DonVitoMan wrote:just curious but is there an extra wild card spot this year i am not sure?
I had high hopes it would be added, but I really doubt it at this point. Last I heard was optimism from Selig at the end of January, but no news for another month is bad news for an extra WC this year. I think this year's playoff schedule is too tight to shoehorn them in. WS start date won't be changed and because a WC can involve lots of travel, there's no fair way to fit it in. Most of that came from a Rosenthal piece I read a while back.
If there is no WC slot added, then we're probably looking at meaningless September ball again, which I can't say I'm looking forward to, but 95 win territory is a much steeper climb than 90ish.
With an extra WC I'd be disappointed if we didn't have meaningful games in August at least, something that we haven't had in a very long time. My gut says 5th is 91-92 wins and the Jays moderate upside is 86-88. 90 isn't impossible, but I don't see 20 games over .500 being their likeliest outcome. As such by mid-September they'd be all but mathematically eliminated and I'd call that a gigantic improvement on the last 10-15 years where that was basically true at the All-Star break. Let me have some weeks at the end of the summer where the Jays are within striking distance and I can make up scenarios where they pull even and I'll be a happy camper.
But without the extra WC, there are just too many obstacles to realistically think this team is going to challenge 'til the end of the year. It's not impossible, in fact it's more likely than I can remember it being going into spring training, but if it's playoff contention or bust with 4 playoffs spots then my guess is you're likely to be disappointed by this season 'cause I just don't see them announcing a 5th WC spot this late in the calendar.