ESPN: 2 Jays Among 7 Picked to Breakout in 2012

Champ Kind · Post #1 » by **Champ Kind** » Wed Feb 22, 2012 4:28 pm

Hey Guys,

Saw this article this morning, and was very impressed.

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/the-gms ... st?id=3462

Its insider, so I am not sure if I am able to post it, but Jim Bowden, former GM picked 7 players to have breakout seasons, and 2 were Jays!

The Jays selected;

Colby Rasmus
Henderson Alverez

I wasn't very sold on Rasmus last year, I am really hoping that he shows up this season.

I love that Alvarez was picked up. I think he could be a huge part of our rotation.

I thought Lawire might make the list, but I guess he already has 'broken out'

Myth111 · Post #2 » by **Myth111** » Wed Feb 22, 2012 5:00 pm

4. Colby Rasmus, CF
The Cardinals might have won a World Series after trading Rasmus to the Blue Jays last summer, but Toronto will celebrate its part of the trade after Rasmus breaks out this season. He is a five-tool player with .900 OPS potential, but he underperformed in 2011 while dealing with a wrist injury, conflicts with former manager Tony La Russa, and the pressure of being the Cardinals’ next star. The change of scenery should jump start his career. He has a clean, simple swing, and when he makes contact he tends to square up the ball cleanly. He also has above-average bat speed and terrific pitch recognition, and he is poised to become a star north of the border.

6. Henderson Alvarez, RHP
Alvarez quickly flew past Kyle Drabek and Dustin McGowan on Blue Jays manager John Farrell’s depth chart for the starting rotation after blowing through the Double-A Eastern League last year with an 8-4 record, 2.86 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. After being promoted to the Blue Jays, he continued his success with a 3.53 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 10 starts. Alvarez’s quick ascent to the major leagues had mostly to do with his ability to pound the strike zone and allowing his stuff to take over. Last season was the first time the 21-year-old’s results matched his potential. The velocity on his sinking fastball reached the mid- to high 90s, and coupled with his above-average changeup and developing slider, the Blue Jays have a possible future top-of-the-rotation starter.

s e n s i · Post #3 » by **s e n s i** » Wed Feb 22, 2012 5:27 pm

gregg zaun on PTS yesterday absolutely WROTE OFF rasmus in the most vehement way possible...solely because "he dogged a couple fly balls" last season...**** idiot...

Al_Oliver · Post #4 » by **Al_Oliver** » Wed Feb 22, 2012 5:37 pm

pretty tired of Zaun... used to be a refreshing opinion, now it's just annoying. the further away from playing he gets, the less he knows

Myth111 · Post #5 » by **Myth111** » Wed Feb 22, 2012 6:37 pm

I stopped caring what Zaun says after he refused to acknowledge EE was safe at home in Boston and then at the very end saying that he was safe but he deserved to be called out because Varitek did a good job. WTH does that even mean? He was safe and that is all that matters.

satyr9 · Post #6 » by **satyr9** » Wed Feb 22, 2012 6:48 pm

To me Zaun is intentionally trying to turn himself into a Glen Healy type for Toronto. Now, why he would try to assume that role is beyond me, but since Healy still has a job I guess there's some justification.

As for Rasmus, I think he may be one of the hardest guys to predict this year. Ridiculous talent, but so profoundly lost by the end of last season I don't think there's any way to say whether he's going to be able to re-group. I've got my fingers crossed though 'cause that would be one hell of a coup.

Alvarez will be good eventually, of that I'm fairly confident. But that 3rd pitch is pretty damn important and I actually think he may have a bit of a fall back year while he consolidates some of the gains he made last year and tries to incorporate the slider this year.

tecumseh18 · Post #7 » by **tecumseh18** » Wed Feb 22, 2012 8:09 pm

Champ Kind wrote:I thought Lawire might make the list, but I guess he already has 'broken out'

Yeah, before I clicked the link I had guessed Lawrie and Santos. It's nice to think that the Jays have at least four such players with real potential, without even counting the now-strong minor league system.

MikeM · Post #8 » by **MikeM** » Wed Feb 22, 2012 9:43 pm

Alvarez will be a beast, I know it. So underrated.

flatjacket1 · Post #9 » by **flatjacket1** » Wed Feb 22, 2012 11:44 pm

MikeM wrote:Alvarez will be a beast, I know it. So underrated.

I agree. If you can pitch with only 2 pitches and have the 2nd or 3rd best season (1/3rd of a season anyways) in the pitching staff, adding a 3rd would be gravy.

satyr9 · Post #10 » by **satyr9** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:18 pm

flatjacket1 wrote:
MikeM wrote:Alvarez will be a beast, I know it. So underrated.

I agree. If you can pitch with only 2 pitches and have the 2nd or 3rd best season (1/3rd of a season anyways) in the pitching staff, adding a 3rd would be gravy.

But 10 starts is a lot different than continued perennial success. MLB hitters make too many adjustments for there to be that many successful two pitch starters. Sure, there will always be a few exceptions and maybe Alvarez is one of them, but I've read a lot of discussion this summer about Morrow and how one of the contributing problems to his struggles may be his over-reliance on two pitches, especially with runners on base. And that's just a single example, it's hardly the only one.

Basically, 3+ real mlb quality pitches is the recipe for almost any starter no matter how good their first two offerings are and if Alvarez has to go through a few bumps to get a 3rd pitch figured out, I'm all for it. The only exception I have is sometimes 1 fastball is far closer to multiple pitches. If you can move your fastball around and vary how it breaks, even if it's not a pure cutter/2-seamer/sinker you can use it and keep hitters guessing without extra pitches.

LBJSeizedMyID · Post #11 » by **LBJSeizedMyID** » Thu Feb 23, 2012 1:28 pm

He really needs that changeup, otherwise, people will catch up to that fastball, even if it has sink. If he relies too much on that slider, he's just a TJ surgery waiting to happen.

flatjacket1 · Post #12 » by **flatjacket1** » Fri Feb 24, 2012 12:38 am

LBJSeizedMyID wrote:He really needs that changeup, otherwise, people will catch up to that fastball, even if it has sink. If he relies too much on that slider, he's just a TJ surgery waiting to happen.

His change up is arguably his best pitch [was nearly 4x more effective than his FB according to fangraphs] (was his only plus pitch when he first started in the minor leagues) and you can't not throw sliders because of fear of TJ. Santos throws a lot of sliders and we have him for a long time so if sliders were that much of a TJ waiting to happen we wouldn't have traded for Santos who is under contract long term.

Last year Alvarez threw around 9.9% sliders which is nowhere near the 23.1% sliders Santos throws. Alvarez will likely never has a plus slider so likely it won't be mixed in much, but a recent study by BBB found that the slider is the of the hardest pitche to hit. (Statistically, not from some stupid interview or something).

LBJSeizedMyID · Post #13 » by **LBJSeizedMyID** » Fri Feb 24, 2012 11:44 am

I stand corrected, I was going off the top of my head. I thought it was the changeup he was working on, but it's the slider. Either way he needs to develop it more to take another step forward.

flatjacket1 · Post #14 » by **flatjacket1** » Fri Feb 24, 2012 6:58 pm

LBJSeizedMyID wrote:I stand corrected, I was going off the top of my head. I thought it was the changeup he was working on, but it's the slider. Either way he needs to develop it more to take another step forward.

I agree that he needs to develop a 3rd pitch in order to be dominate but he managed just fine with only 2 pitches which tells me those are 2 darn good pitches.

I expect him to improve his slider this year, which is a very hard pitch to hit.