Michael Bradley wrote:
Morrow was being stretched out last season. In June of 2009 he started six games for the Mariners, then was sent down in July to start 10 games in AAA, then came back to start four games in September. That is 20 starts. His innings were down because he was switching roles. The stretching out simply continued into this season. He was a starter from June 2009-onwards.
Which resulted in him throwing 106 innings as a starter. Keep in mind that his June starts were of the 'baby steps' variety...over four of them, he only pitched 16.2 innings. Yes, he started 20 games, but he wasn't what you would consider a full-fledged starter for about a third of them.
Really, what should the Jays have done this year to stretch him out? Put him at a 5 inning max? Top him out at 90 pitches a start? He was basically doing that last season. The Jays have been pretty careful to not have him throw too many pitches in starts (no-hit bid aside). Even if you took the games where he threw 108, 109, 109, 112, 116, and 137 pitches, and turned those into 95 pitch outings (for example), that would be a decrease of 121 pitches over the course of a season. Basically one start and change.
I don't think that they should have done anything differently. I just think that they shouldn't treat him as a pitcher who is largely stretched out...they should treat him as a guy who is still in the early stages of transitioning into a full-time starter. They should also take into consideration the fact that he has more risk factors than most: he throws a lot of pitches per inning; he's a hard-thrower; he throws a high percentage of breaking balls; he's diabetic. Those factors, combined with the fact that we're playing for absolutely nothing right now, should be enough to take it very, very easy with him...two more starts, max, with extra off-days between.
I think we are in agreement that Morrow needs to be monitored the rest of the way. My point is, there was no getting around increasing his workload if they converted him into a starter. He is a power pitcher who throws a lot of pitches and struggles with command. Limit him to a Strasburg workload and he's lucky to break 5 innings most starts.
Agreed, which is why I don't object to his treatment thus far, with the exception of Nohitapalooza. However, having subjected him to that, it's time to reevaluate his innings in a big way, and if that means shutting him down before September, shut him down before September.
There are cases like Escobar or McGowan where pitchers break down after constant role changes. Then there is someone like Adam Wainwright who went from 180+ innings to 75 in relief to 200+ in the course of three seasons and hasn't felt anything (although he was only in relief in 2006). Pitchers are injury risks regardless, and the Jays are being careful with Morrow, more careful than I have seen them with any pitcher over the last two decades. They were riding Carpenter, Escobar, and (to a lesser extent) Halladay to the ground when they came up.
Yes, a guy can be treated perfectly and get injured, or handled roughly and remain healthy. But it's about playing the percentages with a very valuable asset during a rebuilding phase where we have absolutely nothing to gain by running him out there another 5-6 times, especially after he just endured by far the heaviest single-game workload of his career. We have a potential front-line starter on our hands who is under control for another three years, and if it takes two more seasons to ease him into a full workload, give 'er...right now, we have all the time in the world.
