A series Preview below by Anthony Slater, a senior writer covering the Golden State Warriors for The Athletic.
Biggest Warriors question: How do they guard Dončić?
Spoiler:
The Warriors have generally operated under the defensive belief that it’s better to cut off the others rather than overload against a singular talent. That’s the tactic they took when plotting out the first two rounds. They allowed Nikola Jokić one-on-one post-ups while cutting off his passing lanes. Then they backed off Ja Morant, packed the paint, let him take jumpers and stayed home on shooters like Desmond Bane.
Jokić averaged 31.0 points during the five-game series. Morant averaged 38.3 in his three games. But the Warriors went 6-2 against them and seemed generally satisfied with their defensive process and results. That’s the expected strategy against Dončić to open the conference finals: make him a scorer, don’t double-team, limit the others.
But there’s a difference between making Dončić beat you as a scorer and allowing him to do whatever he wants. If the Warriors soft switch everything and stay home on shooters, he will spend the entire game dragging Curry or Poole into high screen action and playing bully ball to get where he wants. Keeping Poole on the floor is crucial in this series. The Warriors can’t let him get relentlessly hunted without mixing up coverages.
Every Dwight Powell minute is probably a favor to the Warriors. Powell is the Mavericks’ starting center. He is a high-energy dive man and lob threat. But because he doesn’t pick and pop and because the Warriors don’t fear Dončić as a lethal deep-range shooter, they’re comfortable playing drop coverage against Dončić when Powell is on the floor.
Wiggins will be the primary Dončić defender. Wiggins has had a terrific run in the playoffs. He is quietly becoming one of the better individual wing defenders around. In the four Dallas matchups this season, Wiggins spent the bulk of each game guarding Dončić. For a full compilation of his work against Dončić, click here.
Dončić had some success against Wiggins. He made 47 percent of his shots. But Wiggins made almost everything at least relatively difficult and caused a few turnovers. This is the type of defensive possession the Warriors crave in this series. Powell sets a screen, Kevon Looney is in drop coverage, Wiggins trails, gets back in the play and uses a long arm contest to force a miss.
Slight problem for the Warriors: Powell starts, but he doesn’t play a ton. In the seven games against Phoenix, he only received 94 total minutes. Maxi Kleber, his backup, played 191 minutes. That’s because Kleber is a stretch big whose jumper is scorching. He is 29-of-49 from 3 in these playoffs. It’s more difficult to run that drop coverage when you have to protect against the pick and pop instead of the lob.
Looney will probably start and match up with Powell, but this series profiles as small-ball heaven. That means Green against Kleber at the center spot or even some Dallas lineups that don’t include Powell or Kleber.
Jokić averaged 31.0 points during the five-game series. Morant averaged 38.3 in his three games. But the Warriors went 6-2 against them and seemed generally satisfied with their defensive process and results. That’s the expected strategy against Dončić to open the conference finals: make him a scorer, don’t double-team, limit the others.
But there’s a difference between making Dončić beat you as a scorer and allowing him to do whatever he wants. If the Warriors soft switch everything and stay home on shooters, he will spend the entire game dragging Curry or Poole into high screen action and playing bully ball to get where he wants. Keeping Poole on the floor is crucial in this series. The Warriors can’t let him get relentlessly hunted without mixing up coverages.
Every Dwight Powell minute is probably a favor to the Warriors. Powell is the Mavericks’ starting center. He is a high-energy dive man and lob threat. But because he doesn’t pick and pop and because the Warriors don’t fear Dončić as a lethal deep-range shooter, they’re comfortable playing drop coverage against Dončić when Powell is on the floor.
Wiggins will be the primary Dončić defender. Wiggins has had a terrific run in the playoffs. He is quietly becoming one of the better individual wing defenders around. In the four Dallas matchups this season, Wiggins spent the bulk of each game guarding Dončić. For a full compilation of his work against Dončić, click here.
Dončić had some success against Wiggins. He made 47 percent of his shots. But Wiggins made almost everything at least relatively difficult and caused a few turnovers. This is the type of defensive possession the Warriors crave in this series. Powell sets a screen, Kevon Looney is in drop coverage, Wiggins trails, gets back in the play and uses a long arm contest to force a miss.
Slight problem for the Warriors: Powell starts, but he doesn’t play a ton. In the seven games against Phoenix, he only received 94 total minutes. Maxi Kleber, his backup, played 191 minutes. That’s because Kleber is a stretch big whose jumper is scorching. He is 29-of-49 from 3 in these playoffs. It’s more difficult to run that drop coverage when you have to protect against the pick and pop instead of the lob.
Looney will probably start and match up with Powell, but this series profiles as small-ball heaven. That means Green against Kleber at the center spot or even some Dallas lineups that don’t include Powell or Kleber.
Biggest Mavericks question: How well will they stop the Warriors?
Spoiler:
The Suns were an offensive machine. They just scored 27 first-half points and watched their season end in blowout fashion on their home floor. Dončić was the offensive hero. But it was Dallas’ collective defensive effort that strangled Phoenix’s dream season.
The Mavericks finished with a 109.1 defensive rating this season, seventh stingiest in the NBA. Once the calendar turned to 2022, they were fourth-best. There were patches of the season where they were the best.
That’s the Jason Kidd impact. The season before, under Rick Carlisle, the Mavericks finished with the 21st ranked defense. Kidd arrived, and the defensive culture appears to have shifted. The trade of Kristaps Porziņģis helped. So did Kidd’s lineup choices and the internal player development. Finney-Smith is an excellent defensive wing. Bullock is above average.
The Mavericks aren’t without defensive warts. Brunson, a high-minutes guard, is small. Dāvis Bertāns will be targeted every minute he’s on the floor. Dinwiddie has decent size but has never been a plus defender. Dončić can be exploited if he is either fatigued or disengaged.
The Suns spent the entire fourth quarter of a Game 2 blowout win picking on Dončić. The Warriors will try to do the same, believing the more actions he must guard, the less energy he will have on the offensive end.
But Kidd challenged Dončić after that Game 2 loss where his turnstile defense became the off-day talking point, saying he needed to be an active participant. Dončić revved it up better in the five games after, and the Mavericks went 4-1 to stun the Suns. They had a defensive rating of 104.1 in those five games.
The Warriors can be explosive offensively, but they can also go cold. They’re currently trying to settle down an exploding turnover problem, having committed 41 the past two games against the Grizzlies and 16 or more in every game of that series.
Dallas isn’t Memphis, from a disruptive standpoint. Nobody is. The Grizzlies forced the most turnovers in the NBA this season, 16.3 per. The Mavericks forced the seventh-fewest, 13.1 per.
But the Warriors still had trouble scoring against Dallas in three of their four games this season. In one loss, they had a season-low 82 points, going 5-of-28 from 3 and turning the ball over 17 times. If the Mavericks win this series, they’ll do it on the defensive end.
The Mavericks finished with a 109.1 defensive rating this season, seventh stingiest in the NBA. Once the calendar turned to 2022, they were fourth-best. There were patches of the season where they were the best.
That’s the Jason Kidd impact. The season before, under Rick Carlisle, the Mavericks finished with the 21st ranked defense. Kidd arrived, and the defensive culture appears to have shifted. The trade of Kristaps Porziņģis helped. So did Kidd’s lineup choices and the internal player development. Finney-Smith is an excellent defensive wing. Bullock is above average.
The Mavericks aren’t without defensive warts. Brunson, a high-minutes guard, is small. Dāvis Bertāns will be targeted every minute he’s on the floor. Dinwiddie has decent size but has never been a plus defender. Dončić can be exploited if he is either fatigued or disengaged.
The Suns spent the entire fourth quarter of a Game 2 blowout win picking on Dončić. The Warriors will try to do the same, believing the more actions he must guard, the less energy he will have on the offensive end.
But Kidd challenged Dončić after that Game 2 loss where his turnstile defense became the off-day talking point, saying he needed to be an active participant. Dončić revved it up better in the five games after, and the Mavericks went 4-1 to stun the Suns. They had a defensive rating of 104.1 in those five games.
The Warriors can be explosive offensively, but they can also go cold. They’re currently trying to settle down an exploding turnover problem, having committed 41 the past two games against the Grizzlies and 16 or more in every game of that series.
Dallas isn’t Memphis, from a disruptive standpoint. Nobody is. The Grizzlies forced the most turnovers in the NBA this season, 16.3 per. The Mavericks forced the seventh-fewest, 13.1 per.
But the Warriors still had trouble scoring against Dallas in three of their four games this season. In one loss, they had a season-low 82 points, going 5-of-28 from 3 and turning the ball over 17 times. If the Mavericks win this series, they’ll do it on the defensive end.
Anything is possible with their defense and the way Brunson and Dinwiddie are playing. Should be interesting.
