Okay, can't fix Jays now, but what moves now for 2014?

[dagger]

So we're 37 games in, starting guys practically off the minor league DL and others off the scrap heap. The Jays have the third worst record in the majors - the Angels, Dodgers and Phils aren't far behind, money doesn't always buy happiness. It seems as if good managing and good management helps. Of the guys off to historically bad starts by their recent standards, only Melky and Jose seem to be pulling out. Lawrie, Bonifacio, continue to struggle and we're playing scrubs in place of real second basemen and real shortstops. The offence can be summed up as 21st in runs, 26th in on base percentage, and 28th in batting average. In slugging percentage, we're 14th, ever true to the long ball.

In pitching, 29th in ERA, 29th in WHIP, 27th in BAA and 23rd in quality starts.

We do, however, lead the league in pitcher injuries. We have three starters currently pitching under duress or missing starts because of muscle/back complaints. (And one guy who was drilled in the head). Last year, it was elbows. I wondered last season if there was a pattern, a lack in how the team addresses training, stretching, off-season work, therapy, rehab, whatever, that was contributing to such a debilitating number of injuries. There may not be a pattern, other teams have serious injury issues, but I'd really feel reassured if the Jays did a canvass of best practices around the majors and adopted them.

The Jays are 9.5 games out, and frankly have a rough road just to get out of the AL East basement.

So most of us, if not all, believe playoffs are dead. I'm not sure if AA has come around totally to this, it's not yet evident in what he is saying or doing. Most discouraging, AA is stuck with some guys who can't be traded and will be owed big money next season, like Buerhle, Romero - that's $27 million right there. So big FA signings or picking up big money in trades seems out of the question.

On the plus side, as expensive as Reyes is, he can still be a well above player when healthy, and some of the ending contracts we have have some small trade value (Oliver, Bonafacio, Lind, Johnson maybe slightly more) based on teams either needing them for a playoff charge or believing in Bonafacio's case he is hitting so well below his career average that he is a near sure bet to bounce back soon. And the way they are playing now, most of these players, plus 2014 arb-eligible players like Rasmus, Davis, could be traded for whatever and replaced with cheaper players and we'd be no worse off than we are right now, and possibly better. For example, I don't think we need to pay Colby Rasmus $5-6 million to play centre field and set a Jays record for strikeouts (he's well on the way to smashing the old record) when Gose or Pillar might do no worse for rookie money. I mean if a guy has an oWAR of 0.3, the Jays should start taking that literally. At 0.7 WAR and declining, Colby is moving towards the lower end of reserve status.

Among cheaper alternatives, we have the Buffalo four candidates in Negrych, Thole, Gose and Sierra, plus Pillar in NH and likely Stroman, plus later this year, and certainly by next spring, we should have all of our elbow surgeries back - Hutchinson, Perez, Drabek. Not saying all of these players are improvements, but let's say two or three of them might be better fits - and cost a fraction in 2014 salary - of disposable guys on the current 25-man roster.

My question now is what should AA be doing to get things ready for next season.

My initial suggestions, and they are all very sketchy and subject to revision, would be implemented up to the trade deadline, because the trade market isn't going to heat up in May.

1. Shake up the coaching staff, move Mottola back to the minors and try a different hitting approach. Let's see if a change in approach or motivation can shake a couple of these guys out of their statistical lethargy.

2. Right now, start getting rid of outright non-factors for 2014 not signed for next season, like Blanco, Kawasaki, DeRosa and bring in Thole and Negrych as a minimum. Let's see if either of those guys can carry their weight as a key reserve or in Negrych's case, as a starter.

3. For trades prior to the deadline, accept that some guys who are arb eligible this winter aren't worth keeping for the salaries they can command, because if they are going to hit .220 again, their production can be replaced with much lower paid guys. Even if they bounce back somewhere else, the question is whether they can flourish here in the roles given to them or the pressure they feel. So by the trade deadline, I move some of them out.

4. By August, give the fans a glimmer of some fresh or familiar young faces, subject, of course, to decent performances by them in the minors. I'm thinking Stroman, Hutchinson, maybe Nolin, Gose and Pillar. Above all, I'd use the trade deadline to help clear a path for them in 2014, and also to clear out a couple of organizational logjams. For example, the Jays can't really get Jimenez, if he's healthy, all the way to BUF if Thole is there, they can't really get Pillar to BUF as a CF if Gose is there.

[Waylon Mercy]

Ya I think we're all on board with that except for Randle McMurphy who still
thinks Gibbons is a great manager and none of this is his fault.

With almost the entire big league team under performing and the farm emptied we dont
have much in tradeable assets right now. Need someone to post the 2013 FA Class to see
if there is anything out there that can help us dramatically.

[dagger]

Who on our 25-man roster has options left? Lawrie to be sure, Happ, because he was a candidate for BUF in the spring, probably Loup, Lincoln and JPA? But who else? Trying to see if any of our underperformers are candidates for a bit of shock therapy.

[Randle McMurphy]

Ya I think we're all on board with that except for Randle McMurphy who still
thinks Gibbons is a great manager and none of this is his fault.

Still have yet to have someone explain how Gibbons caused half the team to underachieve and the other half to get hurt (and some both). I expect I'll keep waiting.

[There There]

Ya I think we're all on board with that except for Randle McMurphy who still
thinks Gibbons is a great manager and none of this is his fault.

Still have yet to have someone explain how Gibbons caused half the team to underachieve and the other half to get hurt (and some both). I expect I'll keep waiting.

Better get comfortable as you're going to be waiting awhile.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Other than some minor tweaks, nothing really needs to be done. Hopefully Hutch and Drabek are healthy to provide some starting pitching depth. I would also happily pay $5-6 million to a guy who is currently 13th among centre fielders in fWAR, 14th in wOBA, and 12th in slugging, while playing very good defense. I don't know how being in the top half of all centre fielders in baseball is "moving towards the lower end of reserve status."

[evenflow]

Not based on any expertise but just my thoughts.

Batista has to be traded and JPA just has to go away and never come back. I don't care if they trade him or dump him in a ditch, just get him and Batista away from this team.

Find a real 2nd basemen, and real DH. Tell Brett that for every time he twitches his bat before swinging the entire team gets to punch him in the head.

[Scorpion King]

Depending on where the Blue jays finish this season. Everyone on the 25 man roster should be fielded offers

Batista, Encarncion, Dickey, Buehrle and anyone over 30 should be looked at. Blue Jays need to replenish the farm system

[Lateral Quicks]

While he can't "fix" the starters except by hoping they revert to their career norms as the season progresses, he most definitely can fix the bench. The bench is more important than most people realize, since collectively they probably get in the area of 30-40 ABs per week (actually more if platoons are used).

Blanco -> Thole
DeRosa -> Negrych
Bonifacio -> Sierra

It's frustrating not a single one of these obvious (to most) moves have not yet been made. Remember when AA said he was going to put the best possible team out there in 2013?

The time to worry about 2014 is if they're still 10 games out come the trade deadline. The talent everyone recognized coming into the season is still there (though some of it is injured). The team is still capable of bunching a lot of wins together.

[akakalakin]

think some large scale moves would be required at a minimum

no one can predict those, but any and all should be in play

[Raps_Swingman]

After being at the Buffalo game this week I am totally for giving Negrych a shot at 2 bag. Guy has never played a Major League game but is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball. He is 28 years old, but in baseball thats nowhere near done and has progressed at every minor league level. He's definitely a better player then Kawasaki, especially at the dish.

Who knows, maybe just having that guy who wants to be in the Majors so bad can bring some life and levity to a team that isn't having a ton of fun.

Also read an article that he was in the running to start the season on the major roster. With Rajai out its worth a shot.

[dagger]

After being at the Buffalo game this week I am totally for giving Negrych a shot at 2 bag. Guy has never played a Major League game but is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball. He is 28 years old, but in baseball thats nowhere near done and has progressed at every minor league level. He's definitely a better player then Kawasaki, especially at the dish.

Who knows, maybe just having that guy who wants to be in the Majors so bad can bring some life and levity to a team that isn't having a ton of fun.

Also read an article that he was in the running to start the season on the major roster. With Rajai out its worth a shot.

It has reached a point with Negrych that the Buffalo media wants him to have his shot in Toronto. Usually, the local media of farm teams is down on the prospect of losing talent to the big league team in season. With Negrycj, it seems everyone is cheering for him.

Mike Harrington ‏@BNHarrington 33m
Memo to #BlueJays: Jim Negrych leads IL in BA (.433), slugging (.663), OBP (.487) and OPS (1.151). WHAT are you waiting for? #Bisons

As for Josh Thole vs Blanco, my view is well known. I haven't understood the logic of leaving Thole in BUF when Blanco is hitting .160 and plays less than one full game in five. With Dickey's effectiveness down, the logic of catering to his need by keeping a catching specialist who is only a little bit better at handling Dickey than Thole is, eludes me.

Mike Harrington ‏@BNHarrington 6m
@accfanto Thole is very good catching Dickey, Blanco is excellent at it. But Dickey hasn't pitched well enough to have that influence.

[tecumseh18]

But is there a precedent for a career scrub to suddenly "get it" at the age of 28 and start to dominate? No-one comes to mind.

I can only imagine AA feels guilty about selling Buffalo on our highly rated minor league system, only to empty the minors of the top prospects in favour of aging MLB veterans a month or so later. He doesn't want to be criticized for "doing a Loria" in our first season in the Queen City.

[dagger]

But is there a precedent for a career scrub to suddenly "get it" at the age of 28 and start to dominate? No-one comes to mind.

I can only imagine AA feels guilty about selling Buffalo on our highly rated minor league system, only to empty the minors of the top prospects in favour of aging MLB veterans a month or so later. He doesn't want to be criticized for "doing a Loria" in our first season in the Queen City.

Hmmm, Jose Bautista? Edwin Encarnacion?

And Negrych doesn't have to "dominate" at the major league level. He just has to be an improvement over what we are playing now, a guy who is a little hungrier than the ones in place now. It's a low bar right now. Negrych, remember, had a strong spring training, too.

And looking ahead to next season when AA has a lot of money tied up already, finding a cheap fill option for the bench or even a second base starter is an important consideration if we want him to have a few million more to throw at other positions.

And we have some young talent capable of moving up, like A.J. Jimenez who can move into the catcher slot. And some of the guys we might DFA could accept to go to BUF.

I did point out that the Negrych situation in particular has reached a point where even people in BUF are campaigning for his promotion.

There is also a matter of accountability. If players are responsible for bad play and should be held accountable, shouldn't those who exceed expectations be given the reward of a chance at a higher level? Isn't that the mantra you want to pursue throughout your organization right down to the rookie leagues? Success will be rewarded?

As for not wanting to upset the folks in BUF, we're liberally dipping into their pitching ranks already, but will be in a position to rectify that as some of our injured players from last season work their rehab up to that level.

And if AA intends to sacrifice the interests of the major league team to the point where he won't even experiment with guys in BUF, then that is an interesting debate we should have, too.

[MikeM]

Wouldn't compare Bautista or EE to Negrych at all but I get your point and generally agree he should get a chance.

[tecumseh18]

But is there a precedent for a career scrub to suddenly "get it" at the age of 28 and start to dominate? No-one comes to mind.

Hmmm, Jose Bautista? Edwin Encarnacion?

Yes, I was being sarcastic. I've made three posts in the two boards in the last 15 minutes, all with the same level of sarcasm.

[Graham's Cracker]

After being at the Buffalo game this week I am totally for giving Negrych a shot at 2 bag. Guy has never played a Major League game but is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball. He is 28 years old, but in baseball thats nowhere near done and has progressed at every minor league level. He's definitely a better player then Kawasaki, especially at the dish.

Who knows, maybe just having that guy who wants to be in the Majors so bad can bring some life and levity to a team that isn't having a ton of fun.

Also read an article that he was in the running to start the season on the major roster. With Rajai out its worth a shot.

It has reached a point with Negrych that the Buffalo media wants him to have his shot in Toronto. Usually, the local media of farm teams is down on the prospect of losing talent to the big league team in season. With Negrycj, it seems everyone is cheering for him.

Mike Harrington ‏@BNHarrington 33m
Memo to #BlueJays: Jim Negrych leads IL in BA (.433), slugging (.663), OBP (.487) and OPS (1.151). WHAT are you waiting for? #Bisons

As for Josh Thole vs Blanco, my view is well known. I haven't understood the logic of leaving Thole in BUF when Blanco is hitting .160 and plays less than one full game in five. With Dickey's effectiveness down, the logic of catering to his need by keeping a catching specialist who is only a little bit better at handling Dickey than Thole is, eludes me.

Mike Harrington ‏@BNHarrington 6m
@accfanto Thole is very good catching Dickey, Blanco is excellent at it. But Dickey hasn't pitched well enough to have that influence.

It's important too to have a capable Catcher to keep JPA from getting fatigued. I think he'd be a better player if we gave him some time off. On top of that he's a competitive guy. Thole might light a fire under his behind. With Blanco he has nothing to worry about.