Washington Nationals [1-2] vs. Blue Jays [2-2] (March 31 - April 2)

[Randle McMurphy]

Anything less than an MVPesque season, and he's going to regret not taking that deal.

It’s 7 games into the season. Even if Vladdy hits around an .800 OPS (comparable to his worst season), he’ll get $400M+

If he does slightly better (.850+ OPS) - he’ll get hood $500M. That’s just where the market is now for a top tier, young slugger

Is it? There have been two players to get north of $500M in the past two years, and both were more than just sluggers (and both have shown a lot of consistency)

And both were two of the best players in the history of baseball (or will be if they continue on the same pace). Vlad shouldn't be getting compared to them.

[Parataxis]

It’s 7 games into the season. Even if Vladdy hits around an .800 OPS (comparable to his worst season), he’ll get $400M+

If he does slightly better (.850+ OPS) - he’ll get hood $500M. That’s just where the market is now for a top tier, young slugger

Is it? There have been two players to get north of $500M in the past two years, and both were more than just sluggers (and both have shown a lot of consistency)

And both were two of the best players in the history of baseball (or will be if they continue on the same pace). Vlad shouldn't be getting compared to them.

Yep. I'd buy that Ohtani and Soto 'set the market' for young players who, if they continue their output, are HoF locks. I don't think they set anything for the next few tiers down.

[Raptors Realtor]

San Diego and Boston handled their young star players contracts correctly yesterday, signing Merrill to a 9/$135M and Campbell to a 8/$60M contract, respectively... That's how you do it, you lock in the guys early, you don't wait till their on the eve of free agency to start negotiating extensions.

Jays literally just did this with Kirk (who did not come from the same financial background that Bichette/Vlad did notably).

It stands to reason they tried with Vlad and Bo, who both decided they didn't want any part of a long-term contract at that time. That now could burn them if they have bad years.

Kirk is not on Guerrero, Bichette, Merrill or Campbell's level in terms of being touted as a top prospect, not to mention, his ceiling is lower than all 4 of those guys mentioned. Sure, Vladdy and Bo came from money, but Tatis Jr came from money also, and he still signed early to secure a decent contract. The fact of the matter is, if Atkins would have been proactive, he likely could have signed both Bichette and Vladdy before the Ohtani and Soto contracts skyrocketed some players expectations. Bo is on record saying that Atkins hadn't even approached his agent about an extension.

Obviously locking guys up early can backfire, it's risk vs reward, however the reward in my opinion far outweighs the risk if you believe in your scouting and player development departments. It can really pay off handsomely if the players live up to their hype.

[Randle McMurphy]

San Diego and Boston handled their young star players contracts correctly yesterday, signing Merrill to a 9/$135M and Campbell to a 8/$60M contract, respectively... That's how you do it, you lock in the guys early, you don't wait till their on the eve of free agency to start negotiating extensions.

Jays literally just did this with Kirk (who did not come from the same financial background that Bichette/Vlad did notably).

It stands to reason they tried with Vlad and Bo, who both decided they didn't want any part of a long-term contract at that time. That now could burn them if they have bad years.

Kirk is not on Guerrero, Bichette, Merrill or Campbell's level in terms of being touted as a top prospect, not to mention, his ceiling is lower than all 4 of those guys mentioned. Sure, Vladdy and Bo came from money, but Tatis Jr came from money also, and he still signed early to secure a decent contract. The fact of the matter is, if Atkins would have been proactive, he likely could have signed both Bichette and Vladdy before the Ohtani and Soto contracts skyrocketed some players expectations. Bo is on record saying that Atkins hadn't even approached his agent about an extension.

Obviously locking guys up early can backfire, it's risk vs reward, however the reward in my opinion far outweighs the risk if you believe in your scouting and player development departments. It can really pay off handsomely if the players live up to their hype.

Kirk was one of the Jays' top prospects by the time he arrived and has been 7th at his position in WAR since 2022. It's really not all that dissimilar.

The Jays also haven't had contract talks with Bichette of late but they did when they signed him to the 3/33M deal in 2023 to get through his arbitration years. He's wanted to go to free agency all along and that obviously wouldn't change when he's coming off 1.5 seasons where he didn't hit at all.

Vlad's contract talks have long been documented dating back to 2021. He's been an incredibly difficult player to get a proper valuation on because he's been an elite hitter in two out of the six seasons of his career and quite mediocre in the other four. It has led to significant disagreement between the player and management for years now about what he's truly worth (to the point where I think he/his agent have now deluded themselves into believing that MLB teams are going to pay a 1B 600M based on Soto/Ohtani comps that make no sense). I despise this FO for various reasons, but not handing Vlad hundreds of millions of dollars based on his track record since 2019 isn't one of them.