Jays A Leader To Acquire Heath Bell

[Randle McMurphy]

The Rangers just got Uehara, so that would appear to take them out of the Heath Bell talks.

[Randle McMurphy]

If we acquire him to stick around the biggest positive I can think of, is that its a sign they will be spending in the off season and going all out for next year, hopefully?

True, but I think the Rasmus deal was already enough of a sign of that. Wasting money on a veteran closer is something that AA should never do (nor do I think he will).

[BigLeagueChew]

What is the alternative then? We don't have a closer in the minors, we don't want to trade away propects for a closer and we don't want to waste money on a closer. So how do we get someone better than Francisco and Rauch?

[SharoneWright]

What is the alternative then? We don't have a closer in the minors, we don't want to trade away propects for a closer and we don't want to waste money on a closer. So how do we get someone better than Francisco and Rauch?

I still maintain Francisco is better than "Francisco".

[Michael Bradley]

Every team needs a relief ace. If you want to label him a closer or whatever, every team needs one. The Jays don't have one.

Now, do I think they should overpay to get one? No, but the need is definitely there. I don't care if it is just 60 innings a season, if it is 60 unhittable/lights out innings, then it will give the club a big competitive boost. You can't just put Casey Janssen in that role and assume everything will be fine, and I don't expect AA to do that either.

[CanadaB-Ball]

Every team needs a relief ace. If you want to label him a closer or whatever, every team needs one. The Jays don't have one.

Now, do I think they should overpay to get one? No, but the need is definitely there. I don't care if it is just 60 innings a season, if it is 60 unhittable/lights out innings, then it will give the club a big competitive boost. You can't just put Casey Janssen in that role and assume everything will be fine, and I don't expect AA to do that either.

To be fair, Casey Janssen has been pretty darn good this year.

Nonetheless, I agree with your point.

[Lateral Quicks]

Every team needs a relief ace. If you want to label him a closer or whatever, every team needs one. The Jays don't have one.

Now, do I think they should overpay to get one? No, but the need is definitely there. I don't care if it is just 60 innings a season, if it is 60 unhittable/lights out innings, then it will give the club a big competitive boost. You can't just put Casey Janssen in that role and assume everything will be fine, and I don't expect AA to do that either.

Strongly agree. If the Jays hope to compete next year, they'll have to win more close games than they did this year. I'm not sure why we have the likes of Trever Miller up here right now when we can be trying out some of the minor leaguers (specifically Carreno).

[Schad]

Every team needs a relief ace. If you want to label him a closer or whatever, every team needs one. The Jays don't have one.

Now, do I think they should overpay to get one? No, but the need is definitely there. I don't care if it is just 60 innings a season, if it is 60 unhittable/lights out innings, then it will give the club a big competitive boost. You can't just put Casey Janssen in that role and assume everything will be fine, and I don't expect AA to do that either.

Yeah, it's mainly the fact that relief aces are like hailstorms...they appear suddenly, make a huge impact, and are gone just as fast. We need a couple great relievers, certainly; we don't know that Heath Bell, he of the 3.77 xFIP playing in the NL West, will be such a piece in the AL East. We don't know that Henderson Alvarez or Joel Carreno won't be, as fire-balling youngsters have a rather remarkable track record of success stepping into bullpens.

The best option, IMO, is to let the market lead the way in the off-season; don't dive in with cash in hand on the first day, but look for deals with some upside. Perhaps Matt Capps (who'll almost certainly be non-tendered) is available for a 1 + options deal at $3-5m; roll the dice there. Perhaps Jonathan Broxton is available on the cheap as he tries to get healthy; commit a small amount of money and a roster spot there. Perhaps Mike Gonzalez and his suddenly-massive (SSSW) platoon splits could augur well for a rebirth as a LOOGY. Give a look to the young guys. Rather than target one potential relief ace and throw a boatload of money/assets their way, start with a group of ten or more pitchers who have the potential to be good relievers (or were in the past but lost their way), and cobble together a relief corps out of seven of their numbers.

For those teams that don't have Mariano Rivera, that's been the best model...hell, even New York's stellar bullpen (which has helped to keep them in the race all year) consists of an array of redemption stories (Luis Ayala, Boone Logan, Cory Wade and even Joba, to some extent), and young 'uns (David Robertson, Hector Noesi), with their big eighth-inning signing looking like garbage.

[Relentless88]

Every team needs a relief ace. If you want to label him a closer or whatever, every team needs one. The Jays don't have one.

Now, do I think they should overpay to get one? No, but the need is definitely there. I don't care if it is just 60 innings a season, if it is 60 unhittable/lights out innings, then it will give the club a big competitive boost. You can't just put Casey Janssen in that role and assume everything will be fine, and I don't expect AA to do that either.

Yeah, it's mainly the fact that relief aces are like hailstorms...they appear suddenly, make a huge impact, and are gone just as fast. We need a couple great relievers, certainly; we don't know that Heath Bell, he of the 3.77 xFIP playing in the NL West, will be such a piece in the AL East. We don't know that Henderson Alvarez or Joel Carreno won't be, as fire-balling youngsters have a rather remarkable track record of success stepping into bullpens.

The best option, IMO, is to let the market lead the way in the off-season; don't dive in with cash in hand on the first day, but look for deals with some upside. Perhaps Matt Capps (who'll almost certainly be non-tendered) is available for a 1 + options deal at $3-5m; roll the dice there. Perhaps Jonathan Broxton is available on the cheap as he tries to get healthy; commit a small amount of money and a roster spot there. Perhaps Mike Gonzalez and his suddenly-massive (SSSW) platoon splits could augur well for a rebirth as a LOOGY. Give a look to the young guys. Rather than target one potential relief ace and throw a boatload of money/assets their way, start with a group of ten or more pitchers who have the potential to be good relievers (or were in the past but lost their way), and cobble together a relief corps out of seven of their numbers.

For those teams that don't have Mariano Rivera, that's been the best model...hell, even New York's stellar bullpen (which has helped to keep them in the race all year) consists of an array of redemption stories (Luis Ayala, Boone Logan, Cory Wade and even Joba, to some extent), and young 'uns (David Robertson, Hector Noesi), with their big eighth-inning signing looking like garbage.

Isn't that what we kind of did this year? We brought in Francisco, Rauch, Dotel, Cordero, etc and it didn't work out.

I do agree that we don't need to overpay for a "closer". We don't want to make another BJ Ryan mistake.

[Schad]

Isn't that what we kind of did this year? We brought in Francisco, Rauch, Dotel, Cordero, etc and it didn't work out.

Indeed, it didn't. Neither have the attempts by several teams to buy a bullpen, though. Here's a great writeup by Dave Cameron in the off-season. The crux:

12 relievers were deemed worthy of long term deals as free agents. Half of them performed below replacement level and were a complete waste of money. Four of them were simply disappointments, ending up as semi-productive relievers making far too much money. One of them had a good first year, but still has to justify the decision with two years remaining on the deal. And the other is Mariano Rivera.

If you take Rivera out of the sample, as he’s just something totally different than the rest of these guys, the other 11 combined for +4.6 WAR over 30 player seasons. That’s an average of +0.15 WAR per year. It gets worse. K-Rod and Cordero, the other two closers in the sample, make up +4.5 of that +4.6 WAR. Yes, that means that the nine setup men who have signed deals for 3+ years since 2006 have combined for +0.1 WAR.

It's actually even worse than that suggests: those two closers who comprised 4.5 of the 4.6 non-Mo WAR were paid $82 million over 7 player seasons for less than 5 WAR.

I'm not saying that the method is guaranteed to succeed...rather, I'm pointing out the fact that it's no less likely to succeed than throwing a boatload of cash at free agent relievers, or trading major assets for them.

[DonVitoMan]

What ever happened to Carlsson?

[Michael Bradley]

I don't mind filling the bullpen with failed starters or reclamation projects. Generally those come cheap and with the proper scouting could become valuable members of the pen. My point was more about absolutely needing a bullpen ace. Not 7 guys who are good, but rather one guy who is great and 6 guys who are good. Whether you want to use that ace in the 7th, 8th, or 9th inning doesn't really matter to me, but chances are he would be used in the 9th because that is the way baseball works, I guess.

If the team thinks Carreno could be that guy long-term, then put him there. I would have preferred someone like McGowan, but I believe they advised him to keep starting for his health.

[BigLeagueChew]

What ever happened to Carlsson?

Arm surgery, done til next year.

[Schad]

Point being that signing a guy to be your bullpen ace doesn't make it particularly likely that he'll actually be your bullpen ace, even if he has a good track record. Here at the top 20 saves-earners from 2009, and what they did in 2010 and thus far this year:

Brian Fuentes - Wasn't great in 2009, but got a lot of saves. Very solid in 2010. Very mediocre in 2011...lost the closer's role in May.

Joe Nathan - Terrific 2009. Missed all of 2010. Somewhat shaky 2011; just regained his closer role a couple weeks ago.

Mariano Rivera - Is Mariano Rivera.

Heath Bell - Excellent throughout, but his strikeout rate has fallen off the table, and he could be primed for a bad go of it away from Petco.

Francisco Cordero - Great 2009. Shaky 2010. Great 2011.

Brian Wilson - Great 2009 and 2010. His peripherals this year are quite bad, though, and he could be in for a nasty comedown.

Jonathan Papelbon - Great 2009. A shaky 2010 that left many wondering whether the Red Sox would move him. A fantastic 2011, though with a less-than-stellar ERA.

David Aardsma - Great 2009. Solid 2010. Has missed the entirety of 2011 with injury.

Ryan Franklin - Fantastic 2009. Solid 2010. Utterly awful 2011...his career might be all but done.

Trevor Hoffman - Retired.

Fernando Rodney - Very mediocre 2009, but picked up a lot of saves. Just as mediocre in 2010, but lost his closer's role. Still just as mediocre, now as a middle reliever.

Jonathan Broxton - Stellar 2009. Middling-to-poor 2010. Awful 2011, now injured.

Huston Street - Solid all three years, though with some injury woes in 2010 and a demotion mixed in.

Francisco Rodriguez - Mediocre 2009. Great 2010. Inconsistent 2011.

Brad Lidge - Atrocious 2009. Great 2010. Has only pitched 2.2 innings in 2011.

Joakim Soria - Dominant 2009 and 2010. Thoroughly mediocre 2011.

Bobby Jenks - Solid 2009. Poor 2010. Atrocious 2011.

Rafael Soriano - Excellent 2009. Dominant 2010. Atrocious 2011.

Matt Capps - Terrible 2009. Great 2011. Middling 2011.

Andrew Bailey - Excellent...when healthy.



Saying that we need a relief ace is all well and good, but actually setting out to acquire one is an entirely different matter. How many of the players listed above performed in 2010 and 2011 at a higher level than our much-maligned Jason Frasor?

[Relentless88]

If you take Rivera out of the sample, as he’s just something totally different than the rest of these guys, the other 11 combined for +4.6 WAR over 30 player seasons. That’s an average of +0.15 WAR per year. It gets worse. K-Rod and Cordero, the other two closers in the sample, make up +4.5 of that +4.6 WAR. Yes, that means that the nine setup men who have signed deals for 3+ years since 2006 have combined for +0.1 WAR.

Wow, that's interesting. 9 relievers combining for +0.1 WAR.

Hopefully we'll find a gem in the next set of relievers AA brings in. It would be great to have at least one very dependable pitcher to have in the pen especially when we start to contend. The hard part is finding one for cheap.

Broxton is an interesting option. What happened to him? He was pretty dominant at one point and is still only 27 years old.

[Schad]

He lost the strike zone, which might be related to elbow troubles that he has been suffering from.

[BigLeagueChew]

Ryan Madson would be a good FA possiblity but Scott Boras is his agent making it close to impossible to signing him.

[CapeCrusader]

I would just try to sign him in the off season.

[Michael Bradley]

I'm not suggesting we go out and sign a bullpen ace. I'm saying you can't have seven "good" relievers and expect to have any competitive advantage over teams with strong pens and strong bullpen aces (like Rivera, Bard/Papelbon, etc). I don't want a bullpen with 7 Casey Janssen's or Jason Frasor's, as good as they have been this year. There has to be one guy who is head and shoulders above the rest of the pen, IMO.

Like I said, if AA thinks an internal option can fill that role, then that is fine with me. If he wants to sign a bunch of guys to one year deals + options to exploit the draft like he has the past two years, that's fine too, but he should have some sort of vision for a late inning stopper, whether it is an internal option or someone in free agency or trade. I think he had that idea with Francisco (even though I didn't like the trade), it just failed. That type of reasoning is fine.