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General Blue Jays Thread, 2020

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1961 » by Schad » Tue Nov 22, 2022 7:56 pm

Cyrus wrote:
IS chapman on the team still, we have 3rd base version of Cody already. We don't need another guy who hits 20-30 hr, and does little less offensively. Yeah we got a rid of guy that basically profiles the same as Cody, so we don't need to replace him, with similar guy who hits even worse on avg.


Chapman has an extremely good walk rate, and as a consequence of that and a sharp decline in his K rate, he got on base at a rate significantly above league-average (.327 versus .312). I have questions about whether he'll maintain his new, much lower K rate, but I'd very much take another guy who provides a wRC+ of 117 while adding excellent defense. I don't think Bellinger's bat is coming back to that extent, however.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1962 » by bluerap23 » Tue Nov 22, 2022 8:50 pm

Cyrus wrote:Why are we interested in Cody Bellinger


Because they can afford him
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1963 » by Schad » Tue Nov 22, 2022 9:40 pm

He's a Boras client who plays good CF defense and, while his bat has fallen off a cliff in recent years, does have an MVP award in the not-too-distant past.

He's also looking for a one-year deal in the hopes of getting paid in a big way thereafter...very much doubt that one year is going to be cheap, heh. Probably talking in the range of his non-tender, so $18-20m.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1964 » by Asianiac_24 » Tue Nov 22, 2022 11:24 pm

I highly doubt Cody Bellinger can get 18-20m anywhere.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1965 » by Schad » Wed Nov 23, 2022 12:16 am

Asianiac_24 wrote:I highly doubt Cody Bellinger can get 18-20m anywhere.


Bellinger produced 1.7 fWAR last year, which is worth about $13.5m. You then have to factor in his success from 2017-2020, the fact that teams are generally more willing to overpay AAV on one-year deals, and that his agent is Scott Boras.

Noah Syndergaard was an FA last year with a similar risk/reward: long track record of success, but where Bellinger had an atrocious 2020/middling 2021, Syndergaard effectively didn't pitch at all owing to injury. He get a 1 year, $20m contract.

Marcus Semien was an FA after 2020. Similar story: had a really bad season (much worse than Bellinger's 2021 by fWAR), opted to sign a one-year deal and attempt to parlay that into a long-term deal. He got a 1 year, $18m contract.


So yeah, I'd expect that Bellinger will be in that same area, unless something crops up that really scares teams off.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1966 » by Adrian_05 » Wed Nov 23, 2022 1:41 am

Bellinger might get 18 mill a year if thats including incentives. Doubt he gets that much guaranteed on a 1 year deal.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1967 » by polo007 » Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:44 am

Shi Davidi on MLB’s GM Meetings, Free Agency & the Toronto Blue Jays - The Bob McCown Podcast

Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi joins us after attending this years MLB GM Meetings. Shi talks to us about what he observed in Las Vegas, breaks down the recent Jays trade and gives us an idea on what we should expect regarding the Toronto Blue Jays and who they have their sights set on in the free agent market this off season.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1968 » by Lateral Quicks » Thu Nov 24, 2022 1:35 am

Cody Bellinger doesn't do it for me.

Alek Thomas is a name I've seen mentioned that could make sense. I think we need to get younger in the outfield, and a LHH would be a plus. No idea what it would cost, but that's the kind of player I'd be looking for.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1969 » by LBJKB24MJ23 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 4:12 am

Lateral Quicks wrote:Cody Bellinger doesn't do it for me.

Alek Thomas is a name I've seen mentioned that could make sense. I think we need to get younger in the outfield, and a LHH would be a plus. No idea what it would cost, but that's the kind of player I'd be looking for.


Bellinger is young(er) otherwise we're looking at a blockbuster trade (Moreno or Kirk for starters etc). Most good FAs aren't "young" when they get to a stage where they are free agents and really good.

i understand the sentiments though but thats just the reality of it.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1970 » by Lateral Quicks » Thu Nov 24, 2022 4:25 am

LBJKB24MJ23 wrote:
Lateral Quicks wrote:Cody Bellinger doesn't do it for me.

Alek Thomas is a name I've seen mentioned that could make sense. I think we need to get younger in the outfield, and a LHH would be a plus. No idea what it would cost, but that's the kind of player I'd be looking for.


Bellinger is young(er) otherwise we're looking at a blockbuster trade (Moreno or Kirk for starters etc). Most good FAs aren't "young" when they get to a stage where they are free agents and really good.

i understand the sentiments though but thats just the reality of it.


Oh I'm under no illusions that a young controllable outfielder will come cheap. But our system is extremely weak in outfielders - there doesn't look to be a prospect knocking at the door anytime soon. With Hernandez gone and Springer getting older and more injury prone, we could use a guy that could fill a spot for 5-7 years out there. I don't think fetching 2-3 outfielders in free agency every year is necessarily a great use of team resources.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1971 » by polo007 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 4:52 am

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1972 » by Lateral Quicks » Thu Nov 24, 2022 4:56 am

polo007 wrote:
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Jansen was the best hitter on the team last year, and over his last ~450 PAs he has an OPS over .800.

The return had better be decent if that's the catcher they move.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1973 » by polo007 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 6:45 pm

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1974 » by polo007 » Thu Nov 24, 2022 6:46 pm

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1975 » by Parataxis » Thu Nov 24, 2022 7:03 pm

Frelich could be interesting. I wonder what it would take? Would the Brewers accept Jansen ++, or would we be talking Moreno?

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1976 » by Lateral Quicks » Thu Nov 24, 2022 11:48 pm

Frelick looks like my kind of player. High OBP, good plate control, little swing and miss, good defender. He has the makings of a leadoff hitter down the road.

Sign me up!
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1977 » by polo007 » Fri Nov 25, 2022 6:57 pm

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1978 » by polo007 » Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:25 pm

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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1979 » by Parataxis » Sat Nov 26, 2022 4:50 pm

Maybe I'm completely out of touch, but a 1/20 for Bellinger feels absurd. That's not 'prove it' money, that's established star money.

If he doesn't produce, that leaves a big hole, and if he does, he can walk after the one season.
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Re: General Blue Jays Thread, 2020 

Post#1980 » by polo007 » Sun Nov 27, 2022 12:07 am

Blue Jays’ 5 biggest needs for 2023 - MLB.com

1. A mid-rotation starter

Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman offer a fine starting point, and José Berríos should bounce back to some extent. To be a great team, though, the Blue Jays need to add at least one legitimate starter. Don’t rule out a big, bold swing like a short-term deal with Justin Verlander -- which they explored a year ago -- but the trade market could be appealing here, especially given Toronto’s wealth of catching depth.

The simple version is: The Blue Jays need at least one starter who they know will be solid, not a depth starter they’ll need to hope on.

2. An outfielder, ideally a lefty bat

Nimmo fits this lineup beautifully, but how would another large contract impact the club’s ability to extend Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Bo Bichette? Then, there’s Bellinger, the 2019 NL MVP who came crashing back down to earth. Do the Blue Jays believe in his upside, or is that another level of “hope” they can’t afford to whiff on? Michael Brantley is another who makes sense, and one who both general manager Ross Atkins and president and CEO Mark Shapiro know well from their Cleveland days. Entering his age-36 season, he’s a lefty bat and safe bet for a .360 on-base percentage, both of which fill a need.

3. Depth starter(s)

In a perfect world, the Blue Jays would make one notable addition to their rotation … then build out their depth with some names that aren’t as flashy.
Entering the season with Yusei Kikuchi as the No. 5 is not a safe play, so how can Toronto address that spot? Furthermore, what about Nos. 6 and 7? Stripling saved this club from digging deeper into a thin pool of starting depth last season, and the Blue Jays can’t afford to leave themselves exposed to that again. This could be another spot where the trade market comes into play.

4. Bullpen extras?


Adding Erik Swanson in the Teoscar Hernández trade gives the Blue Jays a legitimate reliever with elite potential alongside Jordan Romano. Count in Yimi García and the other returning arms, and that’s a nice, deep group. As the playoffs showed, teams don’t get by with just two great relievers, though. The bullpen market is incredibly expensive these days, but expect to see the Blue Jays add again, ideally targeting some upside and swing-and-miss stuff, which this group has long needed more of.

5. Veteran organizational depth

Is this the most exciting one? No.
But think back to past years, when the Blue Jays would find a Freddy Galvis, Eric Sogard or Joe Panik type to shore up the fringes of their roster. The versatility of Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio limits the true “need” for this, but there will surely be a veteran or two brought into camp as security. A good front office thinks about the worst-case scenario, then 10 scenarios beyond that, which is where these waves of Minor League signings come in.

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