What "ifs" have to break Jays way for playoffs?

[mikero]

The bullpen (Santos, Oliver, Cordero) and offense (Lawrie, Rasmus, Thames, Johnson) are both clearly upgraded from last year. It will be the rotation that determines how far this team goes. And of course, the biggest "if" is Morrow.

[Al_Oliver]

The bullpen (Santos, Oliver, Cordero) and offense (Lawrie, Rasmus, Thames, Johnson) are both clearly upgraded from last year. It will be the rotation that determines how far this team goes. And of course, the biggest "if" is Morrow.

really? I still think our 4th and 5th starters are the biggest "ifs"

[Strav]

for me it only comes down to a couple of things happening:

1. will the real Morrow please stand up?
2. the insistence on placing Lind at clean up - Lind has to produce as a true clean up hitter would

Everything else is just dandy on this team.

[Skin Blues]

If the rest of the AL East start using Russian air planes for team travel, we'll have a good chance at winning the division.

[Schad]

Primarily, two of the current five contenders from the AL East and West -- the Yankees, Sox, Rays, Angels and Rangers -- need to be quite a bit worse than expected. Last year, it would have taken 90 games to get a one-game playoff for the one-game playoff...that could be even higher this year. Going from a team that was outscored by 18 runs last year to one that wins 90+ games ain't all that easy, especially in the East.

Personally, I'll be fine with a run this year that keeps us competitive through the end of August, and leaves us 4-5 games out of the playoffs when all is said and done. It'd send a pretty clear signal that the team is one or two moves away.

[satyr9]

Primarily, two of the current five contenders from the AL East and West -- the Yankees, Sox, Rays, Angels and Rangers -- need to be quite a bit worse than expected. Last year, it would have taken 90 games to get a one-game playoff for the one-game playoff...that could be even higher this year. Going from a team that was outscored by 18 runs last year to one that wins 90+ games ain't all that easy, especially in the East.

Personally, I'll be fine with a run this year that keeps us competitive through the end of August, and leaves us 4-5 games out of the playoffs when all is said and done. It'd send a pretty clear signal that the team is one or two moves away.

I have roughly the same bar for happiness for the season as you do. Give me a competitive fun August and I'll be happy (at least I say that now, not sure sure I'll be able to stick to it depending on how close things are in August).

However, I think I'm a little more bullish on the chances for more though. IMO when it's 5 teams you're chasing it's far more likely at least one will do the work for you (meaning they'll underperform) and just the idea that it might be about catching 1 of 4 teams instead of 2 of 3 gives me more hope than I probably should have. So while the common refrain about luck is still the key to everything for the Jays this year, IMO what we're asking of chance is far closer to being within the range of possibility.

I do wonder about the number of games to get there though. Part of me, the optimist, thinks the extra good teams lower the bar as they grind each other down more. However, the other part of me thinks the bar is going to jump significantly because there are so obviously two tiers in the AL and high picks and the money you're allowed to sign them with may drive the non-contenders to more tanking than we usually see in baseball. I hope the pessimist in me is wrong, but I see quite a few warning signs that could push the top 5-7 teams into a gigantic split with the bottom 7-9, which would in turn likely make the WC bar actually go up even with extra WC spots.

[Schad]

It's not necessarily that I'm down on our chances to make it, so much as I feel that it's partially beyond our control; this team isn't going to make the leap into the top five on merit alone, because 81 wins to 93 or 94 in the AL East is a really substantial ask...we're talking a change in run differential of close to 140 to have an expected record in that region. Granted, the Rays did that and far more, but it took the simultaneous maturation of five or six big-time prospects into massive contributors, and that's something we're not likely to see for another couple years.

If it happens, we're probably going to need two of the teams we're chasing to stumble in a big way; that's certainly a realistic possibility, but I'm good with setting the bar at around 85 wins, hoping that signals our arrival to Rogers in a big way, and going all-in in the upcoming off-season to make it a reality.

[satyr9]

That sounds about right and being in the AL East, dramatically outperforming pythag seems equally unlikely.

But in August, the 85 vs. 90 vs 95 pace is still small enough to feel like you're close (maybe 5ish games in early Aug for 85 to 95, but 5 teams on pace for 95 wins would be a dramatic change from the last decade of baseball). Things wouldn't be looking too hot if you're 5 out with a large pythag differential in early August, but with so many games against the guys you'd likely need to catch, one deal or one big shift anywhere can really change the outlook. So even under a bad case scenario, an 85ish team (and regardless of last year, I can see this team as constructed being capable of +30-50, obviously that's a big range) is still within striking distance and a hot streak or a big deal against all their competitors makes our late summer an incredibly fun ride for the first time in a very very (I'd like to put quite a few more very's here) long time.

[Randle McMurphy]

They need to get effective starting pitching from more than just Ricky Romero. It's time that Brandon Morrow figured his **** out of the stretch.

[LLJ]

Personally, I'll be fine with a run this year that keeps us competitive through the end of August, and leaves us 4-5 games out of the playoffs when all is said and done. It'd send a pretty clear signal that the team is one or two moves away.

I think Rogers' incentive to make moves is predicated more on ticket sales than actual team competitiveness. I'm not sure people will come just because Jays tease a playoff berth and fall short. Toronto sports fans are too jaded to fall for that. They really have to make the playoffs for people to come out.

[Schad]

I think Rogers' incentive to make moves is predicated more on ticket sales than actual team competitiveness. I'm not sure people will come just because Jays tease a playoff berth and fall short. Toronto sports fans are too jaded to fall for that. They really have to make the playoffs for people to come out.

Rogers' incentive is absolutely to sell tickets, but we've sold far more when competitive. Attendance spiked between 2006-2008 when we looked like we had an outside chance of the playoffs; we averaged just under 30,000 a night for three years. We won't vault up to 35,000+ a night unless the team is awfully good, but if we're there or thereabouts with attendance and ratings climbing, they would have to be absolute idiots not to ratchet up the payroll.

[satyr9]

I think if it's August and the race involves the Jays being less than a half dozen back of a playoff spot and it's a matter of catching someone other than BOS/NY (meaning it's a different dynamic then even our vaguely competitive years in the aughts), then I think those jaded fans will be very interested. For now, the promise is all hypothetical so jaded fans will remain so, but if the Jays and the new playoff structure can show there is a legitimate chance the Jays are within striking distance of being a real competitive team, then I think you'll get more than enough evidence at the gate and the dial for Rogers to justify upping the payroll to try and draw more fans. Maybe it won't be as much as we all would like to see, although I'm not as pessimistic on that front as others, but if this year's squad can keep things interesting late enough in the year, I'm very confident there'll be enough of an interest spike to justify some payroll bumpage.

With all the sucritude in TOR sports going on, IMO this city is ready to go nutso for a legit winning team. The flip side is if this team disappoints, the fans are going to get insane about Rogers and the last offseason. Like really really insane.

[Chevy Chase]

My gut tells me that at the end of the year we will look back and say:

If we had one more top end starter and an upgrade at first base we would be in the playoffs for sure.

[U_Mad]

lol SI has 6 AL teams predicted to win 90+ games....they have us with 84 and a 4th place finish....story of our lives...