regardless it will take time to get their act together so its not going to happen overnight. KP is a PF not a center so if we sign a wing we will need to snag a decent rebounding center to put in there. If we sign a center we have Tim at SG and we have DFS to play at the SF if Luka is needed at SF we have 3 PG's to play as well so versatility is what we really have.

I'd be shocked if we did not make a play a Vucevic since he is younger than Cousins and a better 3 point shooter.

There are a lot of wings that we may try to sign with what we have left over so we can add more perimeter defense and 3 point shooting.

[arkuo]

Winning is what attracts free agents guys.

Luka, KP & a top free agent means we still need 2 other starters in the future who will want to come here to win rings and that is especially true if Tim and DFS don't work out.

We might be good enough to win once they pull in that 3rd free agent.

Regardless it will take time to get their act together so its not going to happen overnight. KP is a PF not a center so if we sign a wing we will need to snag a decent rebounding center to put in there. If we sign a center we have Tim at SG and we have DFS to play at the SF if Luka is needed at SF we have 3 PG's to play as well so versatility is what we really have.

I'd be shocked if we did not make a play a Vucevic since he is younger than Cousins and a better 3 point shooter.

There are a lot of wings that we may try to sign with what we have left over so we can add more perimeter defense and 3 point shooting.

I agree. What we really need is a 3rd star to put us over the top. Playoff teams will just put a lengthy plus defender on Luka in a seven game series and we're screwed. Luka is slow and cant jump high. He will have trouble against playoff teams with taller defenders on him. That has been evident this season. We need someone who can cover those weaknesses. If we cant land someone of that caliber this summer, I'd shore up every penny and make a bid for Pascal Siakam next year.

Having DFS and Siakam flank Luka would be perfect. And would be a nightmare for opposing teams.

[SOUNDCHASER]

Toronto is a good team to steal players from.

[2011Champs]

Mavs are in full tank mode now. I figure mavs will end up giving Atlanta a great pick.

[Pointguard01]

Mavs are in full tank mode now. I figure mavs will end up giving Atlanta a great pick.

I'd much rather give ATL the 7th pick, but have a better chance to jump into the top-4 vs giving ATL the 10th pick, and having little to no chance to jump into the top-4. Whether that pick is #6 or #30, DAL makes the trade 10 out of 10x. We got a cornerstone.

We should 10000% be trying to get our pick this year.

1. Add a top 4 guy (Jarrett Culver, De’Andre Hunter & Cam Reddish would all be great wings next to Luka)
2. You now have 2 of your top 4 players moving forward on rookie contracts for 3 & 4 years respectively (assuming you nail the pick)
3. You sign/trade for someone with cap space

You now have a really strong core moving forward.

G- _______ | Jalen Brunson
G- Luka Doncic | Tim Hardaway
F- De’Andre Hunter* | Dorin Finney-Smith
F- Maxi Kleber | __________
C- Kristof Porzingis | Dwight Powell

[ejs78]

Up to 26.3% chance at a top 4 pick.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[burek3]

This season is over, then... good for the sleep I guess.

[dirkforpres]

Up to 26.3% chance at a top 4 pick.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

I hate those odds and I hate the idea of tanking in Dirks final year. We might not make the playoffs, but tanking 3 years in a row is just disgusting

[Archx]

Up to 26.3% chance at a top 4 pick.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

I hate those odds and I hate the idea of tanking in Dirks final year. We might not make the playoffs, but tanking 3 years in a row is just disgusting

Yea, i agree with you. Even Doncic already expressed some dissatisfaction with losing. He was winning all his life and now he is put into an environment where you basically want lose on purpose, because % are slightly in your favor. But at the end of the day it's still a huge gamble where you can end up with nothing.

You don't want to lose 1 franchise player due to retirement and potentially another one due to losing hope of winning.

[ejs78]

This whole thing of this is creating a losing culture is nonsense. The team clearly made the trades with next year in mind, they have a top coach, great owner, and have had a winning culture for for a while now with the exception of the last 3 years. This isn't the Suns or Knicks who turn through coaches GMs, and have drama. The direction is clear and biting the bullet for one more year isn't going to hurt.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

[fuller4379]

This year is a lost cause. There are only two players on the team who are legitimate NBA starters. Losing for a 30% chance for a top 4 pick doesn’t thrill me either. The main goals for the rest of the season:

1) Keep Luka healthy.
2) Get Dirk 6th on the all time scoring list.
3) Pad Luka’s stats so he gets ROY.

[Pinkyring]

Up to 26.3% chance at a top 4 pick.

Sent from my SM-G960U using RealGM mobile app

I hate those odds and I hate the idea of tanking in Dirks final year. We might not make the playoffs, but tanking 3 years in a row is just disgusting

Yea, i agree with you. Even Doncic already expressed some dissatisfaction with losing. He was winning all his life and now he is put into an environment where you basically want lose on purpose, because % are slightly in your favor. But at the end of the day it's still a huge gamble where you can end up with nothing.

You don't want to lose 1 franchise player due to retirement and potentially another one due to losing hope of winning.

Please stop with the nut hugging of luka, he will be fine, all the top picks are going to lose the first year thats life, theres a reason teams in the lotto are there. As for tanking, i really dont get why people complain, this team was a 40 win team at best to start the season, whether we win 40 or 30 we still suck and miss the playoffs so what does it matter

[Archx]

I hate those odds and I hate the idea of tanking in Dirks final year. We might not make the playoffs, but tanking 3 years in a row is just disgusting

Yea, i agree with you. Even Doncic already expressed some dissatisfaction with losing. He was winning all his life and now he is put into an environment where you basically want lose on purpose, because % are slightly in your favor. But at the end of the day it's still a huge gamble where you can end up with nothing.

You don't want to lose 1 franchise player due to retirement and potentially another one due to losing hope of winning.

Please stop with the nut hugging of luka, he will be fine, all the top picks are going to lose the first year thats life, theres a reason teams in the lotto are there. As for tanking, i really dont get why people complain, this team was a 40 win team at best to start the season, whether we win 40 or 30 we still suck and miss the playoffs so what does it matter

Do you even listen to what Cuban, Rick or Nelson are saying? Also, chances of getting a really good draft pick are incredibly low. So the fact that i want this franchise to be successful and have a winning culture is the reason why i will continue to think this way.

[Pinkyring]

Yea, i agree with you. Even Doncic already expressed some dissatisfaction with losing. He was winning all his life and now he is put into an environment where you basically want lose on purpose, because % are slightly in your favor. But at the end of the day it's still a huge gamble where you can end up with nothing.

You don't want to lose 1 franchise player due to retirement and potentially another one due to losing hope of winning.

Please stop with the nut hugging of luka, he will be fine, all the top picks are going to lose the first year thats life, theres a reason teams in the lotto are there. As for tanking, i really dont get why people complain, this team was a 40 win team at best to start the season, whether we win 40 or 30 we still suck and miss the playoffs so what does it matter

Do you even listen to what Cuban, Rick or Nelson are saying? Also, chances of getting a really good draft pick are incredibly low. So the fact that i want this franchise to be successful and have a winning culture is the reason why i will continue to think this way.

Yes the chances of a good pick are low but are much higher than chances of winning a playoff series, or hell even making the playoffs, if we go balls to the wall these last 23 games we may win 10, if we tank we win 5, those 5 wins dont shift a winning culture, this team doesn't have talent, idk whats so hard fo see about that

[J_T]

I hate those odds and I hate the idea of tanking in Dirks final year. We might not make the playoffs, but tanking 3 years in a row is just disgusting

Yea, i agree with you. Even Doncic already expressed some dissatisfaction with losing. He was winning all his life and now he is put into an environment where you basically want lose on purpose, because % are slightly in your favor. But at the end of the day it's still a huge gamble where you can end up with nothing.

You don't want to lose 1 franchise player due to retirement and potentially another one due to losing hope of winning.

Please stop with the nut hugging of luka, he will be fine, all the top picks are going to lose the first year thats life, theres a reason teams in the lotto are there. As for tanking, i really dont get why people complain, this team was a 40 win team at best to start the season, whether we win 40 or 30 we still suck and miss the playoffs so what does it matter

What we think doesn't matter. It matters what players think. Players don't want to play for crappy teams who are tanking every season for the "next" greatest prospect. You will never understand, you don't hate losing. You also seem to be incapable of puting yourself in players' shoes, because you think players will always do whatever suits their team best. Players are not slaves, they can go elsewhere and you can keep your 25% chance for top 4 pick every season if you want. Enjoy the lottery.

Edmonton Oilers 2010: #1 pick
Edmonton Oilers 2011: #1 pick
Edmonton Oilers 2012: #1 pick
Edmonton Oilers 2013: #7 pick
Edmonton Oilers 2014: #3 pick
Edmonton Oilers 2015: #1 pick
Edmonton Oilers 2016: #4 pick

Made playoffs only once since 2006 (and they aren't making it this year either, they are placed 25th in the league). If you want to be Edmonton Oilers of NBA all I can say is good luck.


With that said, Luka did also add something along lines of "but I understand that's how it has to be". I have no doubt that management did have a chat with Luka and explained to him what their plans are and that this will be over after this season. And confirming again, that there is no tanking and players should try to win as many games as possible. Everything management has done so far also clearly shows that they are building a team around Luka and furthermore that the team plans to get serious next season, this is no ordinary slow rebuild (although some people around here seem to be hoping for a 10-year rebuild it seems)

So while this is definitely disappointment for Luka, with everything else surrounding him and the team, he will be fine. Hopefully they win as many games as possible. The more games they win, the better chances are for Mavs to get a serious player in the summer, in my opinion. And it will help build winning culture.

[dirkforpres]

Losing isn’t worth the risk. I’m not wanting to leave anything to chance and id rather give up the 11th or 12th pick this year than have a slim chance on picking top 5 only to end up gifting Atlanta the 6th or 7th pick. Had Dallas tried tanking in December or January, I’d be more on board with it... tanking with 20 games left is ludicrous.. especially when we are 6 games ahead of Atlanta for the 5th pick odds