Predict Mavs Wins

J_T · Post #1 » by **J_T** » Sun Jan 5, 2020 1:22 pm

Currently Mavs are 22-13, good for 6th in the conference, but with a respectable 63% win rate.

Here is the remaining schedule:

Spoiler:

Predict what will the record after 82nd game. Poll options have also the winning record required for the remaining 47 games to hit the stated win range. So 45 - 47 wins means that Mavs would win around 51% of the remaining games.

You can share some extra views on the schedule or how you expect the season to go. I will say that I see 8 games with winning chances 80% or better and 8 games with winning chances 35% or lower. I consider Mavs to be at least a slight fav in 31 games.

My vote goes for 48 - 50 (57% rest).

Imon · Post #2 » by **Imon** » Sun Jan 5, 2020 5:49 pm

Really depends on how healthy the team can remain going forward.
KP will receive some load-management, sure, we knew this before the season started but if he plays most of the rest of the games I think this team has a shot to win 60% or more of their games.
Also, the Mavs need to avoid bizarre freak-injuries like the one THJ got while dunking. I know hindsight is 20/20 but he should have just laid the ball in. It's not like Lebron was right behind him ready for the chase down block.

J_T · Post #3 » by **J_T** » Sun Jan 5, 2020 6:15 pm

Imon wrote:Really depends on how healthy the team can remain going forward.
KP will receive some load-management, sure, we knew this before the season started but if he plays most of the rest of the games I think this team has a shot to win 60% or more of their games.
Also, the Mavs need to avoid bizarre freak-injuries like the one THJ got while dunking. I know hindsight is 20/20 but he should have just laid the ball in. It's not like Lebron was right behind him ready for the chase down block.

Didn't they ditch the B2B load management plans? I know there was one where they played so little in first game that he then also played the second one. But I could have sworn that the B2B after that KP was also playing both. You think that they are going to back to load management because of the knee?

Imon · Post #4 » by **Imon** » Sun Jan 5, 2020 6:37 pm

J_T wrote:
Imon wrote:Really depends on how healthy the team can remain going forward.
KP will receive some load-management, sure, we knew this before the season started but if he plays most of the rest of the games I think this team has a shot to win 60% or more of their games.
Also, the Mavs need to avoid bizarre freak-injuries like the one THJ got while dunking. I know hindsight is 20/20 but he should have just laid the ball in. It's not like Lebron was right behind him ready for the chase down block.

Didn't they ditch the B2B load management plans? I know there was one where they played so little in first game that he then also played the second one. But I could have sworn that the B2B after that KP was also playing both. You think that they are going to back to load management because of the knee?

I'm pretty sure in the b2b games KP played in he was under 30 minutes in the first game.
Either because they were blowouts or because he was in foul trouble.

BlueSan · Post #5 » by **BlueSan** » Sun Jan 5, 2020 10:02 pm

Here are my predictions bar some injuries to mostly Luka and Porzingis, but especially Luka

W - 36 Mon, Jan 6, 2020 Chicago Bulls
L - 37 Wed, Jan 8, 2020 Denver Nuggets
L - 38 Fri, Jan 10, 2020 Los Angeles Lakers
L - 39 Sat, Jan 11, 2020 Philadelphia 76ers
W - 40 Tue, Jan 14, 2020 @ Golden State Warriors
L - 41 Wed, Jan 15, 2020 @ Sacramento Kings
W - 42 Fri, Jan 17, 2020 Portland Trail Blazers
L - 43 Tue, Jan 21, 2020 Los Angeles Clippers
L - 44 Thu, Jan 23, 2020 @ Portland Trail Blazers
L - 45 Sat, Jan 25, 2020 @ Utah Jazz
W - 46 Mon, Jan 27, 2020 @ Oklahoma City Thunder
W - 47 Tue, Jan 28, 2020 Phoenix Suns
L - 48 Fri, Jan 31, 2020 @ Houston Rockets
L - 49 Sat, Feb 1, 2020 Atlanta Hawks
L - 50 Mon, Feb 3, 2020 @ Indiana Pacers
W - 51 Wed, Feb 5, 2020 Memphis Grizzlies
W - 52 Fri, Feb 7, 2020 @ Washington Wizards
W - 53 Sat, Feb 8, 2020 @ Charlotte Hornets
W - 54 Mon, Feb 10, 2020 Utah Jazz
W - 55 Wed, Feb 12, 2020 Sacramento Kings
W - 56 Fri, Feb 21, 2020 @ Orlando Magic
L - 57 Sat, Feb 22, 2020 @ Atlanta Hawks
W - 58 Mon, Feb 24, 2020 Minnesota Timberwolves
L - 59 Wed, Feb 26, 2020 @ San Antonio Spurs
L - 60 Fri, Feb 28, 2020 @ Miami Heat
W - 61 Sun, Mar 1, 2020 @ Minnesota Timberwolves
W - 62 Mon, Mar 2, 2020 @ Chicago Bulls
L - 63 Wed, Mar 4, 2020 New Orleans Pelicans
W - 64 Fri, Mar 6, 2020 Memphis Grizzlies
L - 65 Sun, Mar 8, 2020 Indiana Pacers
L - 66 Tue, Mar 10, 2020 @ San Antonio Spurs
L - 67 Wed, Mar 11, 2020 Denver Nuggets
W - 68 Sat, Mar 14, 2020 Phoenix Suns
L - 69 Mon, Mar 16, 2020 @ Los Angeles Clippers
L - 70 Tue, Mar 17, 2020 @ Sacramento Kings
L - 71 Thu, Mar 19, 2020 @ Portland Trail Blazers
L - 72 Sat, Mar 21, 2020 @ Phoenix Suns
L - 73 Mon, Mar 23, 2020 Houston Rockets
L - 74 Thu, Mar 26, 2020 Utah Jazz
L - 75 Sun, Mar 29, 2020 Milwaukee Bucks
W - 76 Wed, Apr 1, 2020 @ Minnesota Timberwolves
L - 77 Fri, Apr 3, 2020 @ Memphis Grizzlies
L - 78 Sun, Apr 5, 2020 @ Brooklyn Nets
L - 79 Tue, Apr 7, 2020 Houston Rockets
W - 80 Sat, Apr 11, 2020 Detroit Pistons
L - 81 Mon, Apr 13, 2020 @ Denver Nuggets
W - 82 Wed, Apr 15, 2020 Oklahoma City Thunder

So yeah that is another 20 wins in my books

I could maybe see them winning one of the two games with Atlanta and maybe one more win against Portland and the only upset I have written above is basically against Clippers at home the next one that is coming. So yeah in my books

42 - 44 wins by the end of the season

I know I am in the minority here and that may not be popular but before the season started I didn't see Dallas in the playoffs actually

1. Then Golden state suffered injuries
2. Then New Orleans lost ZION and also some other guys like Lonzo etc for a certain period
3. OKC had to readjust
4. Utah started very weak Portland started really weak and San Antonio has been underperforming

So yeah I think the more season will come to an end the more things will normalize.
1. I see Portland doing much better and ending the season definitely in the playoff spot 6-7
2. I see New Orleans finishing strong on the wings of ZION if he comes back
3. I see OKC fighting it out unless they trade this season in this deadline
4. I see San Antonio coming out swinging before all is said and done
5. I see Utah finishing strong and ending the season top 5 for sure

So I think Dallas will fight for that 8 spot because of the good start and whatnot, but I think if they make it it will be by the skin of their teeth

J_T · Post #6 » by **J_T** » Tue Jan 7, 2020 1:04 pm

Interesting spread so far. The option with 45% win rate is quite pessimistic. What I mean is that whoever votes for it is basically saying that Mavs right now are not top 8 team in the west. I think that they are still playing like a top 8 Western team. It's not that they are superb, but the other teams are just not that amazing. If we look at teams 8th-13th, their last 10 records are: 5-5, 5-5, 4-6, 4-6, 3-7 and 2-8. So none of them have been better than Mavs and this has been a really rough stretch for the Mavs.

I think that seeding will be a problem, though. Mavs will have to start winning again, because teams like OKC and Jazz are getting things done. If they don't elevate their game and KP doesn't get back, they will end as a 7th seed and I would be disappointed if that happens.

J_T · Post #7 » by **J_T** » Tue Jan 7, 2020 10:37 pm

I just saw this chart from few days ago which I find very interesting.

It shows that Mavs actually have 9th easiest schedule for the remainder of the season.

BlueSan · Post #8 » by **BlueSan** » Sat Jan 11, 2020 9:50 am

So far I am dead on -_-

J_T · Post #9 » by **J_T** » Sat Jan 11, 2020 12:51 pm

BlueSan wrote:So far I am dead on -_-

I'm also dead on, but I still ended with more wins in the end. I even went against "market consensus" that Mavs were fav against Nuggets which I didn't believe was true. It's still a long season and KP is coming back.

DJ_3_Ball · Post #10 » by **DJ_3_Ball** » Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:02 am

I actually have the Mavs in the 54+ range. I think they're going through a little spell right now. But, overall I think it'll be good for them. I think they're a tough group by & large, and I think they'll get on another 10-1 run here in the second half of the season and cruise into a top 5 seed, mostly likely right at 54-56 wins and the 4th seed. Something like that.

J_T · Post #11 » by **J_T** » Wed Jan 15, 2020 12:27 pm

DJ_3_Ball wrote:I actually have the Mavs in the 54+ range. I think they're going through a little spell right now. But, overall I think it'll be good for them. I think they're a tough group by & large, and I think they'll get on another 10-1 run here in the second half of the season and cruise into a top 5 seed, mostly likely right at 54-56 wins and the 4th seed. Something like that.

So Mavs have to be over 71% for the remainder of the season. They need to have same or better result than Celtics have had so far this season in the East or Jazz in the West.

DJ_3_Ball · Post #12 » by **DJ_3_Ball** » Thu Jan 16, 2020 3:36 am

J_T wrote:
DJ_3_Ball wrote:I actually have the Mavs in the 54+ range. I think they're going through a little spell right now. But, overall I think it'll be good for them. I think they're a tough group by & large, and I think they'll get on another 10-1 run here in the second half of the season and cruise into a top 5 seed, mostly likely right at 54-56 wins and the 4th seed. Something like that.

So Mavs have to be over 71% for the remainder of the season. They need to have same or better result than Celtics have had so far this season in the East or Jazz in the West.

Well they're through the hard part of their schedule. They have one of the easiest remaining schedules in the league. We also have the hope of KP playing better in the 2nd half than he did in the 1st half, the hope the team gels together better than it did at spots in the beginning of the season. Granted, they won a bench game early in the season at DEN. But, they also lost some games when they had 9 different starting lineups in 15 games or whatever it was. Finally settled in with THJ in the starting lineup etc.

We've seen improvement from Maxi, Delon, and others. To a lesser extent Justin Jackson. There's some guys on this team that never played before together, so I think there's some natural, organic improvement we can expect.

When you say like you did with just the #s, then yeah it seems unlikely, but there's still a real possibility. Not to mention, when the Mavs were rolling before the Luka injury, a .710 winning pct seemed like mere child's play. All they have to do is get on another run like that in the 2nd half of the season when the schedule is easy. Say rip off 13 of 17, and then they can basically play 1 or 2 games above .500 in the rest of their schedule & waa-laa you have .710%

dirkules_41 · Post #13 » by **dirkules_41** » Thu Jan 16, 2020 12:49 pm

If KP and Luka both stay healthy and the rest of the team keeps improving and building Chemistry I see us closer to 55 than 45 wins. If not I think 45ish is the right ballpark.

J_T · Post #14 » by **J_T** » Thu Jan 16, 2020 5:05 pm

J_T wrote:I just saw this chart from few days ago which I find very interesting.

It shows that Mavs actually have 9th easiest schedule for the remainder of the season.

Mavs actually now have 12th easiest schedule and the opponent's wins are at 49.9% I think teams like Jazz have made some difference, as there are still 3 games to be played against them and they are considered to be second toughest remaining opponent, just after Bucks. I am actually very interested to see how Mavs do against Jazz.

DJ_3_Ball · Post #15 » by **DJ_3_Ball** » Thu Jan 16, 2020 11:25 pm

J_T wrote:Mavs actually now have 12th easiest schedule and the opponent's wins are at 49.9% I think teams like Jazz have made some difference, as there are still 3 games to be played against them and they are considered to be second toughest remaining opponent, just after Bucks. I am actually very interested to see how Mavs do against Jazz.

Yeah me too. Jazz have been really impressive considering they thought they'd have Mike Conley leading the reigns & that would be the reason for their improvement. Definitely Bojan Bogdanovic was been a key addition.

We're fortunate we only play them 3 times this season & only 1 game in Utah. If I had to guess, we'll drop the game in Utah, win one of the games at home, and the 3rd game at home will be a coin flip.

Without extreme improvement, organic team chemistry, natural player development, and/or a trade deadline addition, I'd say we're about even with Utah. If somehow we finished 3rd/6th or 4th/5th with Utah, I think that'd be a really competitive first round series. Not sure I'd favor the Mavs depending on who had homecourt advantage, but it'd be some great playoff experience for Luka & the fellas. Almost poetic justice given the first Mavs playoff series and playoff series win of the Dirk era came against Utah.

DJ_3_Ball · Post #16 » by **DJ_3_Ball** » Fri Jan 17, 2020 4:29 am

J_T wrote:Mavs actually now have 12th easiest schedule and the opponent's wins are at 49.9%...

If the Mavs can win at home vs POR, and then we get the Clippers on the 1st night of a back-to-back for LAC (fingers crossed Kawhi might sit... altho it's unlikely because the next night is @ ATL & they probably think they can win that game w/o Kawhi... and rightfully so). Still probably no PG-13 for that game.

Say the Mavs get those 2 wins, and they're 9-5 in their last 14. That was a difficult stretch in the schedule that started with San Antonio after Xmas. @ LAL @ OKC vs DEN vs LAL vs PHI vs LAC and the only real softballs in there we're 2 games @ GSW. vs CHI and vs CHA are borderline gimmies, only that CHA game wound up a loss.

So, it would put the Mavs at .651 winning pct. Then leading up to the ASB (All Star break) we cross off 2 games with Utah, @ OKC, @ HOU, @ IND, and the rest of that pre ASB schedule is pretty favorable.

Then post ASB, we only have @ MIA vs IND vs DEN up until March 16th (pretty much a whole month of easy games with the exception of those 3 I mentioned) before we play @ LAC. Then we finish the season with maybe 5 teams you'd have in the playoffs. 5 games out 13.

No more games with the Lakers, no more games with Boston, no games left with Philly, no games left with Toronto, and both our games with ATL left, 3 games left with Minnesota, and get this we have 7 back-to-backs left, BUT our opponents on the second night of those back-to-backs vs PHX, vs ATL, @ CHA, @ ATL, @ CHI, vs DEN, @ SAC, and for before the @ CHA game the first night of that b2b is @ WAS, before the @ ATL game it's @ ORL, before @ CHI it's @ MIN. I mean the toughest back-to-back we have left is @ SAS/vs DEN or maybe @ LAC/@ SAC, but it's a very manageable back-to-back schedule from here on out. Plenty of opportunities to get up big & rest your guys in the 4th quarter.

To go from a .651 winning pct to a .710 winning pct (or higher) is very doable given the Mavs remaining schedule.

Not to mention, what if KP comes back better than before? What Luka finds his early season form again? What if this team adds a piece before the trade deadline? What if this team builds on its chemistry & just looks cohesive & focused? What if Delon Wright, Maxi Kleber, Justin Jackson, Jalen Brunson, or another guy takes a step forward in the 2nd half?

I really don't think .710 is an unbreakable barrier. In fact, I think anything under .685 has to be considered a failure given all of those factors & the remaining schedule.

BlueSan · Post #17 » by **BlueSan** » Fri Jan 17, 2020 7:38 am

I will be absolutely shocked if this team has over 50 wins record by the end of a season. Absolutely shocked

DJ_3_Ball · Post #18 » by **DJ_3_Ball** » Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:12 am

BlueSan wrote:I will be absolutely shocked if this team has over 50 wins record by the end of a season. Absolutely shocked

Why would you be shocked?

We're currently on pace for 52 wins.

Seriously, my prediction of 54-56 wins is not "extreme" or a radical concept, by any stretch of the imagination. It's simply doing a slight bit better than expectation.

DJ_3_Ball · Post #19 » by **DJ_3_Ball** » Fri Jan 17, 2020 10:23 am

J_T wrote:
DJ_3_Ball wrote:I actually have the Mavs in the 54+ range. I think they're going through a little spell right now. But, overall I think it'll be good for them. I think they're a tough group by & large, and I think they'll get on another 10-1 run here in the second half of the season and cruise into a top 5 seed, mostly likely right at 54-56 wins and the 4th seed. Something like that.

So Mavs have to be over 71% for the remainder of the season...

I just realized something. When you posted this, the Mavs hadn't won @ SAC, yet. At that time they needed to go 29 out of their next 42 to make 54 wins, a .690 winning pct (not .710... although for the high end, the 56 wins, they would need a .738 winning pct).

Since the Mavs win @ SAC, they now need to win 28 out of their remaining 41 games (.683 winning pct) for 54 wins on the season. And 54 wins equates to a .659 winning pct, which would currently put the Mavs firmly in the 5th spot in the West.

For what it's worth, 58 wins would have the Mavs on pace for the 2nd seed in the West.

Obviously, the Mavs could stumble and fall into the 7th seed even. But, the door to the 2nd seed and definitely to homecourt advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs is still wide open. And it's not going to take the Mavs posting a .710 winning pct the rest of the way to get it done either. .683 winning pct will do just fine

Archx · Post #20 » by **Archx** » Fri Jan 17, 2020 11:08 am

DJ_3_Ball wrote:
BlueSan wrote:I will be absolutely shocked if this team has over 50 wins record by the end of a season. Absolutely shocked

Why would you be shocked?

We're currently on pace for 52 wins.

Seriously, my prediction of 54-56 wins is not "extreme" or a radical concept, by any stretch of the imagination. It's simply doing a slight bit better than expectation.

Because this team is made out of one superstar, a broken star and a bunch of role players (although some are really good). But that also means a ton of inconsistencies which we've already experienced. So expecting them to win over 50 games is really generous. If KP can play for the rest of the season and no additional injuries happen, then yeah maybe they'll get there but i don't see it. Obviously would be awesome to end in the top4.

What will be Mavs' record?