What should the Cardinals do this winter?

[mizzoupacers]

Might as well start asking, since the 2007 season is now over for us.

I think next season is going to be a rough go. We have too many problems to fix, but too much money already committed to fading veterans to go on a big spending spree. And while the farm system showed some signs of life this season, probably most of the help will not be major-league ready by 2008. Basically, I'm looking forward to 2009 rather than 2008--by 2009 we'll probably have help from the minor leagues and a lot more money to spend.

But what should the Cardinals do for 2008?

I'll start with the biggest problem--the starting rotation. What we are already paying for:

#1 starter: Chris Carpenter. But he's going to miss half the season at least, and it's doubtful he'll be in top form if he comes back next season at all. In 2008 he is basically going to be an expensive investment in the team's future.

#2 starter: Adam Wainwright. A huge bargain--his salary was something like 400K this season and won't be all that much more in 2008. We're in good shape here.

#s 3-5: We are in terrible shape here. We are committed to paying Mulder I think $7 million, and Looper I think $5 million, and we are just going to have to hope they both come through for us. Looper was surprisingly good this season and I wouldn't mind seeing him again as our #4 or #5 starter. How Mulder will do next year is anyone's guess, but whatever he does will be done in St. Louis. If he regains his form enough to be a legit #3 starter, that would be VERY helpful.

Who else? Wells and Maroth are surely gone. Reyes is a total enigma. Thompson belongs in the bullpen, and probably Wellemeyer does too. Pineiro is probably the one other leading candidate to return to the rotation next year. The Cardinals hold an option on him for 2008, so they can bring him back if they want to.

Even so, with Carpenter out and no immediate help on the way from the farm system, we probably need to bring in at least one new starter, maybe two. But we don't have much to trade, and the free agent market looks to be pretty weak. What should the Cardinals do? Who should they get?

[mizzoupacers]

Oh, and here's where I stand on an everyday lineup for next year:

C: Molina. Hope we can hang onto him for a long time, he's the best defensive catcher we've ever had and he actually hit better than a pitcher this season.

1B: Bozied. OK, just kidding. Pujols.

2B: Next year is a good time to see if Brendan Ryan can be a good everyday player, either here or at shortstop.

SS: Three options, in my order of preference: (1) sign or trade for a significant upgrade (2) bring back Eckstein for no more than two more years, at roughly his current salary (3) put Ryan here and find another answer at second base.

3B: Cross your fingers that with this latest surgery Rolen finally gets himself right. Still an All-Star caliber player if healthy. And we're going to be paying him like an All-Star for the next few seasons whether he plays like one or not. It's a huge shame that we don't have better third-base prospects in the farm system.

LF: Duncan. When healthy, he didn't disappoint this season.

CF: Edmonds. Unlike with Rolen, I don't have much hope that he'll play any better next year than this. He's just keeping CF warm until Rasmus can take over (in 2009?).

RF: Ankiel. Please, Rick, don't turn out to be a two-time gigantic head case. And please learn not to strike out so much. If Slick Rick fails, we have some other interesting options in the minors, plus Ludwick might be a decent fill-in. And we are going to be paying Encarnacion for one more year--will he be back on the field next season?

So I'm pretty much saying, whatever money we have to spend, spend it on PITCHING...unless the Cardinals want to go buy a good shortstop too. Or third baseman...or second baseman...

[bigboy1234]

Under contract:
Pujols 16M
Rolen 12M
Edmonds 8M
Carpenter 10.5M
Encarnacion 6.5M
Mulder 6.5M
Looper 5.5M
Kennedy 3.5M
Spiezio 2.3M
Franklin 2.25M
Flores 1M

Total: 74.05M

Options:
Isringhausen 8M (1.25M buyout, club)
Pineiro (unknown mutual option)
Taguchi 1.1M (1k buyout, club)

Arbitration Eligible:
Aaron Miles
Yadier Molina
Rick Ankiel
Brad Thompson (I believe, could be wrong though)
Todd Wellemeyer

Free Agents:
David Eckstein
Kip Wells
Mike Maroth
Russ Springer
Russell Branyan
Preston Wilson
Gary Bennett
Miguel Cairo
Troy Percival
Kelly Stinnett

[bigboy1234]

^Brought to you by boredum.

I'm not really sure what we should do for pitching, but if the Cubs nontender Prior I would love to go after him. Also, if Schilling would accept a 2 year 25M deal I would offer him that, but I'm not sure if he would come to St. Louis. Also, a cheap 400k pitcher we could pick up I like is John Thomson.

As far as SS goes, I would just give it to Ryan as I think Eckstein will get over 5M a year this year in free agency. Although I'm far from sold on Ryan. In one more season either Jose Martinez or Tyler Greene should be able to take over at SS so I would be really against giving anything more than one year deal to Eckstein. I would love to bring A-Rod in but it isn't happening and I don't think I would even give him the money he's going to get.

[mizzoupacers]

Options:
Isringhausen 8M (1.25M buyout, club)
Pineiro (unknown mutual option)
Taguchi 1.1M (1k buyout, club)

If I were in charge, I'd pick up Isringhausen's option. It's a loyalty thing. But it's also to hang on to one of the few viable trading chips we have. If we're as noncompetitive next year as I expect we will be, I think Izzy would waive his no-trade clause to go to a contending team in August. Of course that assumes he maintains his trade value by having another good season.

I'm not sure what Pineiro would cost us if we pick up his option, but I suspect too much. Probably I'd just let him go. We could find someone just as good for a lot less $$$ I think.

Taguchi is a nice team mascot and doesn't cost very much. Doesn't matter to me if we bring him back, although I don't know why we couldn't just give his spot to Schumaker and save a few hundred thou.

Arbitration Eligible:
Aaron Miles
Yadier Molina
Rick Ankiel
Brad Thompson (I believe, could be wrong though)
Todd Wellemeyer

Molina and Ankiel are guys you have to spend the money on.

Thompson and Wellemeyer aren't world-beaters but probably won't cost much. Most likely they will be back.

I don't know why we need Miles back now that Brendan Ryan is in the picture and since we're still stuck with Adam Kennedy. Let Miles go, especially if we decide to spend real money for a real middle infielder via free agency or trade.

Free Agents:
David Eckstein
Kip Wells
Mike Maroth
Russ Springer
Russell Branyan
Preston Wilson
Gary Bennett
Miguel Cairo
Troy Percival
Kelly Stinnett

Keep Springer and Percival. Maybe keep Branyan, although we are still paying Spiezio and he's probably a better option to have on the bench. Maybe keep Eckstein, depending on what he costs and who else we have a chance to get. If Eckstein is going to cost $5 million a year, then I agree with bigboy--let him go. I'm not too excited about the Cardinals' minor-league shortstops, but there have to be better options via free agency or trade than Eckstein between now and the 2009 season.

[bigboy1234]

Yeah, I may be a little too high on Jose Martinez, but I've liked him for quite a while now. Here are some more thoughts on him from other guys:

Love him. We've been on him this year since ST as a guy who could have a breakout season and he's lived up to those expectations (thank God). He's got strong defensive tools in the middle of the diamond with some emerging power. Seems like a No. 2 or 3 hitter; has enough speed on the bases, but isn't a burner. Def: above-average arm strength, good range to both sides and soft hands. Profiles the position and should stay there. (As you can tell I'm a big fan).

Jose Martinez
2B/SS | St. Louis Cardinals | 21 years old
Martinez was largely overlooked last year despite striking out in fewer than 8% of his plate appearances at Class-A Quad Cities. Most players with that kind of contact rate are one-dimensional singles hitters, but Martinez drove 30 extra-base hits including eight home runs last year. The strong defensive infielder doesn't possess the raw power to become more than an average power threat in the upper minor leagues, and he will certainly have a hard time hitting many home runs at Palm Beach of the Florida State League this year. But his exceptional ability to make good contact could lead to some well-deserved attention in the near future.

Tyler Greene I'm not as high on, but he is a former 1st rounder so he does have talent. Also, one positive thing about Greene is he was leading the Texas League in LD% before he went down.

The thing with Eckstein though is he is a fan favorite so I think the Cardinals may overpay and keep him.

I pretty much agree with you on everything, except I'm not sure how much Percival and Springer will cost so I'm not 100% on them. I would personally just let So go but that would leave us with only one right handed OF bat in Ludwick if Encarnacion can't comeback. So, I guess my decision on So would be determined by Juan's status, unless Joe Mather is ready, which I don't think he is. Oh, and I think we'll keep Miles, although I would to prefer us to go after Damion Easley or just bring up Hoffpauir.

[mizzoupacers]

I'm probably too high on Hoffpauir but I've talked myself into thinking that he would be at least as good as Miles next year if we brought him up. I've got nothing against Miles other than I don't think he does anything that makes it worth paying him more than we would pay a rookie like Hoffpauir.

I don't know that much about Tyler Greene, but hasn't he mostly been a bust so far? I don't really care where we drafted him; that doesn't matter too much once the draft is over and done. He is still fairly young I think, so maybe what you saw last year was the start of a turnaround for him and he'll emerge as a big-leaguer. As for Martinez, I don't know...he sounds OK, but I want a real shortstop, not a guy billed as "SS/2B." I think sometimes people focus too much on offense, too. For example, I'm not too excited about Bryan Anderson even though a lot of others are--maybe he can hit better than average for a catcher, but it sounds to me like he is a pretty bad defensive catcher, so unless he has 30-HR power or something why would we play him over Molina, who is a fantastic defender, is still very young, and who showed marked improvement as a hitter this season? (Although I have no illusions that Yadi will ever turn into a great hitter.) Well sorry about that little side trip. Anyway, I'd be more excited about Martinez if I heard some rave reviews about his fielding, otherwise, big flippin' deal if he comes up and can hit .290 with no power.

[bigboy1234]

I don't really know what you were reading about Jose but he's suppose to be a very slick fielder.

Just for the hell of it, these are a couple of guys I would like to go after in a trade, Jeremy Bonderman, Andy Sonnanstine, and Mike Mussina. I like these guys mostly because I think they're great buy low guys who will have better seasons next year, and even perform better in the NL Central.

To me we only have one legit starter next year and that is Wainwright, since Mulder is still a question and I think Looper will regress a little. So I would actually like to go after all 3 of the aforementioned guys.

[wigglestrue]

Bonderman would do so much better in the NL.

For your 3-through-5, any minor leaguers who could surprise as back-end rotation guys next spring training or midseason? Garcia? Ottavino? Walters?

[bigboy1234]

For your 3-through-5, any minor leaguers who could surprise as back-end rotation guys next spring training or midseason? Garcia? Ottavino? Walters?

I doubt Garcia makes his big league debut until at least September at the earliest, he had already been shut down for elbow soreness since 7/18 and I'm not 100% sure what's going on with him right now. Then again if he's healthy I wouldn't be suprised if he made the team out of ST although I would think that would be a mistake. I'm thinking Ottavino will stay in AA all year(may get called up to AAA), and Walters may start back in AA (like I think he should) and eventually get promoted to AAA, doubt he makes it to the bigs too. And Herron and Mortensen are still too far away. Jess Todd may move fast, but not that fast. I was hoping the Cards would push Degerman and get him to AA this year, but it looks like he'll start there next year, hopefully he succeeds at his older age. So all in all I don't really expect anything out of the Cards starting pitching prospects next year in the bigs.

[mizzoupacers]

I don't really know what you were reading about Jose but he's suppose to be a very slick fielder.

I suspect that if he were a slick shortstop, no one would be talking about him playing second base. Why even talk about playing anywhere else if you can play a mean shortstop? I doubt anyone ever described Ozzie Smith as "SS/2B."

[mizzoupacers]

I doubt Garcia makes his big league debut until at least September at the earliest, he had already been shut down for elbow soreness since 7/18 and I'm not 100% sure what's going on with him right now. Then again if he's healthy I wouldn't be suprised if he made the team out of ST although I would think that would be a mistake. I'm thinking Ottavino will stay in AA all year(may get called up to AAA), and Walters may start back in AA (like I think he should) and eventually get promoted to AAA, doubt he makes it to the bigs too. And Herron and Mortensen are still too far away. Jess Todd may move fast, but not that fast. I was hoping the Cards would push Degerman and get him to AA this year, but it looks like he'll start there next year, hopefully he succeeds at his older age. So all in all I don't really expect anything out of the Cards starting pitching prospects next year in the bigs.

My take too, and it points out the biggest failure of the Cardinals' farm system. The Prime Directive of a farm system is to provide good, healthy young arms, since good healthy arms are always the first thing you run out of. To not even have one halfway decent guy ready to go for next season is pitiful.

[bigboy1234]

-= original quote snipped =-

I suspect that if he were a slick shortstop, no one would be talking about him playing second base. Why even talk about playing anywhere else if you can play a mean shortstop? I doubt anyone ever described Ozzie Smith as "SS/2B."

Chris Constancio the guy who put him down as a SS/2B is a pure stat guy. When someone like Chris Kline who talks to scouts says "he's got strong defensive tools in the middle of the diamond" I take it to mean he's a pretty good fielder.

[pacerfan]

Maybe the best thread of the season. Thanks guys. What's the situation on GM and manager? Anyone moving on?

[bigboy1234]

Maybe the best thread of the season. Thanks guys. What's the situation on GM and manager? Anyone moving on?

Theres been talk of both, LaRussa's contract is up, but Jocketty had his 2008 club option picked up last year so he would have to be fired or step down which I just don't see for some reason.

[mizzoupacers]

Unless LaRussa is feeling completely burned out--and who could blame him if he is--I think he will be back next year. Seems pretty clear to me that the Cardinals organization wants him back.

I think Jocketty will be back too unless some other team snatches him away from us. I have no idea what the odds are of that happening.

[mizzoupacers]

So who, if anyone, can you see the Cardinals trading this winter?

I don't think we have much to offer. We don't have much surplus anywhere, or many guys that other teams are going to covet.

Between the majors and the minors we have some depth in the outfield. I'd be willing to trade anyone other than Rasmus and probably Ankiel. I would trade Duncan for a solid starting pitcher if possible, but I'm not sure the Cardinals would consider trading away Coach Dave's boy. No one is going to want Edmonds or Encarnacion.

We have no infielders, majors or minors, that either someone else would want or that we could spare.

We could trade some pitchers. Reyes is the obvious one--maybe someone else is willing to take a chance on him. If we want to concede 2008 (like maybe we should) then maybe we consider trading Looper or Isringhausen. But that would be very un-Cardinal-like.

Here's what I think is about the best we have to offer: Reyes, Bryan Anderson (we don't need him, we have Molina), maybe some spare outfielders (Ludwick? Mather? Haerther?), maybe one of the first basemen who did well in the low minors this season (we don't need them, we have Pujols). Perhaps Duncan in the right deal.

It ain't much. What would other teams give us for any of that? All I'm asking for is a starting pitcher who is a good bet to throw a lot of innings at roughly league-average stat levels. (Better than league-average if it is Duncan we are talking about trading.) Think we can get one of those?

[bigboy1234]

Some deals I would like to do:

Chris Duncan and Bryan Anderson for Jeremy Bonderman and average prospect.

Mike Mussina for nothing just taking on his salary. Hopefully the Yanks just want to get rid of him, not entirely sure though.

Andy Sonnanstine for Ryan Franklin and Anthony Reyes.

[mizzoupacers]

Yeah, I should have included Franklin in my trade chips. He's had a pretty good year, and I think we'd be "selling high" if we moved him this winter. You really think Sonnanstine is worth him AND Reyes? I don't know that much about Sonnanstine, but his numbers look Reyes-like and he's a soft-tosser (I think).

The Post-Dispatch had a piece this week suggesting that the Cards look at getting A.J. Burnett. I'm not thrilled, and I doubt we could put together a good enough trade offer to interest the Blue Jays anyway, but we ARE desperate. What do you think about Burnett?

Also, you think Bartolo Colon has anything left? He'll be a 34-year-old free agent coming off two terrible, injury-plagued seasons. Before that, though, he was pretty damn good. What kind of money do you think he's going to get next season?

[bigboy1234]

I may have put too much given too much for Sonnanstine in that deal, not really sure though. We may be able to just get him for Reyes actually. But then again I don't really value Franklin that much, so it's not like he's a deal breaker. I do like Sonnanstine as he put up very nice periphals in the AL East and has a very nice minor league numbers. He would arguably be our ace next year, in my opinion.

I like AJ Burentt, but I don't really get why we would trade for him, he's not really a buy low candidate at all. His BABIP this season is .245 which means he has been EXTREMELY lucky. I still think he'd be our best pitcher next year though. I'm just not sold on what we would have to give up for him. Still wishing he would have signed with us originally despite his injuries, and I'm pretty sure he'll opt out after next year. But if Toronto is willing to trade him for what he's not worth I would be for it, but right now a 3.40 ERA pitcher in the AL will probably net you a good amount.

I'm not sure what to think of Colon, because I'm not really sure how much a team is going to give him in free agency just because he has a big name. I'd take a risk on him, but on an incetive ladin deal, which I doubt he'd sign, either way he'd be our 2nd best pitcher next year. Definitely think theres better options out there, considering the money I think he'll get because of his name.