OT: Reds will consider Votto trade this winter

[Schad]

To be considered among the elite leadoff hitters in the game...I think Escobar would have to make more of an impact on the basepaths...

(he's 3 for 5 in stolen base attempts this season)

No. Stolen bases is a very tiny part of what makes for a good lead-off hitter. And when you have Jose Bautista hitting third, you're better off not running at all.

Despite his "elite" OBP...he's on pace to finish the year with less than 100 runs scored

Runs scored is a terrible way to view a lead-off man, as 90% of it is out of their hands.

[Evermore]

To be considered among the elite leadoff hitters in the game...I think Escobar would have to make more of an impact on the basepaths...

(he's 3 for 5 in stolen base attempts this season)

No. Stolen bases is a very tiny part of what makes for a good lead-off hitter. And when you have Jose Bautista hitting third, you're better off not running at all.

Despite his "elite" OBP...he's on pace to finish the year with less than 100 runs scored

Runs scored is a terrible way to view a lead-off man, as 90% of it is out of their hands.

I agree completely that stolen bases are only a small part of it...and Escobar wouldn't want to run into an out with Bautista batting behind him anyway...

Having said that...

Bautista is batting behind him

You would think: elite leadoff man + Jose Bautista = 100+ runs easy


It's the THREAT of the stolen base that is so valuable...as it forces the pitcher to hurl more fastballs

Escobar doesn't provide that...which is why I don't consider him among the elite


Escobar is very solid...and the OBP has certainly been a pleasant surprise this season...

But I just don't think he's as complete a leadoff hitter as some of the other guys

[damadmonk]

I would like to see the Jays offer some combination of;

Snider, Cooper, Brad Mills, Adam Loewen, Travis d’Arnaud, Kyle Drabek


We have a excess of prospects in the outfield, pitching, and catching. If a trade makes us better for the upcoming years, I have no trouble making the deal.

I'm just not sure if Votto is the best option.

I don't see hitting as our focus in getting to the elite level. The development of Thames, Rasmus, Lawrie, and JP will improve more than enough to get there.

I would like to see an elite starter and elite closer over an elite hitter at this point.

Clayton Kershaw would be fantastic on this team.

[Schad]

You would think: elite leadoff man + Jose Bautista = 100+ runs easy

Nope. With runs scored dropping around baseball, 100 runs is actually a very high threshold. Seven players accomplished it last year in the AL; three of them were pure power hitters (it's easier to reach 100 runs if you hit 40-50 home runs). It's a rather variable stat overall, such that a year-to-year swing of +/- 20 isn't really uncommon, even if the player's production doesn't change.

It's the THREAT of the stolen base that is so valuable...as it forces the pitcher to hurl more fastballs

Escobar doesn't provide that...which is why I don't consider him among the elite

Pitchers shouldn't be throwing more fastballs to prevent an extra base from being taken with notorious fastball hitters behind our lead-off guy. I can't imagine that anyone would be that stupid.

Escobar is very solid...and the OBP has certainly been a pleasant surprise this season...

But I just don't think he's as complete a leadoff hitter as some of the other guys

There isn't one better in the AL.

[Evermore]

You would think: elite leadoff man + Jose Bautista = 100+ runs easy

Nope. With runs scored dropping around baseball, 100 runs is actually a very high threshold. Seven players accomplished it last year in the AL; three of them were pure power hitters (it's easier to reach 100 runs if you hit 40-50 home runs). It's a rather variable stat overall, such that a year-to-year swing of +/- 20 isn't really uncommon, even if the player's production doesn't change.

It's the THREAT of the stolen base that is so valuable...as it forces the pitcher to hurl more fastballs

Escobar doesn't provide that...which is why I don't consider him among the elite

Pitchers shouldn't be throwing more fastballs to prevent an extra base from being taken with notorious fastball hitters behind our lead-off guy. I can't imagine that anyone would be that stupid.

Escobar is very solid...and the OBP has certainly been a pleasant surprise this season...

But I just don't think he's as complete a leadoff hitter as some of the other guys

There isn't one better in the AL.

There isn't one better?


Watch a Red Sox game sometime...

[Strav]

There isn't one better?

Watch a Red Sox game sometime...

Scutaro / Lowrie - really?

[RaptorKenny]

There isn't one better?

Watch a Red Sox game sometime...

Scutaro / Lowrie - really?

Ellsbury
Having said that, I believe Escobar/Gordon are 2a/2b in the AL

[Skin Blues]

In Ellsbury's case, those 29 SBs don't help much with the 9 CS. He's arguably not even above the break-even point at 76%. In fact, his baserunning is below replacement level, which probably takes some sheen off of the fact that he might be the best leadoff hitter in the league.

Yunel is a top tier hitter at a premium position, one at which he leads the league in WAR. The point was that he's a better hitter than Devon White and Joe Carter (not sure if people remember how this ridiculous semantics argument started) which by wOBA is pretty much a dead heat compared to 1993 stats. I think we can all agree that our top 5 will be outstanding if we're able to get Joey Votto. It appears that Brett Lawrie is ready to join the elite hitters at 3B as well, as long as he doesn't run into trouble with breaking balls.

[Lateral Quicks]

You may or may not think Escobar is an elite hitter, but surely we can agree he is a better leadoff hitter then Devon White (who I liked a lot, but let's be objective here). There's a gaping difference in OBP between them. The only thing Devo had over Escobar was the stolen bases. Defensively they were both very good for their respective positions.

It's amazing to look back at Joe Carter's stats. and see just how mediocre they were. Lots of RBIs of course, but that was due to the juggernaut to which he belonged. Career OPS of .771, and in the championship years he barely cleared .800 OPS. Wow. Again, I liked the player, but he certainly doesn't compare favourably to Votto or Bautista.

[Lateral Quicks]

BTW, if Votto can be had for a package centering around Lind, 1-2 blue-chip prospects, and 1-2 very good prospects, I think AA should do it.


Something like:

Lind + Drabek + Marisnick + MgGuire
OR
Lind + Gose + Alvarez + Knecht

Anything more I'd say no, and a priority for me would be keeping d'Arnaud. He could be an absolute beast of a two-way player, which is extremely valuable at catcher.

[Strav]

There isn't one better?

Watch a Red Sox game sometime...

Scutaro / Lowrie - really?

Ellsbury
Having said that, I believe Escobar/Gordon are 2a/2b in the AL

but the original discussion aside from Votto, was talking about SS's.

[Evermore]

In Ellsbury's case, those 29 SBs don't help much with the 9 CS. He's arguably not even above the break-even point at 76%. In fact, his baserunning is below replacement level, which probably takes some sheen off of the fact that he might be the best leadoff hitter in the league.

Yunel is a top tier hitter at a premium position, one at which he leads the league in WAR. The point was that he's a better hitter than Devon White and Joe Carter (not sure if people remember how this ridiculous semantics argument started) which by wOBA is pretty much a dead heat compared to 1993 stats. I think we can all agree that our top 5 will be outstanding if we're able to get Joey Votto. It appears that Brett Lawrie is ready to join the elite hitters at 3B as well, as long as he doesn't run into trouble with breaking balls.

The position Escobar plays defensively...really has no place in the discussion over whether or not he's an "elite" leadoff hitter


As for White vs Escobar...I'd say White had more power too

Though I'm not arguing White is better...

[Skin Blues]

Yeah I was way off by merely mentioning Escobar's position, considering this is a thread about the non-existent acquisition of Joey Votto. How dare I stray so far off topic

[Schad]

There isn't one better?


Watch a Red Sox game sometime...

Ellsbury is an odd case, given his sudden development of power and mediocre walk rate. On most other teams, he wouldn't be leading off; however, the Red Sox have a rather unusual lineup, which consists of five players with power + high OBP, and several players who shouldn't be anywhere near the top of an order. Net result is that Boston has three hitters whose numbers scream 3rd hitter filling the 1st, 2nd and 5th spots, simply because they have an embarrassment of riches. Thus you have Ellsbury and his nearly 200 ISO (and fifth-best OBP on the team) hitting lead-off.

[There There]

There isn't one better?


Watch a Red Sox game sometime...

Ellsbury is an odd case, given his sudden development of power

Which reminds me... Is it a man in a white shirt or steroids ?

And I presume we can expect ESPN to begin beating that dead **** horse to death any minute now ?

[Schad]

There isn't one better?


Watch a Red Sox game sometime...

Ellsbury is an odd case, given his sudden development of power

Which reminds me... Is it a man in a white shirt or steroids ?

And I presume we can expect ESPN to begin beating that dead **** horse to death any minute now ?

Doesn't work that way. When a Red Sox player who had 20 HRs in 1500+ plate appearances then hits 20 more in his next 540, it's perfectly normal, because being part of that great rivalry breeds such things. Same with a center fielder who has always had good power, but suddenly drives that up several notches to the point where he could hit 45. Pressure makes diamonds and all that.




(I don't think that Ellsbury or Granderson are 'roiding, it's just the ridiculous double-standard)

[There There]

(I don't think that Ellsbury or Granderson are 'roiding, it's just the ridiculous double-standard)

Agreed, on both counts.

Not that I'm eagerly wishing anybody to be the focus of asinine witch hunts... Naw, **** that, after the **** that Bautista has had to go through for the past 12-14 months, I would enjoy watching the two of them have their names and reputations dragged through the mud

edit... Not to mention Granderson's new found ability to all of a sudden mash the **** out of LH pitchers

[Homer Jay]

(I don't think that Ellsbury or Granderson are 'roiding, it's just the ridiculous double-standard)

Agreed, on both counts.

Not that I'm eagerly wishing anybody to be the focus of asinine witch hunts... Naw, **** that, after the **** that Bautista has had to go through for the past 12-14 months, I would enjoy watching the two of them have their names and reputations dragged through the mud

edit... Not to mention Granderson's new found ability to all of a sudden mash the **** out of LH pitchers

Probably the same thing that helped Bautista... better coaching. But for some reason that never seems to be brought up in MLB. Being a pitching/hitting coach is pretty thankless work.

[Weems]

The position Escobar plays defensively...really has no place in the discussion over whether or not he's an "elite" leadoff hitter

Can it not mean he is plainly an "elite" hitter wherever he is in the line up? If he produces at an elite level in comparison to shortstops league-wide, that's elite. He has great on base and power skills for the leadoff position, too, and that's production even if he doesn't steal bases like a typical leadoff guy might (also consider caught stealings and how they negatively affect productivity; you mentioned Ellsbury who has 11 CS to 31 SB).