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ST: Blue Jays(51-53) @ Athletics(56-48) | Aug 2-5

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Re: ST: Blue Jays(51-53) @ Athletics(56-48) | Aug 2-5 

Post#441 » by RapsFanInVA » Mon Aug 6, 2012 4:04 am

Schadenfreude wrote:
RapsFanInVA wrote:Despite an ungodly amount of injuries and losing 6 in a row, we're only 2 games under .500

2012 Jays - The Turd You Can't Flush


If a quick glance serves me well, we haven't been more than five games above or below .500 all season. And we were five games +/- for exactly two games: at 23-18 and 24-19. Mediocrity, it's how we do.

That's correct. Before this recent slide we hadn't been more than 2 games below .500 at ANY point. When we had guys healthy and were winning games, Farrell was always quick to make many "WTF" decisions regarding our bullpen to ensure we wouldn't win too many games (Cordero played his role perfectly). But on the flip side, as injuries mounted and we seemed to face certain doom, we'd take 3 out of 4 to climb back to .500

The Jays are all about dwelling (quite comfortably) in mediocrity. I'm both frustrated and amazed by this season. Look at our lineup the last two games and explain to me how we won. You can't. Nobody can. It defies logic.
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Re: ST: Blue Jays(51-53) @ Athletics(56-48) | Aug 2-5 

Post#442 » by Schad » Mon Aug 6, 2012 4:10 am

RapsFanInVA wrote:
It defies logic.


That really ought to be the Jays' tagline.

By the by, I wish I had the mathematical chops to figure out what the odds are of 108 outcomes in a coin flip deviating by so little. Guessing that it's not a high-percentage bet even with pure random chance, never mind a 25-man roster (plus roughly 187 call-ups).
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Re: ST: Blue Jays(51-53) @ Athletics(56-48) | Aug 2-5 

Post#443 » by Kurtz » Mon Aug 6, 2012 5:39 am

Schadenfreude wrote:
RapsFanInVA wrote:
It defies logic.


That really ought to be the Jays' tagline.

By the by, I wish I had the mathematical chops to figure out what the odds are of 108 outcomes in a coin flip deviating by so little. Guessing that it's not a high-percentage bet even with pure random chance, never mind a 25-man roster (plus roughly 187 call-ups).


Well, just using some rudimentary probabilities, if you flip a coin 5 times, there's about a 3.2% chance you'll get heads 5 times in a row and an equal chance to get tails. Given 108 games, that's about 21 flip segments of 5 flips each, so there's roughly a 47% chance that in that span you'll hit 5 heads and an equal chance of 5 tails.

I believe we've had one 5 game loss streak and zero 5 game winning streaks- as stats would have predicted, assuming the Jays chances of winning each game were equal to a coin flip.
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Re: ST: Blue Jays(51-53) @ Athletics(56-48) | Aug 2-5 

Post#444 » by Schad » Mon Aug 6, 2012 5:46 am

Kurtz wrote:Well, just using some rudimentary probabilities, if you flip a coin 5 times, there's about a 3.2% chance you'll get heads 5 times in a row and an equal chance to get tails. Given 108 games, that's about 21 flip segments of 5 flips each, so there's roughly a 47% chance that in that span you'll hit 5 heads and an equal chance of 5 tails.

I believe we've had one 5 game loss streak and zero 5 game winning streaks- as stats would have predicted, assuming the Jays chances of winning each game were equal to a coin flip.


Think it'd end up being a bit less likely than that, simply because you don't require five in a row; an almost perfect distribution with just a few xxy results along the way would do it.
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