Now if you sub out our starters not named Romero & Morrow and sub in Dickey, Johnson & Buehrle you get new numbers of 931 IP and 393 ER- a decrease down to an ERA of 3.79 and 98 runs. Actually 105 runs when you consider the innings displaced by relievers (b/c of double counting of innings).
You can't expect that performance exactly, but Bill James has given out his projections for 2013 already on Fangraphs. Here's the results: 999 IP and 409 ER (3.68 ERA)- good for a savings of 82 raw runs saved and 122 runs saved when you consider the innings displaced by relievers (b/c of double counting of innings)
Bill James projections include a major regression back for RA Dickey & Brandon Morrow with a major improvement in Romero & smaller improvement for Johnson. He has Buehrle just about the same.
These projections would have us 2nd in the AL (after the Rays) and tied for 5th in MLB for starter's ERA. The Rays are head and shoulders ahead of anyone else. Even after losing Shields they'll still have the best rotation probably.
Overall, if the offense didn't change a bit from last year, and the bullpen gave us a similar 4.33 ERA as last year our run differential would go from -68 to somewhere between +37 to +54 and a Pythagorean projected wins total of 85 to 87 wins.
For reference here is the raw #'s of Bill James' projections.
Code: Select all
Name W L ERA GS IP ER SO BB
Dickey 16 8 3.58 34 226 90 152 56
Johnson 13 9 3.21 31 196 70 166 62
Buehrle 11 12 3.78 31 205 86 106 41
Morrow 11 9 3.47 30 187 72 191 66
Romero 8 12 4.43 32 185 91 140 89
