Cecil, Carpenter to Vegas, HECH CALLED UP

[BigLeagueChew]

A LOOGY has significantly less value than a below average starter. Cecil should still be given the chance to figure out how to stop allowing home runs. The payoff is too high to ignore; it's the equivalent of selling low.

How much value does a below average starter get you? For me, he's been given enough chances to figure it out, check out his career splits he's had enough at bats and chances to make an adjustment and he hasn't done it yet.

[Skin Blues]

Clearly we need viable starting pitchers more than we need a LOOGY right now. If he becomes expendable, then trade him. No sense in ruining an asset because we think we're elite and have no use for middling back of the rotation starters.

[flatjacket1]

Clearly we need viable starting pitchers more than we need a LOOGY right now. If he becomes expendable, then trade him. No sense in ruining an asset because we think we're elite and have no use for middling back of the rotation starters.

I have a feeling a lights out LOOGY is worth more than a 5 ERA SP.

[s e n s i]

hey sensi, farrel asked him to play 3rd base instead of gomes. makes sense now?

mathis is catching today while gomes is starting at 1B

please explain why



makes sense now?



BUT BUT WAT IF MATHIS AND GOMES BOTH GET INJURED???? WE HAV NO EMERJENSEY CATCHURRR

[baulderdash77]

Cecil = Garbage. Good riddance!

He's been given more than enough chances to prove he can pitch in the big leagues. The HR's and BB's have been his detriment.

I would prefer Cecil over Laffey, but i guess Cecil is giving up WAY to many homeruns.

I don't mind Cecil in the pen as a left handed specialist. He puts up Jansen like numbers against LHP, their OBP is only .225 (Jansen .222). If you moved him to the pen that would go down because relievers have shorter outings and can put more velo on pitches (and don't need to preserve stamina).

I wouldn't have sent him down and tried to keep him as a starter. I'd let him do what he does best.

Cecil can be a completely dominant bullpen arm for us if used effectively. He doesn't have to be a pure loogy though. He can be a guy that you look to when there's 2 out of 3 LHB coming up and you throw him in there just like any LHP from the bullpen.

[baulderdash77]

I for one am really excited about seeing Hech come up. Hopefully Lawrie is ok but I really want to see Hech play some 2B in there for KJ during the last 2 months of this season to see how he looks.

[Yorkz]

I really want to see Hech play some 2B in there for KJ during the last 2 months of this season to see how he looks.

I wonder how much Farrel will weigh Hech's playing time against letting KJ showcase for his next job.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

Cecil can be a completely dominant bullpen arm for us if used effectively. He doesn't have to be a pure loogy though. He can be a guy that you look to when there's 2 out of 3 LHB coming up and you throw him in there just like any LHP from the bullpen.

He could also be a much more reliable arm than Aaron Laffey. A guy that's striking out seven batters per nine innings has a lot of value. Obviously Cecil's main issue is the long ball but if he can control it, his value goes way up which is why he should not be converted to the relief role.

[flatjacket1]

He could also be a much more reliable arm than Aaron Laffey. A guy that's striking out seven batters per nine innings has a lot of value. Obviously Cecil's main issue is the long ball but if he can control it, his value goes way up which is why he should not be converted to the relief role.

We aren't exactly contending for a wildcard spot. I'd be fine with letting Cecil finish the year as a starter as we don't really have a good enough replacement for him and the fact that we are not in a position where his value needs to be maximized.

Long term, converting him to a relief role makes plenty of sense. He would be a lights out LOOGY, worth approx. 1 win compared to right now that he's on pace for 0. You can't say it's just the long ball, even if his FB/HR rate normalized, xFIP has him with a 4.5+ ERA, which still isn't even 5th starter material on a contending team.

This offseason we will for sure sign 2ish guys better than Cecil. Our rotation will likely look like this:
1. Morrow
2. Romero
3. FA
4. Alvarez
5. FA
(6.) Hutch, Drabek, McGowan

I'm not sure about you but I wouldn't even classify Cecil as a 6th starter in that lineup.

Of course if he somehow adds like 2-4 MPH to his fastball, maybe he can stick. I just don't see that happening as he's been trying to do that for years.

[Skin Blues]

Long term, converting him to a relief role makes plenty of sense. He would be a lights out LOOGY, worth approx. 1 win compared to right now that he's on pace for 0. You can't say it's just the long ball, even if his FB/HR rate normalized, xFIP has him with a 4.5+ ERA, which still isn't even 5th starter material on a contending team.

The only AL teams without at least two starting pitchers with an ERA of 4.50 or worse are Oakland and Tampa. You might want to re-think what constitutes 5th starter material.

There are hundreds of LOOGY's in the majors and minors and they're cheap to acquire or produce. Maybe if we're in a playoff run and we can't find one, sure, convert Cecil. But right now it makes no sense at all since we are in dire need of starting pitching.

[flatjacket1]

Long term, converting him to a relief role makes plenty of sense. He would be a lights out LOOGY, worth approx. 1 win compared to right now that he's on pace for 0. You can't say it's just the long ball, even if his FB/HR rate normalized, xFIP has him with a 4.5+ ERA, which still isn't even 5th starter material on a contending team.

The only AL teams without at least two starting pitchers with an ERA of 4.50 or worse are Oakland and Tampa. You might want to re-think what constitutes 5th starter material.

There are hundreds of LOOGY's in the majors and minors and they're cheap to acquire or produce. Maybe if we're in a playoff run and we can't find one, sure, convert Cecil. But right now it makes no sense at all since we are in dire need of starting pitching.

Two teams above us in the standings. Two teams we will have to beat out in order to make the playoffs.

Sorry I thought we were intending to build a playoff team. A contender. Like both teams mentioned were.

You didn't read my whole post apparently. I said leave him in this year, because we are in dire need of starting pitching. Next season when we presumably sign a starting pitcher or two, I'd rather Hutch in the rotation than Cecil.

High end LOOGY's are hard to find.

Not to mention that's IF his HR/FB rate normalized, which it doesn't for some players.

[satyr9]

His only point is that 4.50+ ERA is far above fifth starter quality in the AL. A touch more than half of all AL starters (65/129) have ERA's over 4.5 and it you sort by GS, they're almost as prevalent among the heaviest used (28/60) as they are among the 1 start guys. 4.50 ERA for a contending team is a bad 3rd, a solid 4th, and a tremendous 5th. If you're weak hitting you're gonna need at least solid or tremendous to keep contending, like OAK and TB.

And none of that should be shocking considering the AL has scored 6758 runs in 1512 (4.47 runs per game). That makes 4.50 pretty much the bang on average pitcher.

I don't much care what they do with Cecil, but Skin's right about the value of a 4.50ERA starter compared to a loogy.

[flatjacket1]

His only point is that 4.50+ ERA is far above fifth starter quality in the AL. A touch more than half of all AL starters (65/129) have ERA's over 4.5 and it you sort by GS, they're almost as prevalent among the heaviest used (28/60) as they are among the 1 start guys. 4.50 ERA for a contending team is a bad 3rd, a solid 4th, and a tremendous 5th. If you're weak hitting you're gonna need at least solid or tremendous to keep contending, like OAK and TB.

And none of that should be shocking considering the AL has scored 6758 runs in 1512 (4.47 runs per game). That makes 4.50 pretty much the bang on average pitcher.

I don't much care what they do with Cecil, but Skin's right about the value of a 4.50ERA starter compared to a loogy.

My only point is that a 4.5 true talent ERA (which I never called him, I think it's even higher, I was just referencing xFIP and I doubt Cecils HR/FB will EVER normalize to league average) is bad. That means if all goes as planned you are a 4.5 ERA. Henderson Alvarez for example is likely around a 4 ERA true talent level and look at the season he's having ERA wise. Cecil could easily start 30 games and go 5.5+ ERA. You can't slot a guy in to any rotation when a "good season" means around 4.5 ERA.

It's also worth noting an xFIP of 4.5 is considered "poor" and 1 level away from "awful" in the Fangraphs glossary. There is 5 levels above it and 1 level below it.

If I had to guess Cecils true talent ERA I'd say it would be around 5 point something. Soft tossers tend to have a high HR/FB ratio.

[Skin Blues]

You can't slot a guy in to any rotation when a "good season" means around 4.5 ERA.

See this is where you aren't getting it... it's not ideal, but you can absolutely slot a pitcher into your rotation expecting a 4.50 ERA. Especially in the AL East. Not that Cecil is definitely the guy for the #4/5 spot next year, but he's amongst the spaghetti we can throw at the wall hoping that something sticks. If throughout the season we don't need him in the rotation and we're making a playoff run then sure, toss him in the bullpen. But right now... it just makes no sense. We could trade him for 10 LOOGY's if that's what we wanted.

[flatjacket1]

See this is where you aren't getting it... it's not ideal, but you can absolutely slot a pitcher into your rotation expecting a 4.50 ERA. Especially in the AL East. Not that Cecil is definitely the guy for the #4/5 spot next year, but he's amongst the spaghetti we can throw at the wall hoping that something sticks. If throughout the season we don't need him in the rotation and we're making a playoff run then sure, toss him in the bullpen. But right now... it just makes no sense. We could trade him for 10 LOOGY's if that's what we wanted.

Ok but as I said, he isn't a 4.5 ERA pitcher. He is higher than that, and when in a bad year your ERA can be 6ish then you shouldn't be a starter, especially with crazy L/R splits.

Right now I've also said, (do you read my post?) this season MAKE 0 SENSE TO MAKE HIM A LOOGY. I'm saying after we add a pitcher or two in FA, and Hutch and Drabek come back, it makes sense for him to move to the pen.

I also doubt we could trade him for 10 LOOGY's.

[Skin Blues]

See this is where you aren't getting it... it's not ideal, but you can absolutely slot a pitcher into your rotation expecting a 4.50 ERA. Especially in the AL East. Not that Cecil is definitely the guy for the #4/5 spot next year, but he's amongst the spaghetti we can throw at the wall hoping that something sticks. If throughout the season we don't need him in the rotation and we're making a playoff run then sure, toss him in the bullpen. But right now... it just makes no sense. We could trade him for 10 LOOGY's if that's what we wanted.

Ok but as I said, he isn't a 4.5 ERA pitcher. He is higher than that, and when in a bad year your ERA can be 6ish then you shouldn't be a starter, especially with crazy L/R splits.

Right now I've also said, (do you read my post?) this season MAKE 0 SENSE TO MAKE HIM A LOOGY. I'm saying after we add a pitcher or two in FA, and Hutch and Drabek come back, it makes sense for him to move to the pen.

I also doubt we could trade him for 10 LOOGY's.

Bottom line he shouldn't be automatically handed a spot in the rotation in 2013, but he should certainly be given an audtion. Let's wait until we sign those 2 FA starters and have another 3 healthy effective pitchers in place before we go sending him to the bullpen. Because the name you mentioned as his replacement is already going to miss all of 2013, and all of a sudden we need more starters. It's very hard and expensive to replace starting pitchers which is why you don't banish 25 year olds (either this year, or next) to the bullpen after a disappointing season.

[flatjacket1]

to the bullpen after a disappointing season.

One? Okay.

And Stroman is 21 and he's already banished!