Baseball Division Inequities

Sifu · Post #1 » by **Sifu** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 12:39 pm

I realize that this has been discussed to death, but a recent comment by Jason Fraser just accentuates how crazy this is.

An excerpt after he got traded:
Reliever Jason Frasor, acquired in a trade with Toronto on Wednesday, said he was ecstatic to join the White Sox and be in a pennant race.

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310729104

It's ridiculous that the Sox are in the thick of a pennant race, only 3 games behind, and the Jays are for all intents and purposes out of it and the Jays have a better record.

While I'm glad Frasor landed in a good situation, he went to a team that if they lose a game will have lost more games than won, and still have a very realistic shot at winning the division.

To put it another way, the average winning percentage for the AL East is greater than the individual winning percentages of any team in the AL Central.

Santoki · Post #2 » by **Santoki** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:45 pm

That's why they're looking at realignment.

rarefind · Post #3 » by **rarefind** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 4:50 pm

The most overlooked aspect of why realignment is needed is the amount of times teams such as the Rangers get to play teams like Seattle and Oakland. I am not overly convinced that the Rangers would have a much better record than the Jays if they had identical schedules.

Parataxis · Post #4 » by **Parataxis** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 6:28 pm

The other side of the coin, however, is that the AL-East set-up is great for the Jays from a bottom line perspective.

Fact is, the Dome is fuller when playing the Yankees or the Sox than when playing most other teams.

Now, if this was baseball circa the early 90s, it wouldn't make a difference - but right now more bums in seats means more money to spend on the team.

rarefind · Post #5 » by **rarefind** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 6:34 pm

Parataxis wrote:The other side of the coin, however, is that the AL-East set-up is great for the Jays from a bottom line perspective.

Fact is, the Dome is fuller when playing the Yankees or the Sox than when playing most other teams.

Now, if this was baseball circa the early 90s, it wouldn't make a difference - but right now more bums in seats means more money to spend on the team.

I've made this point before but for example, a day like today with a "contending" Jays team would put 35,000+ in the crowd today. So for a long term comparison, the Jays will make their money if they win regardless of divisional match ups with New York and Boston.

Homer Jay · Post #6 » by **Homer Jay** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 7:23 pm

I just think MLB views us as a big market club, and that it is not a fault of the revenue available here, but Rogers that is keeping the payroll artificially low. I don't think they will move us away from the Yankees/Red Sox at all. They probably view us as more able to compete with them than the Tigers or Indians ever could.

rarefind · Post #7 » by **rarefind** » Sat Jul 30, 2011 7:55 pm

Homer Jay wrote:I just think MLB views us as a big market club, and that it is not a fault of the revenue available here, but Rogers that is keeping the payroll artificially low. I don't think they will move us away from the Yankees/Red Sox at all. They probably view us as more able to compete with them than the Tigers or Indians ever could.

It doesn't really matter, the Jays will never spend as much as these two teams could. Especially the Yankees, no team can. What the MLB needs to do is simple, you either institute a salary cap/revenue sharing or concede Boston and New York a playoff spot which doesn't come at the expense of the other teams in the A.L. east which is what they'd be essentially doing by playoff expansion. The Jays are being almost penalized for playing in the East, despite making a little more coin from hosting games against these teams. The difficulty of the A.L. east is not a phenomenon or a result of a tough era it is simply the money. I get that the MLB makes the most money when NY and Boston do well, but the consequence of this is that it kills the integrity of the game.

How can a team such as a Kansas City ever compete? They can draft all the Montgomery's Hosmas' and Moustakas' they want they will never be able to retain them if they truly pan out - Tampa Bay says amen. By fixing the divisional breakdowns is a start, I have a serious problem with some teams payroll simply dwarfing the Yankees own. Here in Toronto is not bad but the only way to truly bring the fans back to the game is by evening the playing field (no pun intended). The Yankees and Red Sox will sell tickets regardless and you do have to believe that they would be forced to be run competently not with the philosophy of lets just throw more money at it. Mind you, it is New York that employs this ideology, I don't have a problem at all with what Boston has done. Theo Epstein is a fantastic G.M. in regards to how many players have come through their farm.

Imagine an NFL where teams could spend wildly if they had the money? Attendance would be abysmal in certain cities leading to relocation. The NFL does remarkably well due to not just their TV rights but the fanbase in most markets supporting their team due to a true belief that their team is in it until they are eliminated. By no means am I trying to compare the MLB to the NFL but one must assume that a similar system that exists in the NFL would be beneficial for Baseball.

Shimso · Post #8 » by **Shimso** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:33 pm

Sifu wrote:I realize that this has been discussed to death, but a recent comment by Jason Fraser just accentuates how crazy this is.

An excerpt after he got traded:
Reliever Jason Frasor, acquired in a trade with Toronto on Wednesday, said he was ecstatic to join the White Sox and be in a pennant race.

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310729104

It's ridiculous that the Sox are in the thick of a pennant race, only 3 games behind, and the Jays are for all intents and purposes out of it and the Jays have a better record.

While I'm glad Frasor landed in a good situation, he went to a team that if they lose a game will have lost more games than won, and still have a very realistic shot at winning the division.

To put it another way, the average winning percentage for the AL East is greater than the individual winning percentages of any team in the AL Central.

That is messed up. Its annoying to see Cleveland, with the same winning percentage as the Jays, just 2 games back of the division lead while the Jays are almost a dozen games back with no real chance and its only July.

rarefind · Post #9 » by **rarefind** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:41 pm

Shimso wrote:
Sifu wrote:I realize that this has been discussed to death, but a recent comment by Jason Fraser just accentuates how crazy this is.

An excerpt after he got traded:
Reliever Jason Frasor, acquired in a trade with Toronto on Wednesday, said he was ecstatic to join the White Sox and be in a pennant race.

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310729104

It's ridiculous that the Sox are in the thick of a pennant race, only 3 games behind, and the Jays are for all intents and purposes out of it and the Jays have a better record.

While I'm glad Frasor landed in a good situation, he went to a team that if they lose a game will have lost more games than won, and still have a very realistic shot at winning the division.

To put it another way, the average winning percentage for the AL East is greater than the individual winning percentages of any team in the AL Central.

That is messed up. Its annoying to see Cleveland, with the same winning percentage as the Jays, just 2 games back of the division lead while the Jays are almost a dozen games back with no real chance and its only July.

This PLUS the fact that the competition in the central is significantly weaker than the east. I wish someone would calculate a formula to figure out the "value" of a win in the a.l. east to compare to the likes of the indians and rangers.

Shimso · Post #10 » by **Shimso** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 8:52 pm

rarefind wrote:
Shimso wrote:
Sifu wrote:I realize that this has been discussed to death, but a recent comment by Jason Fraser just accentuates how crazy this is.

An excerpt after he got traded:
Reliever Jason Frasor, acquired in a trade with Toronto on Wednesday, said he was ecstatic to join the White Sox and be in a pennant race.

http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?gameId=310729104

It's ridiculous that the Sox are in the thick of a pennant race, only 3 games behind, and the Jays are for all intents and purposes out of it and the Jays have a better record.

While I'm glad Frasor landed in a good situation, he went to a team that if they lose a game will have lost more games than won, and still have a very realistic shot at winning the division.

To put it another way, the average winning percentage for the AL East is greater than the individual winning percentages of any team in the AL Central.

That is messed up. Its annoying to see Cleveland, with the same winning percentage as the Jays, just 2 games back of the division lead while the Jays are almost a dozen games back with no real chance and its only July.

This PLUS the fact that the competition in the central is significantly weaker than the east. I wish someone would calculate a formula to figure out the "value" of a win in the a.l. east to compare to the likes of the indians and rangers.

Yeah, the Jays have had the toughest schedule in the league
http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/rpi/_/sort/sos

adjusted for our record and difficulty, we're 8th in the league

PowerHouse · Post #11 » by **PowerHouse** » Sun Jul 31, 2011 9:15 pm

How would you guys like to see the Divisions lineup? Personally I'd like to see 2 Divison in the AL and 4 in the NL.

AL- East
Toronto
Boston
NY Yankees
Baltimore
Tampa Bay
Cleveland
Detroit

AL- West
LA Angels
Oakland
Texas
Seattle
Minnesota
White Sox
Kansas City

Playoffs: Division Winners + 3 Wild Card

NL- North East
Philly
Pittsburgh
Washington
NY Mets

NL- Pacific
San Diego
San Franscio
LA Dodgers
Arizona

NL- Central
Colorodo
St. Louis
Houston
Cubs

NL-
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
Florida
Atlanta

Playoffs: Division Winners + 1 Wild Card
__________________________________________________________________________________________
Playoff:
First Round - Best of 5
AL- WC3 vs WC2
NL- WC vs worst division winner

Second Round - best of 7 Doesn't matter if the teams are in the same division
AL-
1 vs WC3 or WC2
2 vs WC1

NL-
1 vs 4 or WC
2 vs 3

Pennant Series- best of 7

World Series- best of 7

___________________________________________________________________________________________

With the NL and AL having different style of game play, I don't think having a different numbers of Divisions in each league should be a problem.

Mak · Post #12 » by **Mak** » Wed Aug 3, 2011 3:05 am

http://espn.go.com/mlb/powerrankings

How are 2 teams (Pirates and Reds) in the worst division in MLB ranked better than a team with the same record in the best division in MLB? Am I crazy? why are they basing power rankings based on how many games out of the playoffs teams are?

Houston Astros lost 74 games and Red Sox and Yankees only lost 83 combined. Cubs have lost 65, more than Baltimore.

Weems · Post #13 » by **Weems** » Wed Aug 3, 2011 3:17 am

Hi, ESPN is really bad.

Sifu · Post #14 » by **Sifu** » Sun Aug 7, 2011 12:29 am

Mak wrote:http://espn.go.com/mlb/powerrankings

How are 2 teams (Pirates and Reds) in the worst division in MLB ranked better than a team with the same record in the best division in MLB? Am I crazy? why are they basing power rankings based on how many games out of the playoffs teams are?

Houston Astros lost 74 games and Red Sox and Yankees only lost 83 combined. Cubs have lost 65, more than Baltimore.

I agree, it is stupid and all based on perception. In the more quantitative based RPI grid, it has the Jays ranked as #5! Pirates and Reds are ranked where they should be at 22 and 19th respectively.

augustine · Post #15 » by **augustine** » Sun Aug 7, 2011 1:20 pm

To bolster the points made here, the Jays have the highest SOS rating of any team in the major leagues, with their opponents having an average winning percentage of .513. Obvoiusly, they are playing the best teams on a regular basis.

Homer Jay · Post #16 » by **Homer Jay** » Sun Aug 7, 2011 7:17 pm

I remember back when even Charles Barkley came out and said the Jays are getting hosed, a baseball stats guy I followed, showed that the Jays win percentage against all the other teams in the AL except the Sox/Yanks/Rays was higher than the overall win percentage of any other AL team. Basically it very readily pointed out that if the Jays were in the Central or West they would easily be first in their division.

Sifu · Post #17 » by **Sifu** » Mon Aug 8, 2011 1:47 am

Homer Jay wrote:I remember back when even Charles Barkley came out and said the Jays are getting hosed, a baseball stats guy I followed, showed that the Jays win percentage against all the other teams in the AL except the Sox/Yanks/Rays was higher than the overall win percentage of any other AL team. Basically it very readily pointed out that if the Jays were in the Central or West they would easily be first in their division.

A quick look at the Jays record this year shows that they have a 37-30 record when removing AL East games (including those vs. Baltimore). This equates to about a .552 win percentage and would be good enough to lead the AL Central and be in a virtual tie in the AL West.

Take away the games against the NL also, and the Jays are 29-20, a 0.592 record. Good enough to be the 4th best record in all of baseball (but incidentally still not enough to win the division or wildcard in the AL East).

Admittedly, removing all AL East games is a false analysis since teams in the Central and West have to play the Yankees, Bosox and Rays too, but it highlights just how slanted the current system is.

To put it mildly, if the Jays were winning at a 60% clip, they would be the 4th best team in baseball but still not good enough to get into the postseason...

Skin Blues · Post #18 » by **Skin Blues** » Mon Aug 8, 2011 2:11 am

You can't just remove all the games against the AL East and say the Jays are the best. The other teams in the AL face the Yankees and Red Sox, too.

Homer Jay · Post #19 » by **Homer Jay** » Mon Aug 8, 2011 2:29 am

Yeah it wasn't really hard analysis, just a generalization to prove a point. Incidentally the Orioles have it even worse, they used to be at something like .532 against the rest of the AL, but less than .333 vs. the East. The Jays could win 88 games this year and still be 10 games out of the playoffs, but breaking it down it is quite possible (thou unlikely) a team will win the NL or AL central with less than a .500 percentage. Meaning another team in their division could win 70-71 games (a pretty poor season) and still be closer to the playoffs than the Jays.

I hope the expanded playoffs are coming soon. Six and Six like the NFL makes sense. Even though for the AL, it could mean all three wildcards could be from the AL East!