Varsho/Moreno/Kirk Discussion Thread

[s e n s i]

IMO the Jays lost the trade due to the opportunity cost.

Gabriel Moreno was a highly touted prospect, and in theory we should be getting a close to elite player back. Perhaps someone like Devers from Boston.

no GM in any timeline was or is giving up an elite player for a flare & blooper merchant with infield dirt power at best. people seem to forget that moreno was a top prospect before his wet noodle bat got exposed against real pitching. really for the last 3 years or so outfielders started to take a couple steps in each time he's stepped up to the plate. seems like the jays FO had clocked this in 2022 -- same way they cut bait on austin martin for similar reasons -- and a bunch of other teams probably saw this too. getting varsho in return was highway robbery looking back.

[brwnman]

The Jays have won 63% of the games Varsho has played this year.

The Jays have won 57% of the games Varsho hasn't played this year.

Take away Varsho's partial games, and we're down to 54% winning percentage with him in the lineup. Beauty of SSS.

LOL no, that's not correct. Try again.

of course it makes sense. I’m counting the games he played in, but not giving him credit for the wins in partially played games.

It’s the theme of this thread. Pick and choose.

[brwnman]

IMO the Jays lost the trade due to the opportunity cost.

Gabriel Moreno was a highly touted prospect, and in theory we should be getting a close to elite player back. Perhaps someone like Devers from Boston.

no GM in any timeline was or is giving up an elite player for a flare & blooper merchant with infield dirt power at best. people seem to forget that moreno was a top prospect before his wet noodle bat got exposed against real pitching. really for the last 3 years or so outfielders started to take a couple steps in each time he's stepped up to the plate. seems like the jays FO had clocked this in 2022 -- same way they cut bait on austin martin for similar reasons -- and a bunch of other teams probably saw this too. getting varsho in return was highway robbery looking back.

no GM in any timeline should give up an elite player for a swing and miss, can't hit the ball merchant with a wet noodle arm. Seems like Zona nade out like bandits and reaping the rewards ever since. Highway robbery!

[Rapcity_11]

Take away Varsho's partial games, and we're down to 54% winning percentage with him in the lineup. Beauty of SSS.

LOL no, that's not correct. Try again.

of course it makes sense. I’m counting the games he played in, but not giving him credit for the wins in partially played games.

It’s the theme of this thread. Pick and choose.

No, the math is wrong.

The Jays are 15-9 when he plays. 3 of those games are partial (all wins). Take those away and they have 12-9, aka a 57% winning percentage. And that even includes a "partial" game in which he was pulled in the 9th up 14-0.

You can't even troll correctly.

[T-d0t]

I might actually get the final word in because I agree, let's lock this up.

The Jays are the easy winners of this trade, guys. Strictly under the context of Varsho > Gurriel + Moreno. It is important context that the organization had Kirk in their back pocket.

However... We traded a #1 prospect in this deal. In a grander context, if this team ever trades a #1 prospect ever again we should be getting a MVP caliber player in return. The trade ended up working out just fine when considering what Moreno is, now. With that hindsight not a part of the equation, this deal was not a stroke of genius by our FO as it is being suggested. It was fine... We did fine.

Also, trading Gurriel and Teo within weeks of one another was not very clever.

This is the correct answer. We won the trade but could have gotten a way better player than Varsho even though he is pretty good.

[brwnman]

LOL no, that's not correct. Try again.

of course it makes sense. I’m counting the games he played in, but not giving him credit for the wins in partially played games.

It’s the theme of this thread. Pick and choose.

No, the math is wrong.

The Jays are 15-9 when he plays. 3 of those games are partial (all wins). Take those away and they have 12-9, aka a 57% winning percentage. And that even includes a "partial" game in which he was pulled in the 9th up 14-0.

You can't even troll correctly.

Nope, I trolled correctly.

He played in 24 games. I only counted 2 as partial games. Didn't give him credit for the wins in the partial games he played (but counted the games). 13 wins in 24 games. 54%.

But I can use your partial games number! 3 partial games. Helps my argument even more. 50%. 12 wins in 24 games.

[Mehar]

Primary reason Jays are in 1st place is because of offense and particularly the turnaround in hitting with RISP.

You're not getting anything elite in return for Varsho. But the Jays should absolutely look to move him for SP at the trade deadline.

No team is going to give up a valuable SP for a guy like Varsho who will be coming off injury after nearly two months, and who will be a free agent after next year (with a big arbitration number too boot in this coming off-season); and still hitting .207 for the year. Just keep him, have him hit 9th, and have him focused on playing elite defense in CF when he comes back.

[brwnman]

Primary reason Jays are in 1st place is because of offense and particularly the turnaround in hitting with RISP.

You're not getting anything elite in return for Varsho. But the Jays should absolutely look to move him for SP at the trade deadline.

No team is going to give up a valuable SP for a guy like Varsho who will be coming off injury after nearly two months, and who will be a free agent after next year (with a big arbitration number too boot in this coming off-season); and still hitting .207 for the year. Just keep him, have him hit 9th, and have him focused on playing elite defense in CF when he comes back.

The hope would be to trade Varsho + prospect(s) for some SP. I don't know how much/if any room is in the budget to acquire players. Varsho would just be a salary filler.

[Rapcity_11]

of course it makes sense. I’m counting the games he played in, but not giving him credit for the wins in partially played games.

It’s the theme of this thread. Pick and choose.

No, the math is wrong.

The Jays are 15-9 when he plays. 3 of those games are partial (all wins). Take those away and they have 12-9, aka a 57% winning percentage. And that even includes a "partial" game in which he was pulled in the 9th up 14-0.

You can't even troll correctly.

Nope, I trolled correctly.

He played in 24 games. I only counted 2 as partial games. Didn't give him credit for the wins in the partial games he played (but counted the games). 13 wins in 24 games. 54%.

But I can use your partial games number! 3 partial games. Helps my argument even more. 50%. 12 wins in 24 games.

That's asinine logic/math. Like I said, if you're going to troll at least do it correctly.

[brwnman]

No, the math is wrong.

The Jays are 15-9 when he plays. 3 of those games are partial (all wins). Take those away and they have 12-9, aka a 57% winning percentage. And that even includes a "partial" game in which he was pulled in the 9th up 14-0.

You can't even troll correctly.

Nope, I trolled correctly.

He played in 24 games. I only counted 2 as partial games. Didn't give him credit for the wins in the partial games he played (but counted the games). 13 wins in 24 games. 54%.

But I can use your partial games number! 3 partial games. Helps my argument even more. 50%. 12 wins in 24 games.

That's asinine logic/math. Like I said, if you're going to troll at least do it correctly.

asinine logic was rather the point.

[Randle McMurphy]

Desperate, illogical trolling is all the Moreno backers/Varsho haters have left in the aftermath of this trade. Backed themselves truly into a corner with no way out.

[brwnman]

Disingenuous cherry-picking stats, and desperation is all Varshonites have left. All they can do is add players not involved in the trade to try and even out a trade that has been wholly lost by this organization.

[Parataxis]

Can we please lock this thread already?

The amount of ridiculous hyperbole trolling and people lying through their teeth to try to validate themselves as correct is beyond embarrassing.

If the thread gets locked, then all the ceaseless bickering will break containment and start spreading into every gameday thread. I'd really rather just let it happen here.

[JaysRule15]

Can we please lock this thread already?

The amount of ridiculous hyperbole trolling and people lying through their teeth to try to validate themselves as correct is beyond embarrassing.

If the thread gets locked, then all the ceaseless bickering will break containment and start spreading into every gameday thread. I'd really rather just let it happen here.

Yup this is exactly why this thread is still here. Don't need game threads full of this debate lol.

[Los_29]

The trade gave Zona the best player, catcher, and 6 years of control for that player (Moreno). And gave them cap relief after year 1 to be able to extend LF they also acquired in the deal (Gurriel). AND allowed them to keep the best OF in their organization as part of the deal (Carroll)?

all for an oft-injured OF who's been easily replaced by Triple-A/Quad-A players and is on a bloated arb deal and the team is playing better without him than they have ever played with him? Maybe he's just bad for vibes.

Massive W for Arizona.

Moreno being a highly touted prospect is irrelevant. At this point, it’s only about results. Moreno’s power still remains a big concern, he doesn’t play often and Gurriel is a decent bat but a horrible OF’er.

Hard to argue that this wasn’t a win for the Jays given Varsho’s overall contribution and the fact they replaced Moreno with a better catcher in Kirk.

[bluerap23]

Is it just a coincidence that the offence has been SO much better without our .200 hitter that strikes out over 30% of the time?

[brwnman]

The trade gave Zona the best player, catcher, and 6 years of control for that player (Moreno). And gave them cap relief after year 1 to be able to extend LF they also acquired in the deal (Gurriel). AND allowed them to keep the best OF in their organization as part of the deal (Carroll)?

all for an oft-injured OF who's been easily replaced by Triple-A/Quad-A players and is on a bloated arb deal and the team is playing better without him than they have ever played with him? Maybe he's just bad for vibes.

Massive W for Arizona.

Moreno being a highly touted prospect is irrelevant. At this point, it’s only about results. Moreno’s power still remains a big concern, he doesn’t play often and Gurriel is a decent bat but a horrible OF’er.

Hard to argue that this wasn’t a win for the Jays given Varsho’s overall contribution and the fact they replaced Moreno with a better catcher in Kirk.

While I didn't mention Moreno being a highly touted prospect in that post, it's not exactly irrelevant. Him being one of the top prospects at the time presented the Jays an opportunity to acquire an impact player. So it's about opportunity cost. Who did they miss out on?

And if it's only about results, then Zona continues to win this in a landslide.

Year 1 - Zona makes the WS, Jays don't
Year 2 - Zona finished with 89 wins, Jays win 74
Year 3 - Varsho has barely played; Jays thriving without him in the lineup or on the field (continuing to prove dWAR is an bloated stat when calculating bWAR for OFs)

Zona is also doing this in a much more difficult division.

Moreno’s power still remains a big concern

This remains a hilarious argument when you consider Moreno has been a much better hitter than Varsho. Would you rather have a below average hitter who can hit a homerun once in a while or an above average hitter who's younger, cheaper and has more years of control?

they replaced Moreno with a better catcher in Kirk.

Ah, the Kirk argument. Who has been the better catcher... only this year and not the last 2 years. Moreno has been much better than him too sans this year. But since we're bringing up alternatives kept, D'Backs kept Carroll over Varsho and he's better than any player mentioned. So really, they absolutely wiped the floor with this trade.

[-MetA4-]

Ah, the Kirk argument. Who has been the better catcher... only this year and not the last 2 years. Moreno has been much better than him too sans this year.

LOL, WHAT?

Kirk is going to have two 4+ fWAR seasons over the past 4 seasons. Moreno has zero career seasons over 3+ fWAR. None. Yes he may hit that number this season depending on his health, but injuries are a part of player evaluation so he doesn't get extra points on "what ifs" because he can't stay healthy.

The fact that we are still even arguing Kirk vs. Moreno is proof that this discussion is beyond embarrassing at this point. Kirk is CLEARLY better than Moreno:

1) He is more durable and thus more valuable because he plays more games over the course of a season.
2) His peak offensive upside is CLEARLY above Moreno. 129 wRC+ in 2022 and 117 wRC+ this season. Moreno has never produced a single season near those numbers.
3) Kirk has flat out produced the two best seasons that either one of them have had.

You've lost on Kirk vs. Moreno. Just give it up already. You're not going to make "fetch" happen".

[-MetA4-]

And I'm going to repeat myself from literally years ago when I already explained this, because I notice you clowns are repeating the same FALSE arguments over and over again:

Moreno was NOT the "#1 prospect in baseball" at the time of the trade. He was TEMPORARILY named #1 on a mid-season update after several players above him graduated off of the list, months before he was actually traded. These mid-season lists are hardly full rankings. More importantly, he fell back another 6-7 slots on the actual FINAL year-end rankings in the same year where he was temporality ranked #1, and then fell another few slots in the preseason 2023 rankings. So nobody had him anywhere near #1 after his entire season was evaluated.

The Moreno trade happened in the offseason on December 23rd, AFTER he hit for just .105 ISO in 62 games in AAA, and then for .058 ISO in 25 games in Toronto to conclude the season. This noticeable drop in his power was reflected in the final updates to the prospect lists (hence why he didn't finish the season as anyone's #1 overall prospect), but more importantly it was clearly observed by both the Blue Jays (who were trading him), and likely other smart evaluating organizations as well.

MLB front offices do their own player evaluations; they do not log onto MLB.com or Baseball America and look at their current rankings when evaluating talent. MLB front offices are in fact always AHEAD of the publication rankings in terms of actual prospect stock evaluation, because those publication rankings are created primarily using feedback FROM MLB scouts and front office evaluators. They talk to as many scouts and evaluators as they can, and then move players up or down depending on what they hear. This means that they are always BEHIND the actual industry consensus.

On their final 2022 update, Moreno ranked #7 on BA. In January of 2023 they released their pre-season 2023 rankings (basically right after Moreno was traded), and he ranked #13 on this list. This would be the most relevant up-to-date ranking on his prospect status to use in this discussion, given that it came right when he was traded. And its very likely that certain teams who value metrics like exit velocity, barrel%, and hard hit% would have had him ranked even lower than that given that he was below average in all of those except exit velocity (where he was only league average) in his 25-game MLB stint in 2022. He did nothing but slap the ball around in AAA and in those 25 MLB games he played. Teams who value power would reflect that in their own internal rankings.

Long story short, his stock had already fallen outside the Top 10 range when he was actually traded, and its highly improbable that ANY team was valuing him as the "#1 prospect in baseball" in December 2022. Which means that while he was a very very good prospect, it is a giant leap to pretend like he had so much value that the Jays should have been able to dangle him for any MLB All-Star with control.

[brwnman]

Ah, the Kirk argument. Who has been the better catcher... only this year and not the last 2 years. Moreno has been much better than him too sans this year.

LOL, WHAT?

Kirk is going to have two 4+ fWAR seasons over the past 4 seasons. Moreno has zero career seasons over 3+ fWAR. None. Yes he may hit that number this season depending on his health, but injuries are a part of player evaluation so he doesn't get extra points on "what ifs" because he can't stay healthy.

The fact that we are still even arguing Kirk vs. Moreno is proof that this discussion is beyond embarrassing at this point. Kirk is CLEARLY better than Moreno:

1) He is more durable and thus more valuable because he plays more games over the course of a season.
2) His peak offensive upside is CLEARLY above Moreno. 129 wRC+ in 2022 and 117 wRC+ this season. Moreno has never produced a single season near those numbers.
3) Kirk has flat out produced the two best seasons that either one of them have had.

You've lost on Kirk vs. Moreno. Just give it up already. You're not going to make "fetch" happen".

Why are you considering 4 seasons when Moreno was still on the Jays (minors) and didn't really play? Maybe reading comprehension will help here since I clearly mentioned last 2 years Moreno has been better and this year, Kirk has been better this year. It only makes sense to look at this timeframe in the context of the trade.


Kirk in 2023 - 1.9 bWAR in 123 games
Moreno in 2023 - 4.3 bWAR in 111 games

Kirk in 2024 - 2.0 bWAR in 103 games
Moreno in 2024 - 2.6 bWAR in 97 games

This seems to indicate that Moreno has been more productive in fewer games than Kirk. Clearly, I've "lost on Kirk vs Moreno" and should give up.

It's funny, because I actually like Kirk a lot, love his offensive upside, but he didn't produce the last couple of years. Let's not pretend Kirk wouldn't have lost more PT in 2023 to Danny Jansen who was the superior catcher but dealt with injuries himself.

In terms of durability, sure, you can hold that against Moreno. But Kirk has yet to play a full season as a catcher since this trade has been made. This year will be his first chance for a full complement of games as the starting catcher since the trade was made. But to your other point, no, more durable doesn't automatically make you more valuable because you play more games - that's a really bad take.