2020 NBA Draft Discussion (18th and 31st pick)

[DJ_3_Ball]

3 days with no games

So, I've been occupying my time with a little draft research. At first glance, you think "Meh". Mavs have what a mid-to-late 1st? When has that ever worked out for Dallas? Right?

Well, If you figure the Mavs for the 4th to 6th seed in the West, you could see their pick in the 18th to 22nd overall range. I hadn't heard a lot of great things about this draft class. Personally, any time one of the Ball brothers is mentioned, I roll my eyes. And, with LaMelo Ball being projected at the top of this draft class, I didn't think much of it, at first.

Looking closer there's a few things to like.

#1 - There's some very interesting international draft prospects this year.

#2 - We're already seeing some returning players (So/Jr/Sr) showing signs of being NBA role players.

#3 - Mavs have extra flexibility with the GSW 2nd round pick


I'm not advocating any particular option, at least right now, but I'm envisioning a few options for the Mavs. This first option would require absolute faith in your scouting department.

Deni Avdija is currently considered the top international prospect in the 2020 draft. You can see him being mocked anywhere from 5th to 9th in most mocks. 19 yrs old by the time the draft rolls around, Israeli-born, athletic 6-8 SF with a versatile skill set. Some say he has "Luka-like" qualities. A bit much, but he definitely has some slashing & playmaking abilities. Can shoot & shoot with range, and has a defensive presence as well. Has drawn some Andrei Kirilenko comparisons too.

I don't think you can package say the 21st overall pick and the 32nd overall pick and move up to 7th to pick Avdija outright. I think it'd take more than that. IF, and ONLY if, your scouts think Avdija is that type of a difference-maker. I've heard him called a potential superstar as his ceiling, and a versatile jack-of-all-trades as his floor (still not bad, even if he's just a poor man's Lamar Odom)... If you're high on him, then you could get creative.

I was thinking try to move Seth Curry or Delon Wright to the Lakers, take back KCP and pick up a 1st round pick (thereby allowing the Mavs to trade a 1st round pick... if I'm understanding this right because of the Stepien rule, NBA teams cannot trade 1st round picks in back-to-back years or risk it, and they can't trade 1st round picks further than, at the most, 7 years out. Therefore, because the Mavs have a 2021 unprotected 1st going to NYK and a protected 2023 1st round pick going to NYK---with protections in 2024 & 2025---then they cannot trade a 1st round pick at all because the next available would be 2027 and that's more than 7 years away). So, all of that said (I know what a headache), the Mavs can make a 1st round available by gaining another 1st round pick. It can be the 30th overall pick, it just has to be another 1st round draft pick i.e. they pick up a 1st round draft pick in 2021. Then they can trade their 2020 1st round draft pick.

The problem with the Lakers is, they have their 2021 1st rounder going to New Orleans (with protections which pushes them out of the picture til 2027 also). You would think Milwaukee would have interest, but they have protection complications too.

Minnesota could be a partner. So could Portland, Toronto, Phoenix, and Sacramento. I don't know that Seth Curry or Delon Wright get the job done for either of those teams, but taking back a bad contract like Gorgui Dieng could push the deal through. I think Minnesota is desperate to make the playoffs & keep KAT happy. They're probably going to be all in on DeAngelo Russell, though.

Somehow the Mavs need to make that happen. I didn't realize it was this complicated, and I didn't realize the Mavs, essentially, couldn't trade their 1st round pick again until 2027 (I guess, technically they can trade their 2020 1st round pick ONLY if they're trading it for another 2020 1st round pick). However, if I'm reading this correctly, the Mavs not only have the GSW 2nd round pick, but they also have a 2nd round pick coming from UTH, which will be CLE's 2nd round pick. Right now, that's the 31st overall pick and the 34th overall pick. There's no restrictions on trading 2nd round picks in back-to-back years.

If the Mavs can find another 1st round pick out there in either 2020, 2021, or 2022, then they'd be able to trade a 1st round pick in the next 3 years, and they could package it with 1 or 2 early 2nds this year.

I think 2 factors will be in play this draft. 1) NBA teams will be in copycat mode. Luka is all the rage, so teams will reach on these international players. Those guys probably owe Luka a cut of their signing bonuses. Lol! 2) There's always one team that's scared of the international prospect. Look at the Kings, for example. All that has to happen for the Mavs to move up & take an international prospect they really like is for a team to feel like they're inbetween their draft tiers. Say a team like the Wizards is drafting 8th, and Avdija is still there. The Wizards brass doesn't like Avdija and their board was 5 players deep. Those 5 are off the board, and they have the next 15 players grouped similarly. They move back to the 19th overall pick and pick up the 31st overall pick, a future 2nd, and say Jalen Brunson, that could get it done.

Scenario #2 - I could see the Mavs picking 22nd overall, and having 5-7 guys they like in that range. Here's the problem I have with this. Even when it's a guy Carlisle supposedly likes, a guy like Justin Anderson, Carlisle never gets the value out of these draft picks. He just sits the rookies. For example, Atlanta has gotten a nice contribution from their 2018 1st round pick (19th overall) Kevin Huerter. Career 38.6% 3PM shooter, 13.67 PER, the guy fills a role. I see a few guys I like in this spot, but I don't see Carlisle playing them. I think if Huerter were a Maverick, he'd be averaging 10.5 mpg not the 26.6 mpg he's averaged with the Hawks.

Still, Iowa State's Tyrese Haliburton (Soph PG) has been impressive this season. Unheralded 3 star recruit out of Wisconsin, cousin of former NBA player Eddie Jones, he's averaging the 5th most assists in the country and 18th most steals. 6-5, he supposedly lacks elite athleticism, but is said to have a high basketball IQ. He's shooting 40.8% on 3s this season and shot 43.4% last year as a freshman. Over 51% on FGs both years, so the guy's shot selection and stroke appear to be just fine (although his FT shooting is subpar). Really has the makings of a player who was overlooked. The problem is some mocks have him in the lottery and some have him lurking around the late teens/early 20s.

There's other international prospects I could see being available here. If the Mavs aren't high on Advija or Hayes or Malendon, then I'd expect them to stand pat.

If they're not high on any players in this section of the draft. I could even see them trading their 1st round pick this year + one of their early 2nd rounders for a 2021 1st rounder. Say San Antonio likes a guy (although, in that situation, I think I'd be nervous the Spurs see something we don't)... or let's say Charlotte likes a guy. Someone you figure will be in the lottery in 2021 (although, I have no idea of the quality of that draft class).

At any rate, there's lots of interesting possibilities here. I was thinking the Mavs don't really have any assets to move, but they can get creative. They can make something happen.

One of the things that does make me a bit sad is I know they're unlikely to do something like take a guy like Scottie Lewis or Precious Achiwua, players with tremendous athleticism & upside but who need to develop, and give them time to grow. Portland did that with Anfernee Simons 2 years ago, and it's starting to pay off for them. That's how you hit a grand slam in the draft. I don't think the Mavs have the balls to swing for the fences like that, though. They kinda proved they didn't have the stones for it back with Giannis, and I can't remember them ever taking a high risk, high reward guy. Not since they traded for Leon Smith in '99, and that was well before the Carlisle era. Their unwillingness to take a chance (on American players) makes the upcoming draft a lot less interesting.

[DJ_3_Ball]

Update on the kid I'm liking so far. Deni Advija. Nate Wolters (lol remember him?) missed today's game for Maccabi Fox Tel Aviv, which, in theory, would have opened up some minutes for Advija. He played 8 minutes (Euroleague games are only 40 minutes) 0/1 FG 1 reb 1 asst.

Advija is about the same age Luka was during his last season with Real Madrid, so you just get a complete picture of how dominant Luka was at his age. I have noticed this a lot with Euroleague basketball. It's like it's a bunch of coaches from the Poppovich and Carlisle tree. You'll see guys who are projected lottery picks, and they're 3rd/4th on the depth chart. And Euroleague spreads the minutes around. The worst thing you can be in the Euroleague is young, it seems like.

Tyler Dorsey (remember him? could barely do anything on that Hawks' team before Trae Young showed up. All those minutes, all those opportunities, and he did very little with them). That's the guy who got 16 minutes in this one. To answer HairyGOATee's question about which Euroleaguers you might want to see the Mavs take a look at. This kid Yovel Zoosman was the real beneficiary, playing 23 minutes 13 pts 2 rebs 1 asst 1 stl. Young kid who just signed an extension with Maccabi & has had a couple of real nice games recently. I think he's 22.

So, unfortunately, I think we won't get much of a read on Advija from his Euroleague play, which isn't unusual. The same can be said for Porzingis, and pretty much anybody not named Luka. It's amazing not only how much playing time he received, but how dominant he was at that age. Once you really learned that... I just remember folks on the dallas-mavs.com forum talking about we'll be alright with Mo Bamba or even Mikal Bridges... and you just had to think, "How special might this Doncic kid be?"

I remember when Steph came out of college, and I was thinking "this might be the best 6th man in the history of the NBA" Lol missed the mark by a bit on that, but a lot of people didn't even think he'd stick in the league because of an underdeveloped body & poor size.

I think when you draft, the approach should be look for unique talent, look at the positives when they're off the charts and place your bets on those remarkable players.

I hate the teams that play it safe in the draft. I think that's how you become the Charlotte Hornets.

[deb]

Update on the kid I'm liking so far. Deni Advija. Nate Wolters (lol remember him?) missed today's game for Maccabi Fox Tel Aviv, which, in theory, would have opened up some minutes for Advija. He played 8 minutes (Euroleague games are only 40 minutes) 0/1 FG 1 reb 1 asst.

Advija is about the same age Luka was during his last season with Real Madrid, so you just get a complete picture of how dominant Luka was at his age. I have noticed this a lot with Euroleague basketball. It's like it's a bunch of coaches from the Poppovich and Carlisle tree. You'll see guys who are projected lottery picks, and they're 3rd/4th on the depth chart. And Euroleague spreads the minutes around. The worst thing you can be in the Euroleague is young, it seems like.

Spoiler:

Tyler Dorsey (remember him? could barely do anything on that Hawks' team before Trae Young showed up. All those minutes, all those opportunities, and he did very little with them). That's the guy who got 16 minutes in this one. To answer HairyGOATee's question about which Euroleaguers you might want to see the Mavs take a look at. This kid Yovel Zoosman was the real beneficiary, playing 23 minutes 13 pts 2 rebs 1 asst 1 stl. Young kid who just signed an extension with Maccabi & has had a couple of real nice games recently. I think he's 22.

So, unfortunately, I think we won't get much of a read on Advija from his Euroleague play, which isn't unusual. The same can be said for Porzingis, and pretty much anybody not named Luka. It's amazing not only how much playing time he received, but how dominant he was at that age. Once you really learned that... I just remember folks on the dallas-mavs.com forum talking about we'll be alright with Mo Bamba or even Mikal Bridges... and you just had to think, "How special might this Doncic kid be?"

I remember when Steph came out of college, and I was thinking "this might be the best 6th man in the history of the NBA" Lol missed the mark by a bit on that, but a lot of people didn't even think he'd stick in the league because of an underdeveloped body & poor size.

I think when you draft, the approach should be look for unique talent, look at the positives when they're off the charts and place your bets on those remarkable players.

I hate the teams that play it safe in the draft. I think that's how you become the Charlotte Hornets.

The thing about Euroleague is, it's all about winning. And as a rule you can't win anything with kids. In Euroleague, prospetcs first have to prove in training and then in games, that they are better than the veteran player starting, they're not just gifted the starting position due to potential. It's extremely rare to see someone as young as Doncic dominate and do it on the biggest team in the league. Next time an 18 year old does the Euroleague the way Doncic did, just go get him in the draft. It probably won't happen for the next 20 years though...

NBA on the other hand, if you're not a contender, isn't about winning. Draft lottery, salary cap etc. makes for some interesting mental gymnastics. Where teams will just give free reigns to inefficient kids to run teams and shoot them to a high pick next year. Think of it this way, who is the better player right now, CP3 or Trae Young? And who in their right mind would trade Young for CP3? In Europe, teams would take CP3 over Young if they could afford him every time, because he's a better player right now. If they had some leftover money they'd still sign Young and have him come off the bench for CP3....

[DJ_3_Ball]

Here's somebody interesting. I don't know much about him, yet. But, I saw this highlight video, and the shooting is impressive. Quick release, no hesitation, probably best as a catch & shoot shooter, but looks comfortable coming off of curls, creating his own space off the dribble, or pulling up in transition.

ISAIAH JOE - 6'5 Soph SG Arkansas, this guy has NBA range. In fact, he seems more comfortable shooting a few feet beyond the college 3 point arc. You give him 6 inches of daylight, and he's going to let it fly. He's not bashful. Set an Arkansas school record for made 3PM last season with 113. He shot 41.4% last year (as a freshman) on 3s.

This year, the %s aren't as good. Shooting 33.3% 3PM and shooting 35.2% FGs vs some really trash opponents. Yet, this doesn't seem like a very talented group for Arkansas, certainly not widely heralded (which goes for Isaiah too, I don't think he was an ESPN Top 100 player in high school, which usually doesn't translate to 1st round draft pick). Also, Daniel Gafford's departure couldn't have helped. Joe looks like he's receiving the defense's full attention, and again I think he functions a bit better as a catch & shoot type player.

You get traces of Rip Hamilton in his game, a slight feel of Bradley Beal. He's got a lot of work to do before he ever reaches that level. Plus, the guy is probably a buck seventy dripping wet. Looks like he's never seen the inside of a weight room, but he has some basketball instincts.

He's currently being projected in the mid 20s, which is where the Mavs will most likely pick. Although, I've seen him labeled as the "best shooter in the class", which by draft night propelled Cameron Johnson from a mid 20s mock to the 11th overall pick. It's funny, because Cameron Johnson is the EXACT player I think the Mavericks need. I don't think the Mavs need much to be a title contender. You give Luka a knock down shooter on the perimeter. You give him Kyle Korver in his prime, and watch the fireworks!

I'll be keeping my eye on Isaiah Joe this season. He plays in the SEC, so we'll certainly get to see him vs top competition.

Watch on YouTube

[DJ_3_Ball]

The thing about Euroleague is, it's all about winning. And as a rule you can't win anything with kids. In Euroleague, prospetcs first have to prove in training and then in games, that they are better than the veteran player starting, they're not just gifted the starting position due to potential. It's extremely rare to see someone as young as Doncic dominate and do it on the biggest team in the league. Next time an 18 year old does the Euroleague the way Doncic did, just go get him in the draft. It probably won't happen for the next 20 years though...

NBA on the other hand, if you're not a contender, isn't about winning. Draft lottery, salary cap etc. makes for some interesting mental gymnastics. Where teams will just give free reigns to inefficient kids to run teams and shoot them to a high pick next year. Think of it this way, who is the better player right now, CP3 or Trae Young? And who in their right mind would trade Young for CP3? In Europe, teams would take CP3 over Young if they could afford him every time, because he's a better player right now. If they had some leftover money they'd still sign Young and have him come off the bench for CP3....

Yeah makes sense, because of relegation. The CP3 to Trae Young analogy really illustrates your point well.

The other side of that coin is Tyler Dorsey played 16 min in that game and Advija only 8 min. I don't know if Advija is worthy of an NBA lottery pick, but I know this much. If Advija isn't better than Tyler Dorsey, right this minute, then he isn't worthy of a 1st round pick. I watched Tyler Dorsey with Atlanta, the year before Trae Young arrived, ouch! 37.7% FG shooting. Dorsey is a career 66.9% FT shooter in the NBA. Dorsey is not an NBA player. Not sure he's much better in the Euroleague, honestly.

It seems like the preference is to keep the 18 year olds on the bench until they can grow a full beard. Lol.

But, yeah, relegation is a definite factor I wasn't thinking of. I mean, I've been following basketball since before Kevin Garnett skipped college & jumped to the pros. Kobe the year after. T-Mac the year after that. When those guys started having success, NBA teams changed their philosophy. Well a lot of teams did.

It's not just about playing the young kids if you suck so you get another high draft pick. It's about developing that one guy you hope is a megastar, so by the time he's reaching his prime, he's fully developed & ready to lead a team to a title. You don't want Brandon Ingram, for example, to be stuck on the bench in Los Angeles. Kissing LeBron's ring and playing the Game of Zones "We must pass first to Lebron now, Brandon"... You want a guy like that to get minutes, get touches, have his opportunities. That's happening for Brandon Ingram this year because he isn't stuck on the bench anymore. He's not 4th in the pecking order. Even before LeBron, they were feeding Julius Randle and Lou Williams and Jordan Clarkston and even Nick Young before they looked at Brandon Ingram.

That's the wrong approach. Case in point from those Lakers' teams, during Ingram's time there, Thomas Bryant. You gotta guy whose in a McDonald's All American. You roster him for the season, but only play him in 15 games for 4.8 mpg and then waive him at the end of the year. You didn't even get to see what the kid could do. The Washington Wizards, scoop him up & say thank you very much, and he looks like he's well on his way to having a very productive career with them.

Seems like the Euroleague teams would rather be the 8th seed & 1st round exit out of the playoffs every year for 20 years in a row, then actually swing for the fences on occasion & win a title. So, yes & no, doesn't seem like they're "playing to win". Seems like they're playing not to lose. There's a difference.

[J_T]

Seems like the Euroleague teams would rather be the 8th seed & 1st round exit out of the playoffs every year for 20 years in a row, then actually swing for the fences on occasion & win a title. So, yes & no, doesn't seem like they're "playing to win". Seems like they're playing not to lose. There's a difference.

There is no draft in Europe so your analogy is off. Every win in Europe is always beneficial because it makes team sponsors (yes, sponsors) happy and the teams get prize money for every win. Also in Europe if you are not winning, the arenas will generally be empty. Empty arena means no money. Since you can spend infinite money in Europe more money equals better chance to win. In Europe clubs actually have to battle for every cent of their budget.

[DJ_3_Ball]

Seems like the Euroleague teams would rather be the 8th seed & 1st round exit out of the playoffs every year for 20 years in a row, then actually swing for the fences on occasion & win a title. So, yes & no, doesn't seem like they're "playing to win". Seems like they're playing not to lose. There's a difference.

There is no draft in Europe so your analogy is off. Every win in Europe is always beneficial because it makes team sponsors (yes, sponsors) happy and the teams get prize money for every win. Also in Europe if you are not winning, the arenas will generally be empty. Empty arena means no money. Since you can spend infinite money in Europe more money equals better chance to win. In Europe clubs actually have to battle for every cent of their budget.

Yeah, but they're not battling to "win it all".

When did I bring up the draft?

I'm talking about they are fully onboard with limiting their upside because their first, second, third, fourth, and fifth concern is limiting their floor. If their floor is making the playoffs every season and not facing relegation, then they're okay with never having a realistic shot to win it all.

That's not how American sports work. Most teams, anyways, they're competing for a title. Not to be Real Madrid's bitch for the next 30 years. Every once in a while, we like to jump up and bitch slap Real Madrid & let'em know we got some bite in our bark too.

I don't see the Euroleague teams managing their roster that way.

But, I mean. I get it. You gotta pay bills. But, I don't understand the fans' mentality. Give me 19 years of losing for 1 title >>>> 20 years of being average and never winning anything.

[deb]

Yeah, and if a veteran player wins you one game more this year and a youngster might potentially win you three more games in five years, but will cost you a game or two this year? It's all win now in Europe, develop youngstersI second.

In reality it's not that simple of course. You have teams playing in European leagues that have laughably low budgets compared to the big guys. And these teams have to develop youngsters, because a) they can't afford veterans, b) if they develop a youngster, they can sell them off to the big teams and make some money. This is how a lot of ex-Yu teams stay afloat and it might be part of the reason, why small ex-YU countries generally outperform bigger nations, because they are more focused on talent production...

[DJ_3_Ball]

Yeah, and if a veteran player wins you one game more this year and a youngster might potentially win you three more games in five years, but will cost you a game or two this year? It's all win now in Europe, develop youngstersI second.

In reality it's not that simple of course. You have teams playing in European leagues that have laughably low budgets compared to the big guys. And these teams have to develop youngsters, because a) they can't afford veterans, b) if they develop a youngster, they can sell them off to the big teams and make some money. This is how a lot of ex-Yu teams stay afloat and it might be part of the reason, why small ex-YU countries generally outperform bigger nations, because they are more focused on talent production...

Why wouldn't a guy like say Zach Norvell Jr, who was just waived by the Lakers, go sign with one of these smaller teams (one of the teams you said can't afford veterans)? Norvell was impressive during the NBA Summer League, but he couldn't find the court with the Lakers.

If I'm Norvell, I accept the paltry salary to go play for a Euroleague team, get the minutes (I'd have to have that in my contract, though. I can't be taking a haircut on my salary to go over there and ride the bench. The whole thing is about opportunity for him), and then if I'm Norvell, I light up Shane Larkin, I light up Nikola Mirotic, I drop 30 on Lorenzo Brown. And, I show NBA teams that the Lakers just made the same mistake with me that they made with Thomas Bryant 2 years ago.

Why don't more guys like that, players in Norvell's spot, go over there and take advantage of that revenue discrepancy? In your opinion.

[J_T]

Seems like the Euroleague teams would rather be the 8th seed & 1st round exit out of the playoffs every year for 20 years in a row, then actually swing for the fences on occasion & win a title. So, yes & no, doesn't seem like they're "playing to win". Seems like they're playing not to lose. There's a difference.

There is no draft in Europe so your analogy is off. Every win in Europe is always beneficial because it makes team sponsors (yes, sponsors) happy and the teams get prize money for every win. Also in Europe if you are not winning, the arenas will generally be empty. Empty arena means no money. Since you can spend infinite money in Europe more money equals better chance to win. In Europe clubs actually have to battle for every cent of their budget.

Yeah, but they're not battling to "win it all".

When did I bring up the draft?

I'm talking about they are fully onboard with limiting their upside because their first, second, third, fourth, and fifth concern is limiting their floor. If their floor is making the playoffs every season and not facing relegation, then they're okay with never having a realistic shot to win it all.

That's not how American sports work. Most teams, anyways, they're competing for a title. Not to be Real Madrid's bitch for the next 30 years. Every once in a while, we like to jump up and bitch slap Real Madrid & let'em know we got some bite in our bark too.

I don't see the Euroleague teams managing their roster that way.

But, I mean. I get it. You gotta pay bills. But, I don't understand the fans' mentality. Give me 19 years of losing for 1 title >>>> 20 years of being average and never winning anything.

European teams are heavily involved in developing their players, they have academies that can go down to 6 years old kids. They go all in on development because there is no draft and if they develop a good player, he will play for the same club. They don't need to rush him into the main squad.
As for no winning mentality, Suns have never won a title and there are teams that go back 60 years without a title. There are many NBA teams that have never even played in the Finals. Sure, you can SAY you are competing, but are you really. Strange things can happen in basketball and European basketball is no different. Anyone could potentially develop a great cheap team with massive sponsors behind them and go for the win. Also, don't forget that national championships actually matter and there is no Real Madrid or CSKA Moscow there.

[deb]

Seems like the Euroleague teams would rather be the 8th seed & 1st round exit out of the playoffs every year for 20 years in a row, then actually swing for the fences on occasion & win a title. So, yes & no, doesn't seem like they're "playing to win". Seems like they're playing not to lose. There's a difference.

There is no draft in Europe so your analogy is off. Every win in Europe is always beneficial because it makes team sponsors (yes, sponsors) happy and the teams get prize money for every win. Also in Europe if you are not winning, the arenas will generally be empty. Empty arena means no money. Since you can spend infinite money in Europe more money equals better chance to win. In Europe clubs actually have to battle for every cent of their budget.

Yeah, but they're not battling to "win it all".

When did I bring up the draft?

I'm talking about they are fully onboard with limiting their upside because their first, second, third, fourth, and fifth concern is limiting their floor. If their floor is making the playoffs every season and not facing relegation, then they're okay with never having a realistic shot to win it all.

That's not how American sports work. Most teams, anyways, they're competing for a title. Not to be Real Madrid's bitch for the next 30 years. Every once in a while, we like to jump up and bitch slap Real Madrid & let'em know we got some bite in our bark too.

I don't see the Euroleague teams managing their roster that way.

But, I mean. I get it. You gotta pay bills. But, I don't understand the fans' mentality. Give me 19 years of losing for 1 title >>>> 20 years of being average and never winning anything.

1. The playing field in Euroleague is actually more even than in the NBA. Real won the Euroleague twice in the last ten years

2. Pretty much every Euroleague team is competing for the title, they are not sucking on purpose for the next n-years to maybe win it one day, they're trying to win it today. When trying to win as many games as possible, ceiling is not that important. It's what might be vs what is. It's wishful thinking...

3. As for Avdija not outperforming Dorsey, Avdija is 18, Dorsey is 23 and has multiple NBA seasons behind him, last year he basically averaged 10 ppg in the NBA and Avdija was 17. Dorsey, if you put him on a college team right now, would destroy the NCAA, while Avdija would first have to adapt. This is something Americans just don't seem to understand, 18 year olds as a rule are just not mature, experienced, skilled enough to win against grown men. Maccabi for example, would just feast on NCAA teams, while playing Dorsey, who wasn't all that good in the NBA...

[FelixD]

Most Euro prospects are massively overrated thanks to Doncic. People dont want to miss the next him but Luka is probably the best euro prospect ever.Comparing him to other prospects is kinda yikes.

Luka also benefitted from the plague of injuries Real suffered last year that makes him a starter, dont make me wrong, he exceeded expectations but if the injuries of players like Llul hadnt happened, he probably wouldnt be the Euroleague MVP.

[DJ_3_Ball]

1. The playing field in Euroleague is actually more even than in the NBA. Real won the Euroleague twice in the last ten years

2. Pretty much every Euroleague team is competing for the title, they are not sucking on purpose for the next n-years to maybe win it one day, they're trying to win it today. When trying to win as many games as possible, ceiling is not that important. It's what might be vs what is. It's wishful thinking...

3. As for Avdija not outperforming Dorsey, Avdija is 18, Dorsey is 23 and has multiple NBA seasons behind him, last year he basically averaged 10 ppg in the NBA and Avdija was 17. Dorsey, if you put him on a college team right now, would destroy the NCAA, while Avdija would first have to adapt. This is something Americans just don't seem to understand, 18 year olds as a rule are just not mature, experienced, skilled enough to win against grown men. Maccabi for example, would just feast on NCAA teams, while playing Dorsey, who wasn't all that good in the NBA...

Avdija is being described as potential top 3 pick. I saw him mocked as 3rd overall in an updated mock draft last year. These things tend to go one way and that's up the draftboard for a player like Avdija. They'll focus on his upside, they'll downplay his weaknesses with the idea he'll develop & improve those areas. He'll of gone from a "possible lottery pick" to maybe the #1 overall pick. Especially by the time Luka is locking up the MVP & whoever is drafting #1 wants their next Luka too.

What I'm saying is guys who fit that profile. T-Mac, Kobe, KG, etc. Guys who could of stepped onto the floor in the Euroleague at 17 and dominated, well not T-Mac (he actually was a later bloomer in high school. Totally unheard of as a high school prospect until the summer before his senior year at the Adidas ABCD camp... anyways, I digress). There are 17 year olds who can step on the floor and handle Euroleague competition, and they're a hell of a lot better than Tyler Dorsey.

I can't believe you threw Tyler Dorsey's 9.8 ppg with Memphis out there. You want a double digit #? How about his career 10.5 PER. That's the Tyler Dorsey I watched in the NBA, and it wasn't an NBA player.

We can agree to disagree, but what I am saying is it's Black & White. Either Advija is as good as advertised and Maccabi is playing a lesser player over him, or he's not as good as advertised.

And hell, I only know about Tyler Dorsey because he is an American and played in the NBA. I'm sure there's lots of guys that aren't as good but get more minutes because they're the "safer" choice.

As for #2, do you think the Detroit Pistons are competing for a title? Because if the qualification is "not sucking on purpose" then the Pistons deserve consideration. They went out and signed two veterans, Derrick Rose & Markieff Morris this summer. Now, they don't have a snowball's chance in hell of actually winning the NBA championship, but they're not sucking on purpose. If anything, they're delaying their time table to actually draft a transcendent player & have a legitimate shot at winning an NBA title again.

[deb]

1. The playing field in Euroleague is actually more even than in the NBA. Real won the Euroleague twice in the last ten years

2. Pretty much every Euroleague team is competing for the title, they are not sucking on purpose for the next n-years to maybe win it one day, they're trying to win it today. When trying to win as many games as possible, ceiling is not that important. It's what might be vs what is. It's wishful thinking...

3. As for Avdija not outperforming Dorsey, Avdija is 18, Dorsey is 23 and has multiple NBA seasons behind him, last year he basically averaged 10 ppg in the NBA and Avdija was 17. Dorsey, if you put him on a college team right now, would destroy the NCAA, while Avdija would first have to adapt. This is something Americans just don't seem to understand, 18 year olds as a rule are just not mature, experienced, skilled enough to win against grown men. Maccabi for example, would just feast on NCAA teams, while playing Dorsey, who wasn't all that good in the NBA...

Avdija is being described as potential top 3 pick. I saw him mocked as 3rd overall in an updated mock draft last year. These things tend to go one way and that's up the draftboard for a player like Avdija. They'll focus on his upside, they'll downplay his weaknesses with the idea he'll develop & improve those areas. He'll of gone from a "possible lottery pick" to maybe the #1 overall pick. Especially by the time Luka is locking up the MVP & whoever is drafting #1 wants their next Luka too.

What I'm saying is guys who fit that profile. T-Mac, Kobe, KG, etc. Guys who could of stepped onto the floor in the Euroleague at 17 and dominated, well not T-Mac (he actually was a later bloomer in high school. Totally unheard of as a high school prospect until the summer before his senior year at the Adidas ABCD camp... anyways, I digress). There are 17 year olds who can step on the floor and handle Euroleague competition, and they're a hell of a lot better than Tyler Dorsey.

I can't believe you threw Tyler Dorsey's 9.8 ppg with Memphis out there. You want a double digit #? How about his career 10.5 PER. That's the Tyler Dorsey I watched in the NBA, and it wasn't an NBA player.

We can agree to disagree, but what I am saying is it's Black & White. Either Advija is as good as advertised and Maccabi is playing a lesser player over him, or he's not as good as advertised.

And hell, I only know about Tyler Dorsey because he is an American and played in the NBA. I'm sure there's lots of guys that aren't as good but get more minutes because they're the "safer" choice.

As for #2, do you think the Detroit Pistons are competing for a title? Because if the qualification is "not sucking on purpose" then the Pistons deserve consideration. They went out and signed two veterans, Derrick Rose & Markieff Morris this summer. Now, they don't have a snowball's chance in hell of actually winning the NBA championship, but they're not sucking on purpose. If anything, they're delaying their time table to actually draft a transcendent player & have a legitimate shot at winning an NBA title again.

There are European NBA stars that never played in the Euroleague (Nowitzki, Porzingis, Greek Freak, Tony Parker,...) and then there are NBA washouts that did (Bargnani, Vesely,...). Anthony Parker for example was a Euroleague star and a fairly average NBA player... It's never black and white. There's a lot of stuff that an average 18 year old isn't all that accustomed to that a less talented but more experienced player is, like being counted on to perform day in day out regardless of stuff going on outside of basketball court, listening to the coach and doing what needs to be done on the court even if its not glamorous, being a professional, living away from family and friends and so on.

It is true it is really difficult to evaluate European youngsters when they're not playing a lot. You can only glance at the potential, whether that potential will actually amount to something in the NBA is difficult to gauge. That is why, when you have an 18 year old perform in the Euroleague as Doncic had, you now he's going to be a star, while his classmates barely see any minutes.

And it is very probable that because of Lukamania, scouts are going to overvalue European prospect in the future again and we'll see a lot of high lotto busts because of it.

As to how good Avdija is, I have no clue. To me he reeks of Bender, who played about as much as Avdija for Maccabi before being the fourth pick in 2016...

As for not sucking on purpose, I don't know what to tell you. You said yourself a couple of posts back that you can't see majority of American teams go for high floor low ceiling rosters, what are the Pistons doing then? European teams have a set budget and they're trying to get the most out said budget. (The budgets in contrast to the NBA vary greatly in the Eurolegue by the way, richest teams can have ten times the budget of poor teams). Organizing the whole team around an inexperienced and inefficient youngster generally isn't conducive to winning basketball right now, even if there's a chance in five years time that youngster turns out to be a star. Most Euroleague teams just aren't going to bomb their competitiveness for the next few years hoping for a payoff down the line that might never come. An NBA team will be alright if that prospect turns out to be a scrub, they'll still be in the league earning the big bucks, they'll just retool through the draft, a Euroleague team might be out of the league completely...

[dirkforpres]

I don’t really care much about this draft. Hopefully Dallas can get lucky with their late first though and find a guy like Philly did with Thybulle.

Don’t be surprised if they trade up though. Might be able to trade up and to get in the 14 or 15 range

[DJ_3_Ball]

I don’t really care much about this draft. Hopefully Dallas can get lucky with their late first though and find a guy like Philly did with Thybulle.

Don’t be surprised if they trade up though. Might be able to trade up and to get in the 14 or 15 range

I didn't care much about it either, at first. But, when you think about it. Ya know... how is this team going to improve?

Let's say they move that GSW 2nd round pick and get Iguodala. Let's say they sign a veteran buyout at the deadline, and they are genuinely a better team this year. Let's even say they shock everyone and win a 2nd round playoff series and lose in 6 games to the Lakers or Clippers in the WCF.

That's a real possibility. Unlikely maybe, but possible. But then what about next year? Iguodala will be a FA, and even if the Mavs resign him. He'll just be 36 going on 37. Whoever the other veteran MLE player is will just be another year older. The early 2nd round pick will be gone because we dealt it for Iguodala. The Mavs 2021 1st round pick is unprotected. That's going to the Knicks no matter what.

And, next year in free agency. I think we might have a shot at signing Bogdan Bogdanovic away from the Kings. IF the Kings are not willing to match, and IF the Mavs have an interest. I think there will be a few teams that offer him a contract as well. With Atlanta's cap room, if they want him, they'll get him. I wouldn't call the Mavs chances with Bogdanovic likely. Maybe 30% at best. A guy like Brandon Ingram, that's a 5% chance hail mary. Ya know? I don't see any other FAs in the 2020 class that move the needle for me.

That leaves this 2020 1st round pick. This is the player who might make an impact. Because let's be honest, while we hope Luka will be the key to getting FAs to sign here in the big 2021 FA class, what do you fear? I fear another strikeout on all fronts---like usual. This 2020 1st round pick is going to be a Maverick (unless they just totally whiff), he'll be under team control on a friendly contract. This guy has a chance to be contributor in the 2021-2022 season.

It's an important pick. I'm with you, though. I can see them trading up. I hope they do. I hope they have their eye on somebody & they fall down far enough where the Mavs can trade up & snag them. Because this player is going to be needed. He's the only sure thing the Mavs have going for the next 2 seasons.

[DJ_3_Ball]

There are European NBA stars that never played in the Euroleague (Nowitzki, Porzingis, Greek Freak, Tony Parker,...) and then there are NBA washouts that did (Bargnani, Vesely,...). Anthony Parker for example was a Euroleague star and a fairly average NBA player... It's never black and white. There's a lot of stuff that an average 18 year old isn't all that accustomed to that a less talented but more experienced player is, like being counted on to perform day in day out regardless of stuff going on outside of basketball court, listening to the coach and doing what needs to be done on the court even if its not glamorous, being a professional, living away from family and friends and so on.

It is true it is really difficult to evaluate European youngsters when they're not playing a lot. You can only glance at the potential, whether that potential will actually amount to something in the NBA is difficult to gauge. That is why, when you have an 18 year old perform in the Euroleague as Doncic had, you now he's going to be a star, while his classmates barely see any minutes.

And it is very probable that because of Lukamania, scouts are going to overvalue European prospect in the future again and we'll see a lot of high lotto busts because of it.

As to how good Avdija is, I have no clue. To me he reeks of Bender, who played about as much as Avdija for Maccabi before being the fourth pick in 2016...

As for not sucking on purpose, I don't know what to tell you. You said yourself a couple of posts back that you can't see majority of American teams go for high floor low ceiling rosters, what are the Pistons doing then? European teams have a set budget and they're trying to get the most out said budget. (The budgets in contrast to the NBA vary greatly in the Eurolegue by the way, richest teams can have ten times the budget of poor teams). Organizing the whole team around an inexperienced and inefficient youngster generally isn't conducive to winning basketball right now, even if there's a chance in five years time that youngster turns out to be a star. Most Euroleague teams just aren't going to bomb their competitiveness for the next few years hoping for a payoff down the line that might never come. An NBA team will be alright if that prospect turns out to be a scrub, they'll still be in the league earning the big bucks, they'll just retool through the draft, a Euroleague team might be out of the league completely...

First, thank you for sharing your insights into the Euroleague. I may sound like I think I'm authoritative on the subject, but I'm only coming from an American perspective. I know little about the Euroleague at this point.

With that said, some of your points don't resonate with me, and I think that's just due to my incomplete understanding of Euroleague basketball. So, I'm going to leave the conversation for now, until I understand things better.

I was going to say, though. Porzingis is said to not have received minutes in the Euroleague. He's one of examples in my mind where the Euroleague failed due to a bias towards youth. Looking back at his career history, I see that he was in the ACB Liga, which is I guess one step below the Euroleague. Although, he did play several Euroleague teams (Baskonia, Real Madrid, Barcelona, maybe others?) in his final season before declaring for the NBA draft. So maybe that's where the confusion lies?

[deb]

His team was not good enough to qualify for the euroleague. He did play in the Eurocup, which is the second tier pan-european competition. Generally speaking, the biggest teams in Europe have multi year contracts to play in the euroleague. Then there are some that qualify for the euroleague through high positions in the national championships. And if you're too low in the standing of national league, no Euroleague for you...

[JamesConway]

My unicorn-alert just went off

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[JamesConway]

Tankathon has him at #27 right now. 7 footer, 7'3 wingspan, but plays like a wing.

I won't even try to spell his name