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Around the NBA discussion

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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#81 » by DJ_3_Ball » Thu Dec 26, 2019 1:16 pm

Wow! New Orleans knocked off Denver last night @ DEN on National TV and did it by 12!

Nice Xmas present for the Mavs the top 3 teams in the West all lost yesterday. And, just as I'm starting to think this team is locked into the 5th/6th seed, the teams above the Mavs start playing like boo boo.

Clippers didn't deserve to win that game yesterday. HOU got bodied by Golden State! And this trapping Harden thing is forreal. I don't know what to say about Denver. Maybe they're just not that good.

I guess we'll see what happens by Feb 6th (NBA trade deadline), just about 6 weeks from now. I expect those teams ahead of us to add pieces.

This Western conference is really wild this year. The Mavs could have easily won vs MIA and @ TOR, if they had, they'd be 21-8, 2nd place in the West & LeBron is dealing with groin issues again. That's the other thing. We might face a LeBron-less Lakers on Sunday.

Santa was good to the Mavs this year!
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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#82 » by DJ_3_Ball » Fri Dec 27, 2019 12:26 pm

I like to look ahead at the schedule (hey, I can get away with it. I'm just a fan. Not on the team lol).

We have a pretty interesting, maybe even pivotal stretch coming up here.

Coming into the season, I had the Mavs on that borderline of the battle for the 7th/8th seed. Shortly after the Mavs took the Lakers to OT on National TV & Luka kept showing that performance was no fluke, at that point I started to think the playoffs were a lock.

Then recently, right before the Luka injury, I started thinking the Mavs might be in position to solidify a top 4 seed (at least in my mind and/or the public's mind) if they were impressive vs the top 5 teams in the East. But, Luka got hurt & then they were impressive & unimpressive all at the same time... and it left us wondering what's up?

If you look at the next 14 games, I see 8 games the Mavs should win.

12/28 @ GSW
1/2 vs BKN
1/4 vs CHA
1/6 vs CHI
1/14 @ GSW
1/15 @ SAC
1/17 vs POR
1/23 @ POR

then you have 6 games in that stretch that the Mavs would either be an underdog in, or I could see them losing

12/29 @ LAL
12/31 @ OKC
1/8 vs DEN
1/10 vs LAL
1/11 vs PHI
1/21 vs LAC

Now, maybe you could say they might split those 2 games with POR (POR plays so bad tho), or maybe they lose in Sacramento (Kings just lost Fox & Bagley tonight, and I think the Mavs want some payback for the last game vs SAC). But, for the sake of argument, let's just say the Mavs run the table on those 8 games (because you're gonna have a hot streak at some point during the season), and let's say they go 2-4 in those other 6 games.

At that point you're 30-14 on the season. You only have 38 games left to play. I looked at those last 38 games, and basically if you could even reasonably say that's a "tough game" I just counted it as a loss. I came up with 18-20. Even if the Mavs perform that poorly in their last 38 games, they'd still be 48-34 (.585 winning pct).

It would basically lock up the 6th seed for the Mavs.

The only caveat to this is if OKC or POR get on a serious roll. Because as the next few games are played, OKC, POR, and anyone else still contending for the playoffs (SAC, PHX, etc) are going to be putting themselves in a situation where they'd have to play .700% winning basketball just to get 48 wins.

The Mavs can help themselves out by winning vs OKC, POR, and SAC coming up.

What's exciting about this is... I personally would have the Mavs going 11-3 over the next 14, but even if they just go, let's say, 9-5. Then .500 basketball the rest of the way puts them at 48 wins and locks up the 6th seed... AND... then every win in those 38 games is like, what about the 5th seed?... what about the 4th seed?... what about the 3rd seed?

These games like the home loss to the Kings, the OT loss to Miami, the 30 point lead evaporating at TOR... all of those games are basically freerolls. We get in games like that & the Mavs start to pull those games out, then you start seeing a path to 50 wins, 53 wins, 57 wins... or more???

I haven't seen anyone in the West that's pulled away. The Lakers were the closest to doing it, but then I think they were propped up a bit by a super easy schedule to start the season & now their lack of depth is starting to show.

Denver has been really up & down with some very poor losses on their ledger. They might add a big piece, so we'll see, but as currently constructed, I don't think they'd stand much of a chance if they had to play the Mavs in the playoffs (and the Mavs had homecourt advantage).

The Clippers, they've played 33 games and PG & Kawhi have only taken the floor together for like 15 of those games. I think they're still a work in progress, and they have a team full of guys with extensive injury histories. They're "scary", but I don't see them as unbeatable. I'd take them on. Let's fire up a 7 game series and see.

The Rockets, I think they have so many problems. I think NBA teams are starting to figure out how to defend them. I think, it's same song, second verse (times 10) with them. They'll wear Harden out by the playoffs. They don't have depth, like at all. They don't have the ability to add much at the trade deadline; although, I'm positive they'll add someone. I just don't see them making it out of the 2nd round.

The Jazz, I don't see them surpassing the Mavs. They just haven't gel'd yet. Maybe, they will, but I'd only worry about them if the Mavs had to play the Jazz & they had homecourt advantage. Even then, I don't think they have the perimeter defenders to stop Luka. I think that starts & stops with the Clippers... Although, Gary Harris, Will Barton & the Nuggets might have something to say about that.

So, basically what I'm saying is, I think after these next 14 games it'll probably be pretty safe to go ahead & order your playoff tix this year. Because even without Luka, the Mavs can go 19-19 their final 38.
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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#83 » by ejs78 » Mon Jan 6, 2020 3:28 am

Since the Grizz board has zero life I'll ask it here to see if anyone knows. Why doesn't Melton get more run. Kid is solid and was a toss in on the Josh Jackson deal.

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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#84 » by Dirk » Mon Jan 6, 2020 2:42 pm

ejs78 wrote:Since the Grizz board has zero life I'll ask it here to see if anyone knows. Why doesn't Melton get more run. Kid is solid and was a toss in on the Josh Jackson deal.

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They paid Tyus Jones. But, lets bring in MEM's insider.

VCfor3 wrote:.


Another Pacific Division demolition job. Conference is so wide open that Pelicans and Grizzlies who looked buried and heading for the tank are now probably talking playoffs.
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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#85 » by VCfor3 » Mon Jan 6, 2020 3:23 pm

Melton was injured for preseason and training camp so got buried in the rotation. When Ja was out, Melton got a little bit of run and made the most of it. Now he has kicked Guduric out of the rotation completely and actually closes games some. His minutes fluctuate between 15-23min a game depending on how the game is going. Sometimes Coach Jenkins leans on Grayson Allen more and sometimes he leans on Melton more depending on how both guys are playing and what we need. Allen is a little better as a 3pt shooter while Melton is better on defense/is more well-rounded.

Also Melton is a good secondary ball handler but has been rough as a primary ball handler so you want Tyus or Ja on the court with him. Occasionally Jenkins plays both Tyus and Ja together which eats SG minutes and Brooks is our starting SG so takes a large chunk of the time as well. An interesting lineup that was experimented with a little bit was Melton at SG and Brooks at SF. Lots of shooting, defense, and Ja'ness when paired with Clarke, Ja, and JJJ though we lack size with that lineup.
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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#86 » by arkuo » Wed Jan 8, 2020 6:47 am

Gary Clark just got waived by Fertitta's cheap ass.

3&D guy. 25 years old. Can play some PF. looks like a DFS clone to me. Would cost the vet minimum to bring over.
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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#87 » by Dirk » Wed Jan 8, 2020 11:52 am

VCfor3 wrote:Melton was injured for preseason and training camp so got buried in the rotation. When Ja was out, Melton got a little bit of run and made the most of it. Now he has kicked Guduric out of the rotation completely and actually closes games some. His minutes fluctuate between 15-23min a game depending on how the game is going. Sometimes Coach Jenkins leans on Grayson Allen more and sometimes he leans on Melton more depending on how both guys are playing and what we need. Allen is a little better as a 3pt shooter while Melton is better on defense/is more well-rounded.

Also Melton is a good secondary ball handler but has been rough as a primary ball handler so you want Tyus or Ja on the court with him. Occasionally Jenkins plays both Tyus and Ja together which eats SG minutes and Brooks is our starting SG so takes a large chunk of the time as well. An interesting lineup that was experimented with a little bit was Melton at SG and Brooks at SF. Lots of shooting, defense, and Ja'ness when paired with Clarke, Ja, and JJJ though we lack size with that lineup.

The two young studs coming through in the 4th against the lowly wolves. That play where ja was trapped and he passed it to the midlle for jj's floater was sweet.

Brooks playing ridiculously good right now.

Oh my.
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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#88 » by ejs78 » Wed Jan 8, 2020 4:51 pm

Great info

Just think he's better than Jones and should be getting 25 min a night.

Thanks
VCfor3 wrote:Melton was injured for preseason and training camp so got buried in the rotation. When Ja was out, Melton got a little bit of run and made the most of it. Now he has kicked Guduric out of the rotation completely and actually closes games some. His minutes fluctuate between 15-23min a game depending on how the game is going. Sometimes Coach Jenkins leans on Grayson Allen more and sometimes he leans on Melton more depending on how both guys are playing and what we need. Allen is a little better as a 3pt shooter while Melton is better on defense/is more well-rounded.

Also Melton is a good secondary ball handler but has been rough as a primary ball handler so you want Tyus or Ja on the court with him. Occasionally Jenkins plays both Tyus and Ja together which eats SG minutes and Brooks is our starting SG so takes a large chunk of the time as well. An interesting lineup that was experimented with a little bit was Melton at SG and Brooks at SF. Lots of shooting, defense, and Ja'ness when paired with Clarke, Ja, and JJJ though we lack size with that lineup.


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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#89 » by VCfor3 » Wed Jan 8, 2020 10:31 pm

ejs78 wrote:Great info

Just think he's better than Jones and should be getting 25 min a night.

Thanks
VCfor3 wrote:Melton was injured for preseason and training camp so got buried in the rotation. When Ja was out, Melton got a little bit of run and made the most of it. Now he has kicked Guduric out of the rotation completely and actually closes games some. His minutes fluctuate between 15-23min a game depending on how the game is going. Sometimes Coach Jenkins leans on Grayson Allen more and sometimes he leans on Melton more depending on how both guys are playing and what we need. Allen is a little better as a 3pt shooter while Melton is better on defense/is more well-rounded.

Also Melton is a good secondary ball handler but has been rough as a primary ball handler so you want Tyus or Ja on the court with him. Occasionally Jenkins plays both Tyus and Ja together which eats SG minutes and Brooks is our starting SG so takes a large chunk of the time as well. An interesting lineup that was experimented with a little bit was Melton at SG and Brooks at SF. Lots of shooting, defense, and Ja'ness when paired with Clarke, Ja, and JJJ though we lack size with that lineup.


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No arguments here ha. Jones has picked it up lately at least, but if it wasn't for Jones's superior playmaking Melton would have eaten more of his minutes already.


Dirk wrote:The two young studs coming through in the 4th against the lowly wolves. That play where ja was trapped and he passed it to the midlle for jj's floater was sweet.

Brooks playing ridiculously good right now.

Oh my.

Having the young guys be the reason we win has been great! Glad to see more Ja/JJJ PnR and JJJ flashing that potentially elite defense. Brooks just has MIN's number. I don't know if someone insulted his mother or what, but he has career games against them every time we play.
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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#90 » by J_T » Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:31 pm

A lot of fantasy Harden owners are going to curse him today. Single-handedly destroying turnovers category. 11 so far and still 10 minutes to go in 3rd quarter.
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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#91 » by HMFFL » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:02 pm

J_T wrote:A lot of fantasy Harden owners are going to curse him today. Single-handedly destroying turnovers category. 11 so far and still 10 minutes to go in 3rd quarter.
Good grief. You know when you draft a guy like Harden his TO's will be high. Same with Russ and so on.

My biggest issue with one of my teams is how RJ Barrett has been performing. He just had a good game but his FG% and turnovers have killed me.

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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#92 » by J_T » Mon Jan 13, 2020 5:21 pm

HMFFL wrote:
J_T wrote:A lot of fantasy Harden owners are going to curse him today. Single-handedly destroying turnovers category. 11 so far and still 10 minutes to go in 3rd quarter.
Good grief. You know when you draft a guy like Harden his TO's will be high. Same with Russ and so on.

My biggest issue with one of my teams is how RJ Barrett has been performing. He just had a good game but his FG% and turnovers have killed me.

Yeah, I just don't care about FG% (second to last in league) and points (last in the league). But I still won 10 in a row now. I just win every other category. Still fan of Harden in my fantasy and I drafted him at number SIX. :D I mean free throws are almost a guarantee with him.
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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#93 » by HMFFL » Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:20 am

Zion Williams will play Wednesday.

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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#94 » by DJ_3_Ball » Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:06 am

HMFFL wrote:
J_T wrote:A lot of fantasy Harden owners are going to curse him today. Single-handedly destroying turnovers category. 11 so far and still 10 minutes to go in 3rd quarter.
Good grief. You know when you draft a guy like Harden his TO's will be high. Same with Russ and so on.

My biggest issue with one of my teams is how RJ Barrett has been performing. He just had a good game but his FG% and turnovers have killed me.

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I cut RJ Barrett a long time ago. His %s were too much to stomach.
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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#95 » by J_T » Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:49 am

You know what's kind of funny? Kings' 39 wins last year was their best season since 2005/06. They peaked last season.
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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#96 » by Imon » Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:17 am

J_T wrote:You know what's kind of funny? Kings' 39 wins last year was their best season since 2005/06. They peaked last season.


ESPN puts out a sports fan misery index every year and the Kings have been at or near the top for a long time.

I think passing on Luka could probably be added to the misery index now.
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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#97 » by fuller4379 » Sat Jan 18, 2020 10:51 pm

Read on Twitter
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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#98 » by HMFFL » Sun Jan 19, 2020 3:24 am

fuller4379 wrote:
Read on Twitter
That Portland team has been dealing with injuries but they desperately need some changes. This trade should help them.

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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#99 » by DJ_3_Ball » Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:05 am

HMFFL wrote:
fuller4379 wrote:
Read on Twitter
That Portland team has been dealing with injuries but they desperately need some changes. This trade should help them.

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On the court? It's just a move to save salary. It's almost a mini-raising of the White flag.

The Trailblazers are closer to 14th in the West than they are to the 8th seed. They'll never say it publicly, but they have to be looking at next year.

It's not like Ariza puts you over the hump, and it's not like you gear up for a run at the 7th or 8th seed. Even if you shocked the world & won in the first round, you're going on a championship run after that? Hey, maybe. But, if you're the front office you don't plan for that. I'm saying they didn't clear that cap space, so they could take on salary at the trade deadline. At least not if they're smart.
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Re: Around the NBA discussion 

Post#100 » by Imon » Sun Jan 19, 2020 4:19 am

Houston just lost to the Lakers.

Not a huge surprise since the Lakers are good but the Rockets have now lost 4 of their last 5 games. They seem to be in a little mini-funk right now. I can't really make sense of the Rockets - they seem to have top-end potential but usually plays below it.
For now the Mavs have taken the 5th seed in the West over the Rockets but I can't see the Mavs holding onto it unless the Rockets keep slipping.

Seems to me, unless there are major injuries, the standings have more-or-less solidified in the West (except for the 8th seed).
Lakers seem like they're a lock for a top-2 seed, if not the 1st seed. Denver does well in the regular season, the Jazz finished the season strong last season and are likely to repeat that strong finish, Clippers will likely finish in the top-4 even with load management so I realistically can't see the Mavs moving out of the 6th seed unless, like I said earlier, the Rockets perform below expectations.

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