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1. Carpenter is healthy again and resumes his role as ace of the pitching staff.

2. Rolen is healthy again, goes back to All-Star level production, and the feud with La Russa recedes into the background.

3. Rasmus is the real thing.

4. Ankiel proves to be an above-average right fielder.

5. Barton proves to be an adequate left fielder/leadoff hitter.

6. The Cardinals have a LOT of money to spend...around $30 million in dropped salaries. We cut loose Izturis, Spiezio, Miles, Encarnacion, Mulder, Looper, and Springer. (Those salaries add up to $28.6 million according to today's blog at vivaelbirdos.com) http://www.vivaelbirdos.com/ We also cut loose Clement if he can't perform. And keep in mind we've already cut loose Edmonds.

7. We trade Duncan for a starting middle infielder, or a league-average starting pitcher.

The Cardinals lineup looks something like this:

Barton, lf
Rasmus, cf
Pujols, 1b
Rolen, 3b
Ankiel, rf
Mystery Man, 2b
Mystery Man, ss
Molina, c

Rotation:
1. Carpenter
2. Expensive high-impact free agent
3. Wainwright
4. Pineiro/Clement
5. Jaimie Garcia? or another free agent or somebody

Basically, we've got $30 million or so plus Chris Duncan to go shopping for a middle infield and a top-of-the-rotation type starting pitcher. (We might need a second starting pitcher as well if some combination of Pineiro/Clement/Garcia is not good enough to nail down the last two spots in the rotation...or two starting pitchers if all three of them fail.)

A lot of things would have to go right, but I don't think it's out of the question that the Cardinals could be a contending team again as soon as 2009.

We cut loose Izturis, Spiezio, Miles, Encarnacion, Mulder, Looper, and Springer.

I assume you think LaRussa is gone to then.

4. Ankiel proves to be an above-average right fielder.

The main problem with Ankiel will be his awful OBP, but we all know he has a great arm and power.

5. Barton proves to be an adequate left fielder/leadoff hitter.

I'm not so sure Barton has the bat to be a LF, although he would be quite nice defensively in left.

Mystery Man, 2b

Will likely still be Kennedy unless he does something like post a sub .600 OPS this season which I don't think will happen.

Two players you don't mention that should be ready are Bryan Anderson and Mitchell Boggs.

Next seasons free agent pitchers look like Santana, Sabathia, Sheets, Burnett, and Lowe as the top 5 in order. I could see the Cards being interested in the last 2, Lowe a great GB pitcher and Burnett well I think we've heard the name before. I think Santana and Sabathia will be outpriced for us. Then theres old timers like Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Curt Schilling, Pedro Martinez, and Mike Mussina. I personally wouldn't mind some Pedro.

You're ahead of me in figuring out who the free-agent pitchers will be next winter. I would hope the Cardinals would make a competitive bid for Sabathia or Santana unless the price gets totally ridiculous. New stadium...lots of money to spend...growing unrest of fans unhappy with a couple years of sucky teams...I'm going to expect something big from our front office. And I'll be mighty pissed if they don't deliver, especially since I'll have given them the benefit of the doubt for several years by then.

I like Barton's minor-league OBP numbers...if he is hitting in front of Rasmus, Pujols, and Rolen, maybe all he has to do is be able to get on base, he doesn't have to hit for power. But who knows if he will be any good at all post-injury, and in the majors.

Throw Boggs into the mix for a back-of-the-rotation spot. I'm content with Molina at catcher--unless Anderson proves he isn't terrible defensively behind the plate, I consider him trade bait.

The real keys are what the Cardinals get out of Carpenter, Rasmus, and Rolen. If all three of those guys are good in 2009, the team will be pretty good, probably good enough even to carry a Kennedy at second base. But if they're unproductive for whatever reason or playing for other teams, chances are the Cardinals won't be very good.

What about Mulder? I am in Indianapolis and try to keep up with all the news, but sometimes I miss things.

Also, Carpenter isn't supposed to be back into towards the middle of the year, right?

I'm pessimistic about Mulder, I think he's done. Hope he proves me wrong though. Supposedly he will be ready to pitch again by May 2008.

Carpenter, they're saying he might be back sometime in the second half of 2008. I'm not counting on him to do much in '08 after such a long layoff. I'm just hoping for a good 2009 from him, I don't think it's too likely we're going to compete in '08 anyway, even in the NL Central. Let the Cubs win their 85 games and a pseudo-playoff spot again, they get all happy about a season like that. Then we'll show them what a real postseason team looks like in '09 and beyond.

2009 Payroll:
Pujols 16M
Carpenter 14M
Glaus 11.25M
Pineiro 7.5M
Kennedy 4M
Molina 3.25M
Franklin 2.5M

Total: 58.5M

Club Options:
Mulder 11M (1.5M buyout)
Clement 8.75M (0.25M buyout)
Spiezio 2.5M (0.1M buyout)

Free Agents:
Isringhausen
Encarnacion
Looper
Springer
Izturis
LaRue

Arbitration:
Miles
Wellemeyer
Flores
Ankiel
Wainwright
Duncan
Thompson
Johnson
Reyes
Ludwick

So the Cardinals already have at least 60M in guarantees for the 2009 season. Then more than likely at least 10M in arbitration players and players not yet in arbitration. (I'm not 100% sure of the guys that get arbitration next year, but what I have I think is right.) So that likely leaves 30M to spend, maybe only 10M if the Mulder and Clement options get picked up. Safe to say I don't see another big off-season for some reason. Maybe just a Derek Lowe signing and a Furcal signing if the two pitchers options aren't picked up. (You heard it first, two Dodgers to StL next off-season.) Then again, me=pessimistic and this is pretty damn far away.

I figure if the Clement and Mulder options get picked up, that's probably good news--it means they've gotten healthy and returned to being good pieces of a pitching rotation.

So that's a win-win situation unless the front office does something stupid--either we have a couple of solid starters for about the going market rate, or they're gone.

The one I'm more worried about is Carpenter...that's a lot of money to be paying someone who is hurt/ineffective. He has to come back strong, or our chances in 2009 take a big hit.