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The (potential) value of a comp rounder

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The (potential) value of a comp rounder 

Post#1 » by Schad » Sun Feb 27, 2011 3:11 am

Always nice to see what we might have in store for us with our mountain of compensation picks:

The comp rounders who've rocketed up the charts:

* Mike Trout, Angels (#2) - Yankees first round pick (2009) for Mark Teixeira
* Mike Montgomery, Royals (#19) - supplemental first round pick (2008) for David Riske
* Kyle Drabek, Blue Jays (#29) - Mets first round pick (2006) for Billy Wagner (originally drafted by the Phillies, part of the Roy Halladay trade)
* Travis d'Arnaud, Blue Jays (#36) - supplemental first round pick (2007) for David Dellucci (originally drafted by the Phillies, part of Halladay trade)
* Jordan Lyles, Astros (#42) - supplemental first round pick (2008) for Trever Miller
* Nick Franklin, Mariners (#53) - Phillies first round pick (2009) for Raul Ibanez
* Anthony Ranaudo, Red Sox (#67) - supplemental first round pick (2010) for Jason Bay
* Jake Odorizzi, Royals (#69) - supplemental first round pick (2008) for Francisco Cordero (originally drafted by the Brewers, part of the Zack Greinke trade)
* Tyler Skaggs, D'backs (#82) - supplemental first round pick (2009) for Teixeira (originally drafted by the Angels, part of the Dan Haren trade)
* Tanner Scheppers, Rangers (#94) - supplemental first round pick (2009) for Milton Bradley
* Matt Davidson, D'Backs (#99) - supplemental first round pick (2009) for Orlando Hudson


Remove D'Arnaud (as the only 2007 pick on the list; a number of players, including Brett Cecil, have already graduated to the bigs from that class) and look at the past three drafts, and you have 10 comp guys currently sitting in the top 100 out of around 45 1s picks...a success rate (insofar as establishing one's self as a good prospect constitutes success) of 23%.

Depending on whether you're a glass full/glass empty person, that's either good news or bad news; with four comp picks, it suggests that stand a pretty good chance of ending up with one fairly serious prospect. Which isn't necessarily enticing when you consider that even that one might not go on to be much, but when the cost of business was a pair of aging relievers (one good, one not so good) and two surplus-to-requirements catchers (one who never wore the uniform), it's hard to complain about the return.
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Re: The (potential) value of a comp rounder 

Post#2 » by satyr9 » Mon Feb 28, 2011 1:47 am

I can't see how even a half empty guy could see the 4 guys we let walk being too high a price to net us 4 shots at that level of talent. Of course prospects are hit and miss as are picks turning into legit prospects, but I love this idea of recycling relievers for comps and while I don't think doing it with C's every year is a great idea or a realistic option I'll do that too when the opportunity presents itself.

Of course the real kicker is making sure the money's there - for the time being anyway - to make sure you use those picks on the best available talent. Not saying all 4 have to be some kind of mega-overslot types, but more years like last year (maybe even paying a higher premium 'cause there's a couple guys I know I'm gonna wish we'd taken for quite a while :D).

That being said to keep up those kinds of returns AA has to continually find the FA unwanteds and get them at reasonable 1 year deals and then have them play well. Last year was perfect, but he cannot keep up a success rate that high. JMO
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Re: The (potential) value of a comp rounder 

Post#3 » by Schad » Mon Feb 28, 2011 3:06 am

The nice bit is that all of our picks are protected, so if we want to gamble on a guy who is 75/25 to sign (you still really don't want to go for guys who are unlikely to sign, as unprotected picks are considerably less valuable) we have that option.
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Re: The (potential) value of a comp rounder 

Post#4 » by torontoaces04 » Mon Feb 28, 2011 3:36 pm

Schadenfreude wrote:The nice bit is that all of our picks are protected, so if we want to gamble on a guy who is 75/25 to sign (you still really don't want to go for guys who are unlikely to sign, as unprotected picks are considerably less valuable) we have that option.


BINGO! That is what allowed us to draft high ceiling guys like Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, and Asher Woj-alphabet. So often teams settle for the "guy more likely to sign" in the 1st when the picks aren't guaranteed.
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Re: The (potential) value of a comp rounder 

Post#5 » by satyr9 » Mon Feb 28, 2011 10:46 pm

torontoaces04 wrote:
Schadenfreude wrote:The nice bit is that all of our picks are protected, so if we want to gamble on a guy who is 75/25 to sign (you still really don't want to go for guys who are unlikely to sign, as unprotected picks are considerably less valuable) we have that option.


BINGO! That is what allowed us to draft high ceiling guys like Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, and Asher Woj-alphabet. So often teams settle for the "guy more likely to sign" in the 1st when the picks aren't guaranteed.


At least one of those, Syndergaard I believe, was an unprotected pick 'cause it was compensation for one of the two Canadian kids who failed to sign the year before.
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Re: The (potential) value of a comp rounder 

Post#6 » by Schad » Mon Feb 28, 2011 11:23 pm

satyr9 wrote:At least one of those, Syndergaard I believe, was an unprotected pick 'cause it was compensation for one of the two Canadian kids who failed to sign the year before.


The Syndergaard pick was unprotected, as were the ones used to selected Kellen Sweeney and Marcus Knecht. Though all three of those picks really show what good pre-draft legwork can do...none were your typical signability senior by any means.
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Re: The (potential) value of a comp rounder 

Post#7 » by torontoaces04 » Tue Mar 1, 2011 1:15 am

Schadenfreude wrote:
satyr9 wrote:At least one of those, Syndergaard I believe, was an unprotected pick 'cause it was compensation for one of the two Canadian kids who failed to sign the year before.


The Syndergaard pick was unprotected, as were the ones used to selected Kellen Sweeney and Marcus Knecht. Though all three of those picks really show what good pre-draft legwork can do...none were your typical signability senior by any means.


It was the signing of Sweeney that really surprised me. I was a bit worried when the Jays choose him with an unprotected pick. I think he could turn out to be quite the steal.
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Re: The (potential) value of a comp rounder 

Post#8 » by Kaizen » Wed Mar 2, 2011 12:13 am

Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Ranked: 99

Sanchez is probably more likely to reach the Top 10 in the 2013 list than the 2012 list, but it's worth highlighting him as a prospect who could make a big jump with a full year in the minors. He has the frame and arm action you want to see on a high school pitcher, and his physical projection has already started to bear fruit as his velocity ticked up in the instructional league. His path to the Top 10 or Top 20 is pretty standard -- get stronger, throw the changeup more to develop a feel for it, improve command -- but he has the physical ceiling that most right-handed pitching prospects lack.


http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog?nam ... id=6171202

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