Vernon Wells' contract as the Blue Jays' noose

[youngLion]

I think this issue is worth discussing in-depth. I don't intend for this to be a forum to discuss Vernon's merits and abilities as a player, and I definitely don't want it to be a forum in which people vent about day-to-day performance. I just want to discuss the difficult situation in which the team itself in with his deal. With that mind, I'd like to establish a few assumptions to guide the discussion:

1) One can't blame Wells for signing the deal.
The guy was offered a boatload of money and he took it. Every single one of us would do the same so we can't vilify him for it.

2) Wells' production will be decent, but declining.
Last year Vernon hit .300 and knocked 20 homers in 2/3rds of a season which is great, but he's 30 now and there's no way he's going to be that productive by the end of this deal.

3) There's no point in flaming JP for offering the contract.
This isn't to say that these feelings of anger aren't valid, but bitching about Riccardi doesn't take Wells' name of the contract and it's certainly not conducive to constructive conversation. Wilner has hypothesized that this deal was actually Paul Godfrey's doing and not Riccardi's, but again this doesn't matter; what's done is done.

4) You could put a gun to his head and he still wouldn't exercise his opt-out clause.

Alright here's how the contract breaks down, according to Rotoworld.com:

2009: $4,687,500
2010: $21m
2011: $23m
2012: $21m
2013: $21m
2014: $21m

Notes
-Player opt-out clause after 2011
-Full no-trade clause.

So my basic question is this: how the heck does the team deal with this massive burden? We talk generally about how Wells and Rios are overpaid underachievers, but frankly I think it's totally unreasonable to lump in Rios' deal with Wells. In my mind Rios got market value, whereas Vernon is a good (not great) offensive player, but this contract is just in another stratosphere that his production will never match. To offer a couple points of reference to the current economic climate in baseball, Adam Dunn signed for 10mill and Bobby Abreu signed for 5 this past offseason.

Of course there's no salary cap in baseball, but it's not 1993 anymore and the Jays are pretty much forced to self-impose a cap in order to be economically viable. I think Wells' deal seriously jeopardizes the team's ability to go after free agents, resign their own, heck it might even affect the team's ability to draft. The Strasburg hype machine has demonstrated what a major concern "signability" has become with absolutely **** MLB draft system, but that's another issue.

So you can't trade him, you can't cut him, and you can't hide him in the minors. Wells contract isn't a total loss; I'll guess that he'll average 20-25 homers and 85-95 rbi over the balance of the deal. Still it's a huge burden for a team in Toronto's economic situation. Wells has been nothing but a class act and a very solid performer for this organization, but hell, sometimes I find myself hoping he'll get caught running a brothel out of Paul Beeston's office just so they have grounds to void the deal. Part of me thinks that the team won't even be economically able to seriously contend until the deal is up.

So what do you guys think? How do the Blue Jays deal with this absurd, onerous contract? Is there some other way of dealing with it that I haven't thought of? Or am I making too much of a big deal out of it?

EDIT: ESPN and a couple of other online sources cite Wells' salary for this season as $4,687,500. I'm pretty sure that the other numbers are accurate as I know that the deal does shoot into that 20mill range in the last few years of the deal, but any corrections are welcome.

[SharoneWright]

Godfrey's fault totally. Well documented.

The idea was for Vernon to be the face of the franchise. A couple of all-star games and he gets a fiasco of a contract. Remember, management was semi-reeling from WhiteJays allegations as well. This contract was stupid the second it drove off the lot.

Trade him for 50 cents on the dollar any chance we get. The Yanks are somewhat thin in the outfield... I would personally assume half his contract in exchange for a bag of maple bats. Rios in CF, with Snider and Lind (or any low level signing allowing Lind to DH or play 1st) is better up the middle and saves us over 10million a year for 5 consecutive years. Not to mention the maple bats...

He will be a corner outfielder by 2011 if not sooner. He's already cost us games with his glove this year. And his approach at the plate is clinically schizophrenic. The fact that he's not a #4 hitter is obvious to anyone. What's less obvious is where he might actually fit in the order. #7?

Imagine being able to use some of that extra coin to resign Halladay. Or another stud. Our hands are tied when it comes to drafting large contract prospects for years... We're gonna have to let quality players go when their contracts come up. What happens to Scutaro and Barajas next year? What happens when we don't control Lind in a couple years? Our scouts permanent job for the next 5 years is to scour for value. Forget looking for the best players, look for players we can afford. All the while Vernon is gonna play Left Field and hit .254 with about 16 homeruns.

[youngLion]

Godfrey's fault totally. Well documented.

The idea was for Vernon to be the face of the franchise. A couple of all-star games and he gets a fiasco of a contract. Remember, management was semi-reeling from WhiteJays allegations as well. This contract was stupid the second it drove off the lot.

Christ I sure hope that idiotic excuse for a scandal didn't factor in to the signing. That story was always so absurd. I don't remember it ever becoming such a big deal that management was "reeling" but they surely did consider the PR side of the contract.

Trade him for 50 cents on the dollar any chance we get. The Yanks are somewhat thin in the outfield... I would personally assume half his contract in exchange for a bag of maple bats. Rios in CF, with Snider and Lind (or any low level signing allowing Lind to DH or play 1st) is better up the middle and saves us over 10million a year for 5 consecutive years. Not to mention the maple bats...

He will be a corner outfielder by 2011 if not sooner. He's already cost us games with his glove this year. And his approach at the plate is clinically schizophrenic. The fact that he's not a #4 hitter is obvious to anyone. What's less obvious is where he might actually fit in the order. #7?

Imagine being able to use some of that extra coin to resign Halladay. Or another stud. Our hands are tied when it comes to drafting large contract prospects for years... We're gonna have to let quality players go when their contracts come up. What happens to Scutaro and Barajas next year? What happens when we don't control Lind in a couple years? Our scouts permanent job for the next 5 years is to scour for value. Forget looking for the best players, look for players we can afford. All the while Vernon is gonna play Left Field and hit .254 with about 16 homeruns.

Even if the team was willing to eat a significant portion of the contract there are still serious barriers to any kind of trade. The first is still player value. Wells' isn't hitting right now and while I think everyone expects him to improve somewhat it may still be difficult to find takers for even 10mill of Vernon Wells. Also, while it's not Beeston's deal, he might not like the idea of undermining the franchise by taking such a hit to admit a mistake, especially now. There's no way the team pays half his salary for him to play in NYC for FIVE full years. One? Easily. Two? Maybe, but paying for guys to play for your rival is a raw deal.

On top of all of this, Wells has a full no trade clause, he has every right to simply decide to stay.

[gp2015]

The best option at this point is to trade him to the Yankees and pay them some of his contract like Texas did when they traded ARod to them. They were very interested in him a couple years ago and I'm sure they would have no problems with paying him 13-14 million per season.

[Mustard_Tiger]

It's a brutal contract, and all you can do is play the guy until he proves he's no longer good enough to be a major league player (he may turn into what Joe Carter was in the mid-to-late 90s). If he has a good year, try to trade him immediately (it will be difficult). At some point in the next few years he's going to have to be moved to a corner outfield position, as well.

[Michael Bradley]

Right now he is playing badly and the economy stinks, so no team (even the Yankees) are going to want to pay him even half of his current salary.

However, if by some chance he has one of his once in a leap year type seasons where he puts up a .900 OPS and 30+ HR, then try to see what the market is for him. The Jays would still have to eat up salary, but it would be considerably less in that scenario depending on who is getting him.

Ultimately, the Jays are stuck with him. He has a full NTC and a contract that only elite players get. Unless he turns into an elite player, get used to him.

[jonvito]

I think this is why we have to try and make a run for it this year. With his contract going up soon we will need the fans to start flooding the gates. A good run this year and a playoff birth will get the ball rolling and hopefully the media can get the city pumped about the jays for the next few years. And i think Wells is not suited for the cleanup spot. The three hole whould be a good spot for him and Lind at cleanup. Rios can slide back behind Lind.

I can't see us getting rid of the big contract unless a big money team loses an outfielder for the remainder of a season and is in the middle of a playoff race that same year. I'm not ok with the money the jays spent on him but he would be a fool not to accept it. I would have done the same thing he did in a second.

[youngLion]

I think this is why we have to try and make a run for it this year. With his contract going up soon we will need the fans to start flooding the gates. A good run this year and a playoff birth will get the ball rolling and hopefully the media can get the city pumped about the jays for the next few years. And i think Wells is not suited for the cleanup spot. The three hole whould be a good spot for him and Lind at cleanup. Rios can slide back behind Lind.

I can't see us getting rid of the big contract unless a big money team loses an outfielder for the remainder of a season and is in the middle of a playoff race that same year. I'm not ok with the money the jays spent on him but he would be a fool not to accept it. I would have done the same thing he did in a second.

This is an interesting idea, but with all of the injuries to the rotation I just don't see the team trading much in the way of prospects just to compete this year. I don't think management has pegged this season as the year to "go for it", despite the still surprising start.

[evilRyu]

When it's all said and done, Vernon Wells will be statistically considered the all-time 2nd best offensive Blue Jay ... I really don't know how I feel about that.

[SharoneWright]

When it's all said and done, Vernon Wells will be statistically considered the all-time 2nd best offensive Blue Jay ... I really don't know how I feel about that.

Delgado, sure. But he'll also never touch Robbie's single season hits mark, who had passed Tony Fernandez. He's in another universe when compared to John Olerud's batting average stats. And George Bell didn't win an AL MVP based on his glove...

Lots of years may equal lots of hits. But also lots and lots and lots of runners left in scoring position.

[Modern_epic]

Yes, lots and lots and lots of runners left in scoring position. Just about exact same number as you would predict if you only had his career batting average and total ABs w/ RISP to check.

[SharoneWright]

Yes, lots and lots and lots of runners left in scoring position. Just about exact same number as you would predict if you only had his career batting average and total ABs w/ RISP to check.

Yes, I should check the stats...

The stats also tell me that "VDUB" should only play during the months of July and August...

[youngLion]

Yes, lots and lots and lots of runners left in scoring position. Just about exact same number as you would predict if you only had his career batting average and total ABs w/ RISP to check.

According to baseball-reference.com, in 1186 ABs he's hitting at a .275/.340/.480 clip with 54 homers and 496 RBI. This is actually a little better than I expected but he's still not a world beater.

[Modern_epic]

For his career, it is 5 points worse in BA and Slg, but 10 points better in OBP. So it is exactly what you should expect, since pretty much no one in baseball has RISP stats that are significantly different from their career numbers. People just pitch around him more.

[evilRyu]

When it's all said and done, Vernon Wells will be statistically considered the all-time 2nd best offensive Blue Jay ... I really don't know how I feel about that.

Delgado, sure. But he'll also never touch Robbie's single season hits mark, who had passed Tony Fernandez. He's in another universe when compared to John Olerud's batting average stats. And George Bell didn't win an AL MVP based on his glove...

Lots of years may equal lots of hits. But also lots and lots and lots of runners left in scoring position.

I was more or less talking about cumulative all-time stats as a Blue Jay.

Barring any injuries or trades, and that he plays at least another 2 or 3 seasons, Vernon is on pace to become:

#2 in at-bats
#2 in runs scored
#1 in games played
#2 in hits
#2 in doubles
#2 in Home Runs
#2 in RBI's
#2 in total bases

[kelso]

He's totally brutal right now. What bothers me the most about this guy is he looks like he goes to the plate with absolutely no clue about what he wants to do. He chases bad pitches all the time, he guesses way too much for a major league hitter (let alone a "franchise" player) and with runners on he isn't clutch at all whatsoever.

Jesse Barfiled was on the FAN590 this morning and he made some good points about Wells- he said he needs to rebuild his swing and develop a new approach at the plate. He said all players have to do that at some point in their career as pitchers develop new strategies to pitch them.

It's painful to watch him right now; I'm sure its just killing him as well, as he's not a bad guy- I wish for his sake and ours he figures it out soon.

[spykelee]

<<<< Is absolutely devasted that he can't watch V-dub go 0-4 with 3 strikeouts, and a high chopper to shortstop that he almost beats out, but we all look at the positives as atleast he didn't pull his hamstring again, coupled with a dropped fly ball at the wall...