Fangraphs article on Brett Lawrie

Kapono · Post #1 » by **Kapono** » Fri Jun 14, 2013 9:51 pm

Not good.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-bloo ... ries-rose/

Remember when he was the next great superstar? Going along the lines of Snider. :-?

Avenger · Post #2 » by **Avenger** » Fri Jun 14, 2013 10:14 pm

how is he going along the lines of Snider? Snider is very close to being a confirmed bust, 0.7 WAR per 162 games so far, people said regular playing time would fix his ailments but it hasn't, he's doing worse than ever in Pittsburgh facing **** NL central pitching. For whatever reason his power, which was basically his only calling card) hasn't translated properly to the majors.

Lawrie is a completely different case, he was below expectations last season but he put up 2.5 WAR in 125 games in his first full season in the bigs, that's as solid as it gets. 2013 has been rough so far but 37 games is a meaningless sample size, its completely normal for players to have downswings like that. Lawrie's swing might be broken and maybe it will never be fixed and maybe he'll never live up to his superstar potential but he can still be very valuable. The injuries are a real concern but its virtually impossible to tell if he's injury prone or he's just been unlucky so far. I personally don't buy the theory that he'll always be injury prone because of his playing style.

The success of Trout, Harper and Machado seems to have warped the expectations people place on young hitters, Lawrie's progression so far in the majors is quite typical. The case of the prospect that just explodes on the scene and stays there is rare.

Kapono · Post #3 » by **Kapono** » Fri Jun 14, 2013 10:40 pm

Avenger wrote:how is he going along the lines of Snider? Snider is very close to being a confirmed bust, 0.7 WAR per 162 games so far, people said regular playing time would fix his ailments but it hasn't, he's doing worse than ever in Pittsburgh facing **** NL central pitching. For whatever reason his power, which was basically his only calling card) hasn't translated properly to the majors.

Lawrie is a completely different case, he was below expectations last season but he put up 2.5 WAR in 125 games in his first full season in the bigs, that's as solid as it gets. 2013 has been rough so far but 37 games is a meaningless sample size, its completely normal for players to have downswings like that. Lawrie's swing might be broken and maybe it will never be fixed and maybe he'll never live up to his superstar potential but he can still be very valuable. The injuries are a real concern but its virtually impossible to tell if he's injury prone or he's just been unlucky so far. I personally don't buy the theory that he'll always be injury prone because of his playing style.

The success of Trout, Harper and Machado seems to have warped the expectations people place on young hitters, Lawrie's progression so far in the majors is quite typical. The case of the prospect that just explodes on the scene and stays there is rare.

We (BJ fans) over estimated Snider and Lawrie has sure superstars. Remember when everyone refused to give up Snider and Drabek for Greinke? LOL... those were the days

kavan · Post #4 » by **kavan** » Fri Jun 14, 2013 11:52 pm

It is still early.. I say he gets a chance to prove himself next year is well. His Defense alone can help us win games his energy is also a big lift.

BigLeagueChew · Post #5 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Fri Jun 14, 2013 11:55 pm

Hes been more valuable than Marcum.

Randle McMurphy · Post #6 » by **Randle McMurphy** » Sat Jun 15, 2013 2:49 am

An article talking about Brett Lawrie's potential/value should probably include at least one reference to his exceptional defense.

ontnut · Post #7 » by **ontnut** » Thu Jun 20, 2013 2:26 pm

BigLeagueChew wrote:Hes been more valuable than Marcum.

Maybe this year. I'd say Macum's 2011/2012 seasons were better value than Lawrie's. His two seasons were both better than any BJ starter this year so far...

Skin Blues · Post #8 » by **Skin Blues** » Thu Jun 20, 2013 3:40 pm

Not only was Lawrie worth twice as many WAR as Marcum in 2011-2012, he was also $10M cheaper. And we have him for 5 more years on top of that at well below market value. That trade turned out to be ridiculously one-sided. There's still plenty of time for him to turn things around. His effort is great but he seems to get out-smarted a lot and can't rely on his athleticism anymore. His great defense should continue and we know he has power and speed to keep his offensive ceiling high. He just needs to improve his plate discipline (and that's no small task).

Relentless88 · Post #9 » by **Relentless88** » Thu Jun 20, 2013 4:47 pm

He's just really stupid. I think he'll eventually mature, and that should improve his game (his approach at the plate).

For now, he's still very valuable defensively, and our offense has more than enough capable hitters to pick up Lawrie's lack of production.

satyr9 · Post #10 » by **satyr9** » Thu Jun 20, 2013 5:46 pm

Lawrie's going through a bit of a transition period in all facets IMO. It'll take a bit more time before I'm ready to write off his talent, 'cause he's got skills. However, I felt the same way about Snider, but to be fair to Travis, the Jays did their best to ruin him with thte ups and downs. We're gonna let Lawrie ride this one out for quite a while IMO. Maybe he never progresses beyond a .750 OPS (he's not as bad as he looked early of that I'm confident) 3B with a good glove, but I still expect more to come in the near future.

But he is a giant douche, so his brain may ruin everything yet.

flatjacket1 · Post #11 » by **flatjacket1** » Thu Jun 20, 2013 8:26 pm

All I remember is saying that we shouldn't extend him 10 years and everybody on this forum said it was the worst post they have seen on the forum.

I remember satyr defending me.

Thank you satyr. Thank you.

satyr9 · Post #12 » by **satyr9** » Thu Jun 20, 2013 8:48 pm

No sweat flat.

That being said, I'd consider extending him 10 years right now if he'd take the deal that represents his current production. I just wouldn't have done it after his first two months.

Not that I'd actually imagine he'd take the deal I'd be comfortable putting on the table today either.

flatjacket1 · Post #13 » by **flatjacket1** » Thu Jun 20, 2013 8:50 pm

satyr9 wrote:No sweat flat.

That being said, I'd consider extending him 10 years right now if he'd take the deal that represents his current production. I just wouldn't have done it after his first two months.

Not that I'd actually imagine he'd take the deal I'd be comfortable putting on the table today either.

As I said in the thread a year or two ago, I would extend him in a time like this. Not 10 years per say, but 4-6 is reasonable, with a team option or two (with decent buyouts).

I think he can still be a guy who hits around .260 on his career, with decent power and plus defense. I'll take that any day.