Logical move is to put Bautista at 1st base in 2013

[flatjacket1]

Ugh, UZR is a flawed stat. Some people fail to mention that its information is compiled by human scorers. Do these human scorers consider the range of a CF who may be taking PO's away from his corner outfielders? How the hell does Bautista's RF ARM drop from 6.0 in 2010 to 1.9 in 2011??? So he's not detering as many runs as he used to? Has his arm strength decreased? How do they score runs detered?

I'm all for sabermetrics and new age offensive stats, but defensive stats (especailly UZR) are still a work in progress and should not be used as the be all and end all.

It isn't perfect but it isn't nearly as inaccurate as you make it sound. If you would rather go by fielding% and assist/errors then go ahead but UZR/150 is a fairly accurate stat.

By the way Bautista's arm "dropped" because he had 6 errors with only like 13 assist this year. That's almost a 1 error to 2 assist ratio.

[StringerBell]

It isn't perfect but it isn't nearly as inaccurate as you make it sound. If you would rather go by fielding% and assist/errors then go ahead but UZR/150 is a fairly accurate stat.

By the way Bautista's arm "dropped" because he had 6 errors with only like 13 assist this year. That's almost a 1 error to 2 assist ratio.

People often say something like, “Well, he had a +10 UZR last year, which means that he actually played well, even though he might be an average or even below average defender.” For example, Jeter had a very nice UZR in 2009, a decent one in 2008, and some terrible ones for many years prior to that. So, he is a perfect example of a below-average defender who played excellent defense last year and pretty good defense the year before, right? Well, maybe and maybe not. A player’s UZR does not necessarily tell you how he actually played just as it does not necessarily tell you what his true talent is. That is a very important point.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.ph ... zr-primer/

All I'm saying is that in Bautista's case where his arm is as valuable or more valuable than his range is, may not be completely captured by UZR. How much value do they put into a RF detering a player going first to third or second to home on a single? Why are double plays only counted as one out? There are just too many questions for using UZR to come to the conclusion he's an inadequate RF IMO.

[Hendrix]

I come off like a big douche I admit. I must have been hungry when I wrote that but listen to you. You sound like a massive douche. Not because your antagonistic but because your post is completley devoid of an argument.

Had no idea saying Lind is our 2nd most valuable hitter last season (3rd if you count Lawire) would be such a controversal opinion. But im sticking by it.

I really appreciate hearing all the opinions, especially if you actually back up your posts with (gasp) stats. But for you bud, to say things like "worst post in the history of the jays forum" and "Literally everything you said was wrong". Read your post back to yourself. You sound like a douche too, what are you 14? It must be easy to make it to 'Real GM' if you put no thought into your posts.

lol, yeah that's what I'm going to do. Enter into an argument with someone that has shown they have no idea what they are talking about, and can't have a civil discussion or respond to someone without throwing out a myriad of insults. [/green] . I'm sorry, but I know a waste of time when I see it.

If you want people to enter into discussions with you and give counter-arguments maybe you should stop throwing out insults left and right.

[Dan2087]

Bautista needs to stay in right - his arm is a huge asset definsively and thats where he wants to play, so let him. Im not going to move him to accomodate unproven players

If Lind does not pan out, Id rather see EE, Snider or maybe even JPA if D'Arnaud is ready, at 1B

[flatjacket1]

All I'm saying is that in Bautista's case where his arm is as valuable or more valuable than his range is, may not be completely captured by UZR. How much value do they put into a RF detering a player going first to third or second to home on a single? Why are double plays only counted as one out? There are just too many questions for using UZR to come to the conclusion he's an inadequate RF IMO.

True talent is something that you can bring up in ANY statistical argument. It doesn't quite act like a trump card but yet it does. You can argue Bautista .260 or whatever average in 2010 was closer to his true talent than .300 he hit in 2011 but it's all a crapshoot.

People tend to overvalue arms, and even by basic metrics Bautista doesn't seem to have a rocket of an arm.

They are based on the speed and location of batted balls to the outfield and how often base runners advance extra bases (advances), don’t advance the extra base (holds), or get thrown out trying to advance (kills). Park factors are used in arm ratings. For example, because the left fielder plays so shallow in Fenway and balls tend to quickly ricochet off the Green Monster, it is difficult to advance an extra base on a hit to LF in Boston. In Colorado, because the OF is so expansive, base runners advance more easily than in an average park. The UZR “arm engine” adjusts for those things.

As you can see, the metric does cover (holds). It is a much more accurate stat than the latter option, of just "scouting" the games.

EDIT:

Yeah I just checked, Bautista is 11th in the league in ARM, which means his UZR/150 which includes his arm, is acknowledged by the system... Which means his range is just that much worse.

[Randle McMurphy]

People always hate on Lind. "Lind sucks and is a bottom 7 or 8 First Baseman in baseball" Whatever that means.

Listen tard who WAS our 2nd best hitter statistically last year? Can't say Lawrie he only had 150 at bats. Only Escobar and Encarn had a higher OPS than Lind and they didn't produce 26HR and 87RBI.

Just admit you are beat chump. Who WAS our 2nd best hitter last year? Say it was EE i dare you. But you couldn't possibly be that stupid could you?

WTF is this ish.. Probably the worst post on the Jays forum ever. This is even bad by Raptors forum standards. Not only do you sound like a douche, but literally everything you said is wrong. Wow....

I come off like a big douche I admit. I must have been hungry when I wrote that but listen to you. You sound like a massive douche. Not because your antagonistic but because your post is completley devoid of an argument.

Had no idea saying Lind is our 2nd most valuable hitter last season (3rd if you count Lawire) would be such a controversal opinion. But im sticking by it.

I really appreciate hearing all the opinions, especially if you actually back up your posts with (gasp) stats. But for you bud, to say things like "worst post in the history of the jays forum" and "Literally everything you said was wrong". Read your post back to yourself. You sound like a douche too, what are you 14? It must be easy to make it to 'Real GM' if you put no thought into your posts.

Adam Lind had a poor .315 wOBA (weighted On-Base average) and had a wRAA (weighted runs above average) that was below the league average. Bautista, Escobar, Lawrie, Encarnacion, Thames, Jose Molina, and Kelly Johnson all contributed more offensively to the Jays last season than he did: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 0&sort=1,d

So not only was Lind not the 2nd most valuable hitter on the team, he was actually one of the team's worst hitters all season. You don't even want me to tell you how he stood in comparison to the other regular starting 1B around the league.

[flatjacket1]

Adam Lind had a poor .315 wOBA (weighted On-Base average) and had a wRAA (weighted runs above average) that was below the league average. Bautista, Escobar, Lawrie, Encarnacion, Thames, Jose Molina, and Kelly Johnson all contributed more offensively to the Jays last season than he did: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?p ... 0&sort=1,d

So not only was Lind not the 2nd most valuable hitter on the team, he was actually one of the team's worst hitters all season. You don't even want me to tell you how he stood in comparison to the other regular starting 1B around the league.

Well put Randle. I could have expanded and added that in my last post but I figured somebody like you could have done an equally as good job.

Lind was easily one of our worst players last season. One of the worst 1B in the league.

[Skin Blues]

When all the guy ever sees is HR and RBI on ESPN and Sportsnet and whoever else broadcasts games, how is he supposed to know how futile it is to come a conclusion using those stats? Forgive him fellow Jays fans, for he knows not what he does. But the douchiness is unacceptable. Actually, we can probably blame that on Spike TV. Dammit.

[flatjacket1]

Bautista needs to stay in right - his arm is a huge asset definsively

I disagree...