What kind of #s to expect from Joey Bats this year?

[flatjacket1]

.275/.390/.560 with 30 HR

[Schad]

.275/.390/.560 with 30 HR

Heh, you either have him getting quite close to the all-time record in doubles, or missing a number of games.

[CrymeTime]

160 Games

.307 AVG
.468 OBP

141 BB
23 IBB
11 HBP

37 HR
109 RBI
11 SB

31 2B
4 3B

[kavan]

I say he hits just under 300, gets as many walks as he did last year hits over 40hr because he can and will over 120rbi's and I see that not happening only if the guys infront and behind of him can not pull their own weight. I dont expect a drop off just hope he stays healthy would like to see a bunch of outfield assists from him not to mention some stolen bases =)

[flatjacket1]

.275/.390/.560 with 30 HR

Heh, you either have him getting quite close to the all-time record in doubles, or missing a number of games.

30 HR, 48 doubles and 0 triples rings in at .586 slugging so figure 30 HR, 38 doubles and 3 triples is around .560?

[Schad]

Yeah, but Cabrera had a .344 batting average...thus, his isolated power was 'just' .242.

You have Bautista at an iso of .285; if he had the same number of at-bats as Cabrera (572), using your batting average and XBHs he'd only manage a slugging percentage of .509, with an iso of .234.

[LittleOzzy]

For those who feel his numbers will go down, what do you think will be the biggest factor for the drop?

Age? Injury? Better scouting by other teams?

[flatjacket1]

For those who feel his numbers will go down, what do you think will be the biggest factor for the drop?

Age? Injury? Better scouting by other teams?

Age and I don't really believe that he is a 8 WAR player.

[flatjacket1]

Yeah, but Cabrera had a .344 batting average...thus, his isolated power was 'just' .242.

You have Bautista at an iso of .285; if he had the same number of at-bats as Cabrera (572), using your batting average and XBHs he'd only manage a slugging percentage of .509, with an iso of .234.

Still its not like Bautista needs 67 doubles to reach a slugging percentage of .560. If it makes you feel better I can change my prediction to .275/.390/.520, but only after you check every other persons post for statistical accuracy.

[Schad]

Still its not like Bautista needs 67 doubles to reach a slugging percentage of .560.

Using Cabrera's AB benchmark, a .275 average, 30 HR and 3 triples, 67 doubles would fall just short, actually. 320 total bases in 572 at-bats = .559 slugging percentage.

If it makes you feel better I can change my prediction to .275/.390/.520, but only after you check every other persons post for statistical accuracy.

Not attacking you, just one of those situations where what looks like a perfectly achievable slash line when looking at any of the three elements happens to be a little less achievable when put together.

[Michael Bradley]

The only area I can see Bautista drop-off (maybe not this season but eventually) is batting average. I think the power and walks are clearly for real based on the last two seasons. If he can maintain a BA of around .270-.280, then we will all be happy with his numbers. If it is over .300 again, then maybe he finally wins the MVP.

[tecumseh18]

Hmm, is his wife pregnant again? They really should wait a full year before conceiving another kid.

1.000/1.000/4.000. 600 BB, 125 HR. It's gonna get pretty boring, but the first couple weeks are going to be fricking amazing.

So basically the same start as last year. But I think again around August, he'll start reaching for those pitches just to create some excitement.

I've gotta say the OPS has to be at least 1.000. HAS to be. He has to get 40 HR and 100 RBI. He has to get back to taking the walks, and hopefully won't feel responsible for all the offence. So working backwards, I'll say :

290/430/570

At least.

[flatjacket1]

Not attacking you, just one of those situations where what looks like a perfectly achievable slash line when looking at any of the three elements happens to be a little less achievable when put together.

Fair enough. I just didn't put much thought and detail into it.

[Parataxis]

I for one, think with his patience at the plate (and with decent protection) he's going to be hitting over 300; call it .308. And an OPS that starts with a 1.

And lets say... 47 HRs.