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Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year.

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leolozon
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Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#1 » by leolozon » Sat May 15, 2021 11:37 am

I seem to see some denial about it and would like to know how everyone feels about it.

Every stats, advanced or not, agree with it, except that he has the same efficiency (.587 vs .585 TS%). Name it : RPM, VORP, WS, RAPTOR, PIE, PER, plus-minus (couldn't see PIPM,).. His basic stats have also taken a dip PPG, APG, RPG; even more when you consider that he's playing slightly more MPG. His per 100 possessions is also down. Not everything can be attributed to double teams.

About the efficency being the same, it's not even something positive, because his 2pts FG% is down and so are his FTA and FT%. So it's all about shooting better from 3 to be able to get the same efficiency. A great offensive game from him is much more dependent on shooting well from 3, something that is more volatile.

I hope he can find another gear in the playoffs. And I wish he finally takes conditioning seriously this summer and comes back in shape. His FG% near the rim depends on it.

He's still a top 10 player in the league, but after last year where he was 5th or 6th, I was expecting top 3 this year. That regression in FTA, FT% and 2pt% is certainly concerning.
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Re: Luka has been a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#2 » by boogiezen » Sat May 15, 2021 11:38 am

LOL.
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Re: Luka has been a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#3 » by KhalilS » Sat May 15, 2021 11:40 am

He is the most doubled player in the league, I don't think Lillard or Curry who are also on below average teams, get doubled as much as he gets.
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Re: Luka has been a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#4 » by leolozon » Sat May 15, 2021 12:01 pm

KhalilS wrote:He is the most doubled player in the league, I don't think Lillard or Curry who are also on below average teams, get doubled as much as he gets.


I think he's first with Trae; Lillard and Harden are right behind, but it doesn't explain the concerning thing about FT% and FG% around the rim. I think it's obvious watching the games that even one on one, he doesn't shoot as well closer to the rim.
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#5 » by KhalilS » Sat May 15, 2021 12:25 pm

Agreed on both accounts, but he did offset his game more to the perimeter because of that, and he's doing great damage from there.
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#6 » by Archx » Sat May 15, 2021 12:34 pm

You're underestimating the gravity of opposing defensive schemes and how many open looks others get because of that. If you watch games closely, you can observe that Doncic's PnR is deadly, hence why some coaches think he is the best PnR player in the league. Obviously i'm not sayin he's perfect, Luka still has a long way to go and has much to learn but that comes with experience.

Someone also made a nice calculation about some scoring numbers and how much top guys contribute to team scoring relative to Jokic. So i'll just quote it here.

I think you're underestimating Doncic's impact on this team by a lot. Even if his numbers look slightly worse than last year. But also consider that he played with a very bad roster for long stretches plus KP was missing a ton of games.


Replace Jokic with any of those Players and the Nuggets' Overall Value goes down.

I created a little Sheet in order to visualize that ...

Image

I took the Player's following Data and calculated it against their Total Team Points to estimate, how much they contribute(d) to their Teams overall Scoring.

Total Points
Total Assists (Which I divided in 2/3 2P-Assists and 1/3 3P-Assists) and valued 1 Point per 2P-Ast and 1,5 Point per 3P-Ast.
Total Offensive Rebounds and Total Steals (Which I valued with 0,6 Points on Avg estimating that Points are contributed only every 1/3 of the Time)

As you can see, the only two Players who are close to Jokic's Contribution Realms are Doncic and Curry.

Everyone else pales, as Jokic contributes to more than a Third of his Teams overall Points.
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#7 » by Oscar9992 » Sat May 15, 2021 12:43 pm

Yes, he has been worse player than last season. But Playoffs performance means much more. But I highly doubt he will play better this playoffs since he averaged 31-10-9 statline vs Clippers last playoffs.
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#8 » by XTraderXL » Sat May 15, 2021 3:16 pm

Anyone who watches the games can see that he hasnt been as good as he was last year. You dont even have to look at the numbers. He came in fat and out of shape and that had an effect on his play. But none of this will matter if he shows up in the playoffs. We will see in a week.
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#9 » by Bob8 » Sat May 15, 2021 3:19 pm

leolozon wrote:I seem to see some denial about it and would like to know how everyone feels about it.

Every stats, advanced or not, agree with it, except that he has the same efficiency (.587 vs .585 TS%). Name it : RPM, VORP, WS, RAPTOR, PIE, PER, plus-minus (couldn't see PIPM,).. His basic stats have also taken a dip PPG, APG, RPG; even more when you consider that he's playing slightly more MPG. His per 100 possessions is also down. Not everything can be attributed to double teams.

About the efficency being the same, it's not even something positive, because his 2pts FG% is down and so are his FTA and FT%. So it's all about shooting better from 3 to be able to get the same efficiency. A great offensive game from him is much more dependent on shooting well from 3, something that is more volatile.

I hope he can find another gear in the playoffs. And I wish he finally takes conditioning seriously this summer and comes back in shape. His FG% near the rim depends on it.

He's still a top 10 player in the league, but after last year where he was 5th or 6th, I was expecting top 3 this year. That regression in FTA, FT% and 2pt% is certainly concerning.


You're forgetting very important fact. This season is totally incomparable to last. Very short of season. Schedule far more condensed. Many more back2backs. KP missing 40% of the season. Covid problems. Opponents D with only goal to stop Luka. This season is unique. Luka missing only 6 games was huge too. I believe Luka and Mavs did great, better than last season.
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#10 » by wolfram » Sat May 15, 2021 3:24 pm

He IS the team. So why is this team better than last year? His overall impact is better than last year. Defense is also better. He did take a dip on drives and finishing around the rim. Needs to work on his body and free throws.
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#11 » by JD45 » Sat May 15, 2021 3:26 pm

I think the early season conditioning was a problem for Luka. He is driving the ball less so shooting more mid range and more 3s but less free throws.

But I also think opposing teams have learned how to better defend him. Longer wing defender trailing him. Small fast guard picking him up at half court. Occasional double teams at points of weakness.

Luka isn't perfect, so it was just a matter of time before teams got to know his weaknesses and how to put up more resistance. But I also don't think he has topped out. Better focus on conditioning in the offseason, continued 3pt improvement and working on his free throws could get him back on the uptrend. And a better ball handling guard next to him would also let him get to his spots better. Josh Richardson should have been that player, but it didn't work out.
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#12 » by Bob8 » Sat May 15, 2021 3:31 pm

wolfram wrote:He IS the team. So why is this team better than last year? His overall impact is better than last year. Defense is also better. He did take a dip on drives and finishing around the rim. Needs to work on his body and free throws.


Mavs being 5th with KP missing 40% of games, 3 weeks of Covid problems and Richardson being disastrous says it all about Luka and Mavs. Fantastic achievement. And yes, he has a lot more room for improvement. 3pts % will be crucial going forward.
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#13 » by agentofatlas » Sun May 16, 2021 2:00 am

It's weird because watching the games, I feel like he actually improved his game this year. It's more resilient with the emergence of his mid and post game. Helped the team finish a lot of close games because of it.

His FTs are driving me crazy though. It's the one thing that's holding him back not 3pt shooting.
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#14 » by Darren » Sun May 16, 2021 4:40 am

It's what Seth left off. With Curry, Luka has more rooms to operate in paint. Ironically, Curry is also significantly better defender than J-Rich against random PG. Even more, Hardaway is more streaky shooter without Curry around. That's a mess on both ends of the floor for Luka. In last 2 games, teams try to overwork Luka on both ends, and Luka's effectiveness in paint and perimeter are both significantly affected. I expect a lot of those stuffs more now on. Maybe even with double team included. I wonder how Luka respond when it comes to playoff. Somebody has to step up to take over the load of Luka. Without Maxi's presence in paint, teams are more keen on attacking the rim in particular against Luka. KP's not quite the same shot-blocker. Powell and Boban is limited. That's left the team with WCS. So far, with Powell and KP starting, teams are attacking the rim at good rate. And the speedy PG defense is a huge problem, none of Burke, Brunson or J-Rich is capable defender against 1. DFS is somewhat effective, but not great overall. This team needs to add Ntilikina that summer, I think. I believe the interest is mutual barring the price. I wonder if NYK matches the offer, though. I think the Mavs needs to get some experiment until it's too late. Maybe we see more tWCS and Green against Wolves. Potentially, Green is quick enough to stick with PG. With Reddick out for awhile, logically, the Mavs has to think about the active roster for playoff. I consider Boban and Burke a lock because of last playoff performance. Against either LAC or DEN, I think both suit a few needs really well. Theoretically, Burke-Boban pick-n-roll is deadly weapon RC never try. Boban is the only big on Mavs roster that could set solid screen. And Burke is the only speedy guard that could change the tempo. I still don't get why WCS can't get more PT compared to Powell But give Powell credit, the athleticism and court awareness are back. In particular, offensively, things look good with Powell around. However, the same could be true with WCS as well.
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#15 » by fuller4379 » Sun May 16, 2021 5:01 am

The Mavs has won 59.2% this season and 57.3% last season.

Luka’s eFG% is up from 53.1% to 55.0%.

The team has won more and Luka’s supporting cast is worse. JRich is worse than Seth. KP has gone backwards. I don’t think there is any logical argument that Luka’s current season was worse than last season.
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#16 » by leolozon » Sun May 16, 2021 4:20 pm

fuller4379 wrote:The Mavs has won 59.2% this season and 57.3% last season.

Luka’s eFG% is up from 53.1% to 55.0%.

The team has won more and Luka’s supporting cast is worse. JRich is worse than Seth. KP has gone backwards. I don’t think there is any logical argument that Luka’s current season was worse than last season.


Weirdly, the Mavs have been worst offensively and defensively than last year. Their net rating was 4.8 last year and 2.6 this year. In part because of luck and in part because they didn't play like the worst team in the league in close games, they managed to get more wins. I'm pretty sure Luka was better in the clutch than last year.

There is a logical arguments, at least offensively, as evidenced in the OP. When all stats point in the same direction, it's certainly a logical argument.

Overall, who knows, because I think he was better defensively this year.
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#17 » by Oscar9992 » Sun May 16, 2021 9:10 pm

Despite Luka's stats looking worse than last year Mavs' winning % is higher this year.

I think it shows team became less dependent on Luka this season.
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#18 » by arkuo » Mon May 17, 2021 3:21 am

The eye test says Luka had more success in highlight passes last year. Those long dimes for a corner 3 or an alley oop pass from a pick and roll. He had more of those last year. Is it a case of being scouted by NBA coaches?
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#19 » by B8RcDeMktfxC » Mon May 17, 2021 3:44 am

Darren wrote:It's what Seth left off. With Curry, Luka has more rooms to operate in paint. Ironically, Curry is also significantly better defender than J-Rich against random PG. Even more, Hardaway is more streaky shooter without Curry around. That's a mess on both ends of the floor for Luka. In last 2 games, teams try to overwork Luka on both ends, and Luka's effectiveness in paint and perimeter are both significantly affected. I expect a lot of those stuffs more now on. Maybe even with double team included. I wonder how Luka respond when it comes to playoff. Somebody has to step up to take over the load of Luka. Without Maxi's presence in paint, teams are more keen on attacking the rim in particular against Luka. KP's not quite the same shot-blocker. Powell and Boban is limited. That's left the team with WCS. So far, with Powell and KP starting, teams are attacking the rim at good rate. And the speedy PG defense is a huge problem, none of Burke, Brunson or J-Rich is capable defender against 1. DFS is somewhat effective, but not great overall. This team needs to add Ntilikina that summer, I think. I believe the interest is mutual barring the price. I wonder if NYK matches the offer, though. I think the Mavs needs to get some experiment until it's too late. Maybe we see more tWCS and Green against Wolves. Potentially, Green is quick enough to stick with PG. With Reddick out for awhile, logically, the Mavs has to think about the active roster for playoff. I consider Boban and Burke a lock because of last playoff performance. Against either LAC or DEN, I think both suit a few needs really well. Theoretically, Burke-Boban pick-n-roll is deadly weapon RC never try. Boban is the only big on Mavs roster that could set solid screen. And Burke is the only speedy guard that could change the tempo. I still don't get why WCS can't get more PT compared to Powell But give Powell credit, the athleticism and court awareness are back. In particular, offensively, things look good with Powell around. However, the same could be true with WCS as well.

wall_of_text;dr
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Re: Luka has been statistically a worse offensive player than last year. 

Post#20 » by BlueSan » Mon May 17, 2021 4:09 am

The guy has been out of shape the entire season...

And this is not even meant to be a whiney post or trolling.... He really has been. My biggest problem with him is his professional approach to the entire thing...

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