Is Jose Bautista the Best Hitter in the AL?

[Hoopstarr]

I remember it. Doc was **** pissed.

[J.Kim]

The way some of you guys apply the concept of BABIP is nonsense - it's only useful when you're looking at several hundred at bats (and even then I wouldn't go nuts over it). Are you watching the actual games? Are you saying Bautista is hitting a lot of bloop fly balls that happen to fall between outfielders?

He's hitting lasers to left and left centre - if he continues to do that, his BA will stay right where it is. Naturally, it's unlikely he can keep raking at this level for an entire season at finish at .360 .

But if / when his average does level off, it will be because he's getting less wood on the ball, not because of BABIP.

(Not quite sure if this post was directed at me, but...)

I'm not the most stats in-tuned poster here but aren't you basically saying the same thing? Especially the last part.

You're basically saying that it's unlikely for him to keep raking it at this level and that his BA will drop off because he'll get less wood on the bat...

My point was that his BA is unsustainable and that as a related point his BABIP is ridiculously high. And that he'll likely see a drop in his BA throughout the course of the year. Isn't that basically the same thing as what I said? (I do admit, this part "While I also doubt that he has a .233 BABIP like last year resulting in a .260 BA" was a bit of a phrasing error, in which I should have said "getting unlucky and hitting .260 BA" instead of "resulting in a .260 BA")

(And also, correct me if I'm wrong but, why would BABIP not matter at this early stage of the season? Doesn't it put a bit of context into the small sample batting average number that the players are putting up?)

[Hoopstarr]

The way some of you guys apply the concept of BABIP is nonsense - it's only useful when you're looking at several hundred at bats (and even then I wouldn't go nuts over it). Are you watching the actual games? Are you saying Bautista is hitting a lot of bloop fly balls that happen to fall between outfielders?

He's hitting lasers to left and left centre - if he continues to do that, his BA will stay right where it is. Naturally, it's unlikely he can keep raking at this level for an entire season at finish at .360 .

But if / when his average does level off, it will be because he's getting less wood on the ball, not because of BABIP.

His LD% of 18.6 (that's % of contact that are line drives, not % of hits that are line drives, as is sometimes thought) is above last year's rate, but it's not crazy and unsustainable. His BABIP--BA on all contact put into play--is .373 compared to his .360 average, which is insane. He is not going to sustain that luck. Thus, ZiPS projects him to end up with a .277 BA and that sounds right for a guy with his batted ball profile. It's better than his .260 last year because ZiPS is accounting for the higher LD%. So yes, if/when his average levels off, it'll be because his BABIP normalizes. For a BA change to be driven by a change in contact rates would require a huge change and that's unlikely because contact rates are usually stable.

[dagger]

Listen, you can go into a trance over the more complex stats, but the facts are simple. Despite being a guu-you-dont-pitch-to, the only fearsome bat in an otherwise mediocre order, he is carving up oppoding pitching.

His records and milestones last year often placed him in sublime company - his combinations of walks, homers, ribbies, etc, put him in epic company - where only a handful of baseball's greats have gone. Last year, at least, his average held him back from recognition as one of the best two or three bats in baseball. Now, however, he's changing that, and while .370 isn't sustainable, this kind of start - 132 points higher than his April 2010 batting average - gives him a good chance to level off at something mediocre like .290 (with maybe 60 homers and 110 RBIs and 150 walks).

Here's another one of his milestones coming up. He needs one more homer. Not sure Stark's use of "calendar" is correct.

Jose Bautista is now up to 58 home runs in the past calendar year. If he can hit two more between now and Monday, he'll become the seventh player in history to hit 60-plus in a calendar year without hitting 60 in any full season. The others, according to the Sultan of Swat Stats, SABR home run historian David Vincent: Hank Greenberg twice (60 in 1937-38 and 1938-39), Ken Griffey Jr. twice (62 in 1993-94 and 66 in 1997-98), Albert Belle (67 in 1995-96), A-Rod (63 in 2001-02), Ryan Howard (63 in 2005-06) and David Ortiz (62 in 2005-06).

[Hoopstarr]

Not that I really care about BA, but .290 is mediocre? Mediocre in Randle's world maybe.

[dagger]

Not that I really care about BA, but .290 is mediocre? Mediocre in Randle's world maybe.

I was being facetious.

The New York Times has a nice feature on Jose

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/30/sport ... 57EC4E0074

[Randle McMurphy]

Not that I really care about BA, but .290 is mediocre? Mediocre in Randle's world maybe.

Two walks over his last two starts for Gio. Progress!

Bautista's confidence level right now is so high. He's locked in, both physically and mentally. I hope it lasts for a while, I quite like having Bonds 2.0 on the team.

[BOOOOOSH]

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/w ... mvp/1.html