Series: Blue Red Jays Sox Summer

[Peteros]

Tallet needs to go. Litsch has looked awful in his first 5 starts. I hope Rzep takes his spot after the All-Star break.

[RapsFanInVA]

Can someone with knowledge of advanced pitching statistics explain to me why Tallet should be allowed to pitch for us? I think he's awful, but am open to someone giving me evidence that he's good.

[Randle McMurphy]

Can someone with knowledge of advanced pitching statistics explain to me why Tallet should be allowed to pitch for us? I think he's awful, but am open to someone giving me evidence that he's good.

He was decent as a reliever for the Jays in 2007 (3.35 FIP/4.70 xFIP) and 2008 (3.61 FIP/4.14 xFIP), contributing 1.7 WAR over the 2 years.

He's been awful this year (7.50 FIP/5.70 xFIP), but I'm guessing the Jays are hoping he returns to 2007/2008 form as a reliever. He shouldn't be pitching in close games right now, though.

[tsherkin]

All of our relievers have been inconsistent as hell this year.

One thing one can note is that he's using his slider about half as often, in favor of using a cutter and a change more often, and his fastball velocity is down. He's been hugely vulnerable to the long ball and he's getting tagged for hits at a higher rate than he's seen since his last year in Cleveland, and he's walking a LOT of guys. His command has never been great, I mean he's a career 4.2 BB/9 guy with the Jays, but it's been especially bad this year.

The WORST part is that his baBIP is the same as Ubaldo Jiminez's, although FIP and xFIP are actually predicted to drag his ERA down, not back up. Low LD% (like 14%), not getting ahead in the count very often...

I don't think he's taking well to the new pitching philosophy. I don't think it works well for him. Hopefully he can turn it around, because he has been a solid reliever, but eeew, he's been positively awful this year.

[gei]

is the roof broken?

[kwamebargnani]

I'm so sick and tired all these homeruns swings. Do they ever take pitches?

[Randle McMurphy]

Well that complicates things a bit. Litsch looked very good today and probably earned another start.

[RapsFanInVA]

one run loss number 18

40% of our losses are by one run, doesn't that seem high?

[Schad]

one run loss number 18

40% of our losses are by one run, doesn't that seem high?

Yeah, it's a bit high. However, we're dead on our Pythagorean win/loss at the moment, so our unluckiness there is being offset elsewhere (by our -21 in blowouts, mainly); we're 'playing to form', so to speak. Last year was a different story...21-28 in one-run games, +65 in blowouts (!?), net result -9 wins from where we'd be expected to finish. So at least we're genuinely mediocre this time.

[Hoopstarr]

one run loss number 18

40% of our losses are by one run, doesn't that seem high?

Yeah, it's a bit high. However, we're dead on our Pythagorean win/loss at the moment, so our unluckiness there is being offset elsewhere (by our -21 in blowouts, mainly); we're 'playing to form', so to speak. Last year was a different story...21-28 in one-run games, +65 in blowouts (!?), net result -9 wins from where we'd be expected to finish. So at least we're genuinely mediocre this time.

Not playing to form according to 3rd order wins, again: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/stati ... ndings.php

[Schad]

Yeah, but unfortunately we don't have the luxury of adjusting for SoS...heh, we're playing to form as an AL East team.

[tsherkin]

So I went to the Litsch game.

500 deck, behind and a shade to the left of home plate, right where I like to be.

5.2 IP through, Litsch was looking great. He was missing glove-side off the plate with his fastball a bunch, but seemed to do a good job recovering and I don't remember him being behind 2-0 to many guys. Had a no-no to that point. Then, he pitched from the stretch when Scoots doubled, followed up by Darnell McDonald socking a 2-run dinger and Ortiz adding a solo shot. Litsch then finished the inning.

6 IP, 1 BB, a couple of Ks, 3 ER... pretty decent line that sort of belied how effective he'd been to that point. I don't remember why Boston pulled Beltre in the middle of the game, but he was done right about when the Sox went up 3-0.

Aaron Hill socked a dinger! He's still crap on the year as a batter, but that was nice to see. Left field, too, just like all of his dingers from last year, heh.

It's really sad, but if Lind and Hill were at even 2/3s of their production from last year, we'd be laughing offensively...