Chavez have a future with the Jays?

Post #1 » by **YogiStewart** » Wed Sep 9, 2009 12:02 am

Very strong on D, has a pretty good batting average.
We don't have any catchers coming up the pipeline in the future.

you feel comfortable with Chavez as the every-day catcher until an all-star is developed or there is a need to upgrade?

Post #2 » by **Schad** » Wed Sep 9, 2009 12:15 am

I'd much rather let Kyle Phillips have at 'er. Right now, Chavez has an OPS+ of 74 (quite bad), and he's doing it with a BAbip 30 points above his career average. If he sinks back to his career levels, which is very likely given that he's working on a pretty small body of work this year, we'll have a 37 year old everyday catcher who hits .240, can't draw a walk to save his life, and has limited power. That's lineup death. Throwing out an extra 5-10 runners a year just ain't worth it, IMO.

s e n s i · Post #3 » by **s e n s i** » Wed Sep 9, 2009 12:59 am

Can anyone fill me in on Arencibia's deal? Mediocre average, but a bunch of extra base hits this year. That's pretty much all I can gather right now. Can a LV51's enthusiast provide something more telling?

Post #4 » by **Schad** » Wed Sep 9, 2009 1:23 am

chocolateSensi wrote:Can anyone fill me in on Arencibia's deal? Mediocre average, but a bunch of extra base hits this year. That's pretty much all I can gather right now. Can a LV51's enthusiast provide something more telling?

He has no plate discipline. Like, at all. He can crush fastballs, but Sickels and others have stated that he looks like a mess against even a mediocre breaking ball. And because he can't lay off of them, he doesn't work enough favourable counts to either a) draw the occasional walk, or b) work a fastball that he can destroy. And when he's behind in the count, is sounds like his approach doesn't change...he keeps swinging for the big one, even when in off-speed counts.

What's worrying is that he's a three-year college guy who now has 2+ years in the pros under his belt; if he doesn't get it soon, he won't get it. And if he doesn't get it, he's Rod Barajas with a little extra power and a slightly worse average (if such a thing is possible).

Hoopstarr · Post #5 » by **Hoopstarr** » Wed Sep 9, 2009 1:39 am

Schad stole my thoughts. Batting average is a mostly useless stat anyway.

At one point it looked like the Jays had some pretty nice depth at catcher with Arencibia, Brian Jeroloman, and Robinson Diaz, but now all 3 have taken steps back, with Diaz being traded for Bautista.

s e n s i · Post #6 » by **s e n s i** » Wed Sep 9, 2009 1:56 am

Thanks, Schaddy. That's not too disappointing of an update I guess...as long as it's rectifiable. Not that trigger happiness is a condition that can be honed overnight though, lol. Can his defense make up for any of that lack of plate discipline?

Post #7 » by **Schad** » Wed Sep 9, 2009 2:26 am

chocolateSensi wrote:Thanks, Schaddy. That's not too disappointing of an update I guess...as long as it's rectifiable. Not that trigger happiness is a condition that can be honed overnight though, lol. Can his defense make up for any of that lack of plate discipline?

Surprisingly, yeah...his defense is good enough that it definitely won't hurt his cause. He was billed as a below average catcher out of college, such that some foresaw a possible move to first base down the road. All reports now are that he has a well-above-average arm and good feel behind the plate.

And because catcher is such a thin position, and catchers with power rarer still, he'll get chance after chance.

Hoopstarr · Post #8 » by **Hoopstarr** » Wed Sep 9, 2009 2:35 am

His defense was said to be weak to just average in college but he has always had a great arm, leading some to think that he might move to 3rd. Based on what I've read, he has improved his blocking and game-calling in the minors but it's still average and his arm remains his best defensive skill. Defense isn't the problem though. It's hitting breaking balls. And for a 23 year old with a bat like his, he should've got it by now.

Post #9 » by **Schad** » Wed Sep 9, 2009 3:12 am

He doesn't even need to learn to hit them to be effective enough to be a major league catcher, really...he just needs to learn to recognize them. Nate McLouth comes to mind as a guy who still can't hit a curveball to save his life, but has developed good enough pitch awareness to let the bad ones go.

Post #10 » by **YogiStewart** » Wed Sep 9, 2009 12:53 pm

Alex A was on the radio last night and gave a brief summary on all minor league players/Sept call-ups.
touched on the catchers and his comment on both prospects was: power, but crap on-base % and lots of strike-outs. zero plate discipline. hence they didn't get the call-up.
but he made it sound like Arencibia and Phillips v2.0 may challenge for a job w/the Jays next year. i really doubt Arencibia would stick around unless he somehow flicks the switch and lays off non-fastballs

Post #11 » by **Schad** » Wed Sep 9, 2009 2:22 pm

Was he talking about both? Because that doesn't really apply to Phillips, whose walk rate is a bit over 9%...not great, but manageable. His biggest problem at the major league level will be the fact that he lacks doubles power, and singles will be harder to come by in the bigs; BP projects him as a .254/.324/.378 hitter. As far as plate discipline, that's worlds better than Barajas (an OBP of .272, walk rate of 4.3%) and Chavez (.298, 3.2%).

I'm curious how they'll use him now that he has been called up...he hit righties very well in AAA, and deserves a true audition. I'd love to see him get the bulk of the starts over the final month, but I have my doubts that Cito will cooperate.