Its going to suck seeing JPA leave

[Leolovinliberal]

Why do you assume that his numbers will remain static and not improve? He was a rookie last year.

Is he not a candidate to be our long term DH?

Then we've got our back up catcher

Keeping him around as a DH would be dumb. You'd be able to get a good return for a catcher with his power and his age.

Your post appears to contradict itself. If his #'s are so good, why not just switch him to dh? Who are the Jays gonna get, and equally important, who are they going to have to give up, to play there that would put up comparable #'s at his age? I just don't understand this fatalistic JPA, D'Arnaud either/or mentality. They're both keepers and both good enough to start and be great contributors to the team. This team has plenty of problems, no need to create one where it doesn't exist.

As a catcher, his fWAR was 0.9 fWAR. If he DH'ed and put up the same numbers, his fWAR would be around -1.6 fWAR or the worst DH in the game by about 1.6 fWAR. (That's like a win and a half off our win total, or around 3 wins off our win total you include the cost of taking Edwin, a 1.5 fWAR DH off his post and replacing him with a below replacement level player.

Basically, if Edwin played catcher his fWAR would be around 4 fWAR but since he plays DH, its -1.5 rather than +1 for catcher which is a difference of 2.5. The reason for position adjustments is simple. A catcher who hits .300/.450/.580 is worth a heck of a lot more than a 1B who hits .300/.450/.580. So if your catcher can barely bat at his own position, moving him to DH or 1B would cost him a lot when his fWAR/rWAR is being calculated.

Basically, making JPA a catcher is the worst idea ever. If we trade him as a catcher he hold some value, while if we move him to DH he may be one of the worst players in the league. How many DH's put up a sub .300 OBP?

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.p ... ulate_war/

^ Here is a link which explains all of this positional adjustment stuff.[/quote]

[Modern_epic]

He would have to improve by over 100 points in OPS to be a decent DH. It's not impossible, but it's pretty damn unlikely.

But even if he did - a catcher who can hit that well is worth 2.5 wins more than a DH! Someone will trade you a front end starter for that guy, and you can sign Carlos Lee for about $10 million to hit just as well. It's just not a good use of your resources to have someone who can play catcher play either 1B or DH.

[flatjacket1]

Why do you assume that his numbers will remain static and not improve? He was a rookie last year.

See heres the thing - Although 25 years of age may seem young, it is typically the end of a defensive prime and smack dab in the middle of offensive prime.

Check out some standard baseball aging curves:


As you can see combined WAR peaks at around age 25-26. It is very rare to see great improvement at this age. That is the whole logic behind trading for Lawrie. He was 20 in AA and 21 in AAA/MLB, which means he isn't even close to his prime. This is why Lawrie cost us our ace, Marcum.

Age means so much is baseball that there have been studies which concluded that players birthdays being in August means they are competing against players older than them their whole lives, and they graduate HS at age 17. These players are highly sought after, as many of the superstars today (A-Rod, Pablo Sandoval, and a past reference: Babe Ruth) fit the mold.

Since 1950, a baby born in the United States in August has had a 50 percent to 60 percent better chance of making the big leagues than a baby born in July.

Read more: http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sp ... ummer.html

In baseball, everything in relevant to age.

[Avp115]

Would it really be the worst thing in the world if he played backup or he and D'Arnaud just split the role?

[flatjacket1]

Would it really be the worst thing in the world if he played backup or he and D'Arnaud just split the role?

Yes. That's like splitting time between Lawrie (uber prospect) and Jason Nix.

[Bigdaddy1980]

The Diamondbacks would have interest in catcher J.P. Arencibia if the Blue Jays made him available. Arencibia isn’t going anywhere just yet, but top catching prospect Travis d'Arnaud could force the Blue Jays to make some difficult decisions within the year.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/03/rosenthal-on-braves-blue-jays-lannan-gonzalez.html

What could we reasonably expect to get in return from Arizona?

[silverhill27]

If you look at JP's stats from his first year in Vegas, they look awfully similarly the stats he put up last year in Toronto. Let's hope he shows a similar learning curve.

Another point, there is a luxury of keeping both catchers considering the fragility of the players at the position. If I recall, hasn't d'Arnaud had back issues in the past. While Arencibia certainly at this stage of the game can not be a full time DH, there's no reason why he can't be in a platoon situation with Thames at DH next year and at the same time catch 2-3 games a week.

[flatjacket1]

If you look at JP's stats from his first year in Vegas, they look awfully similarly the stats he put up last year in Toronto. Let's hope he shows a similar learning curve.

Another point, there is a luxury of keeping both catchers considering the fragility of the players at the position. If I recall, hasn't d'Arnaud had back issues in the past. While Arencibia certainly at this stage of the game can not be a full time DH, there's no reason why he can't be in a platoon situation with Thames at DH next year and at the same time catch 2-3 games a week.

If you can't hit .300 in Vegas you mind as well retire. The league is so bad for prospects because they never walk, because they don't have to. If you make contact it almost always falls in for a hit. Its a mixture of the elevation and the warm air.

Hech for example, will hit .300 this year. That doesn't mean didly about his progress. a .300 hitter going from Vegas to NEW HAMPSIRE (AA) will hit only .280 according to a minor league equivalency calculator with park factors.

If that same .300 hitter from Vegas was called up to Toronto, his average would go down to .240 according to the equivalency calculator, mainly based on park factors.

The one thing Jays fans don't realize at all is how stupid Las Vegas is and how bad it is for prospects development. People get all excited about non hitting prospects "finding the groove" but wonder why they bust at the MLB level. Peripherals are what matters. If Hech hits .300 with say a 10% walk rate I say call the kid up. If Hech hits .340 with a 3% walk rate he won't survive. Obviously several other stats go into what makes up his peripherals but that's one reason they kept Lawrie in AAA for so long last season, even though he mashed.

My main point is if you compare D'Arnaud and JPA's AA stats (they were the same age to start the season), D'Arnaud absolutely dominated JPA like nothing else. JPA only posted an OBP of .302 in AA, while D'Arnaud posted an OBP of .371. Even his OPS was only .798 compared to .914 of D'Arnaud. My point is that it isn't even close. There also were always questions about whether or not JPA could defend well enough to stay behind the plate and D'Arnaud has always been known as a plus defender.

The difference between the two is night and day, even in present day D'Arnaud would likely have the better season. There is a reason this kid is a top 100 prospect on all list and JPA never broke the list.

I'm not saying trade him now but there will come a time where we need to trade him. Lets go under the absurd assumption that D'Arnaud is a bust and only hits .230 with .300 OBP. Let him catch a full season then we have the same problem with Carlos Perez nipping at his heels. We are so stacked at that position our only problem is going to be finding the most talented one.