were the Mariners right about Morrow?

[number15]

The guy has top of the rotation stuff, but cant seem to keep healthy. The way his arm keeps bothering him, like it just did in the minors again, with the fact that he is a power pitcher...... I smell a huge injury in the future with him.

The Mariners knew he was a top talent. He was their 1st round pick and a highly thought of prospect in their system. Yet, they decided to stick him in the pen as a future closer..... yeh they gave him time as a starter and he stunk, but they permanently put him in the pen, which was not a bad idea, if you see what happening now.

Yeh, talent like his looks like a waste in the pen, but i mean he could be a top closer, somewhere else if not in Toronto..... Jays have a closer and then pen is solid. Then again the rotation is doing fine too. i say, if someone offers a good prospect or say a decent 2B, you deal him and wish him the best of luck as a closer for someone else.

[flatjacket1]

With the value of top of the rotation starters, it'd be a huge failure to get rid of him or convert him when he has the potential to be one.

Even if it's only like a 20% chance, we aren't that deep as far as pitchers go and his talent level is still there, he's just missing spots.

[torontoaces04]

With the value of top of the rotation starters, it'd be a huge failure to get rid of him or convert him when he has the potential to be one.

Even if it's only like a 20% chance, we aren't that deep as far as pitchers go and his talent level is still there, he's just missing spots.

Well said. The price for starting pitching in general is craaaaaazzzy high. When you start talking top of the rotation pitching, the price is astronomical!

His biggest problem isn't his arm/arm strength, or locating pitches. His problem (like Ricky) is between the ears...plain and simple, he's soft. Over the past week we've heard John Gibbons basically say as much. Greg Zaun, Dirk Hayhurst, Jack Morris, and Jeff Blair have followed suit...where there's smoke, there's fire.

He has all the talent in the world. We need to give him every opportunity to figure it out. I suggest a heavy dosage of the Don Cherry "Rock Em, Sock Em" series, followed by the video of Steve Nash putting his own nose back into place.

[Santoki]

With the value of top of the rotation starters, it'd be a huge failure to get rid of him or convert him when he has the potential to be one.

Even if it's only like a 20% chance, we aren't that deep as far as pitchers go and his talent level is still there, he's just missing spots.

I said this in the injury update thread, but I've pretty much closed the book on him as being a successful starter. I don't think we can rely on him to be a top of the rotation starter. However, when it comes to this organization, if they gave Dustin McGowan 4 years worth of chances (with much less of a track record), then Morrow's leash will be incredibly long. Maybe we'll see him back in September for a late season run...

[Tyrone Slothrop]

He's been healthy enough the last 3 season to combine for 9.3 fWAR.
No reliever has been worth more than 7.7 over that stretch.
Mariano Rivera's best 3 season stretch was 8.1.

He's a starter, and a good one. Injuries may always be a concern, but it would be ridiculous to try to turn him into a reliever.

[flatjacket1]

I said this in the injury update thread, but I've pretty much closed the book on him as being a successful starter. I don't think we can rely on him to be a top of the rotation starter. However, when it comes to this organization, if they gave Dustin McGowan 4 years worth of chances (with much less of a track record), then Morrow's leash will be incredibly long. Maybe we'll see him back in September for a late season run...

I think that's extremely foolish. Since being converted to a starter with the exception of this year, (so while he was adjusting to a new team, new position, new coaches so on and so fourth) he has pitched 450 innings in 3 years (150 innings a year), with a 4.16 ERA, 489 strikeouts, 1.270 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 1 balk, 7.9 H/9.

He's proven to be elite. It's up to you though, you can take the 450 innings from the last 3 years, or the 54 innings this year.

And btw, I don't consider a 4.71 ERA and 350+ innings over a players 23-26 year old seasons a bad stint.

Blame the Jays as much as you want for giving a highly touted young arm a chance in the big leagues (350 innings) with decent results (I'd take his numbers as a #5 starter), but I don't see how Morrow is related at all he is MUCH more proven.

Morrow is also 28 and under team control. If you guys want to kick and scream trade him sure that's one thing (while his value is at its lowest)

In terms of fWAR, between 2010 and 2012 (the 3 season Morrow was with Toronto and in the process of converting to a starter) the 25-27 year old ranked 31st in the freaking league, with 9.3 fWAR

Note: The more innings you pitch, the more chance you get to increase fWAR.
Here are some of the notable guys he was better than during that stretch:


30. R.A. Dickey, 616 innings
31. Brandon Morrow, 4.16 ERA, 450 innings
32. Mark Buehrle, 618 innings
47. Rick Porcello, 521 innings
49. Trevor Cahill, 604 innings
51. Jon Niese, 521 innings

So according to fWAR, Morrow has almost out pitched R.A. Dickey, in less innings.

But not, the Mariners were right, make him a reliever then trade him.

[Santoki]

I said this in the injury update thread, but I've pretty much closed the book on him as being a successful starter. I don't think we can rely on him to be a top of the rotation starter. However, when it comes to this organization, if they gave Dustin McGowan 4 years worth of chances (with much less of a track record), then Morrow's leash will be incredibly long. Maybe we'll see him back in September for a late season run...

I think that's extremely foolish. Since being converted to a starter with the exception of this year, (so while he was adjusting to a new team, new position, new coaches so on and so fourth) he has pitched 450 innings in 3 years (150 innings a year), with a 4.16 ERA, 489 strikeouts, 1.270 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 1 balk, 7.9 H/9.

He's proven to be elite. It's up to you though, you can take the 450 innings from the last 3 years, or the 54 innings this year.

And btw, I don't consider a 4.71 ERA and 350+ innings over a players 23-26 year old seasons a bad stint.

Blame the Jays as much as you want for giving a highly touted young arm a chance in the big leagues (350 innings) with decent results (I'd take his numbers as a #5 starter), but I don't see how Morrow is related at all he is MUCH more proven.

Morrow is also 28 and under team control. If you guys want to kick and scream trade him sure that's one thing (while his value is at its lowest)

In terms of fWAR, between 2010 and 2012 (the 3 season Morrow was with Toronto and in the process of converting to a starter) the 25-27 year old ranked 31st in the freaking league, with 9.3 fWAR

Note: The more innings you pitch, the more chance you get to increase fWAR.
Here are some of the notable guys he was better than during that stretch:


30. R.A. Dickey, 616 innings
31. Brandon Morrow, 4.16 ERA, 450 innings
32. Mark Buehrle, 618 innings
47. Rick Porcello, 521 innings
49. Trevor Cahill, 604 innings
51. Jon Niese, 521 innings

So according to fWAR, Morrow has almost out pitched R.A. Dickey, in less innings.

But not, the Mariners were right, make him a reliever then trade him.

I'm not sure why you went on this rant. I never said to turn him into a reliever. I just said that I've closed the book on him being a top end starter. He's just not durable enough to be a legitimate top of the rotation guy. He's got all the "stuff" in the world, but you can't count on him to be healthy enough to help you. Like I said, if McGowan got 4 years, then Morrow's leash is as long as his arm is still attached to his shoulder. I'm fine with that, but they need to find someone else from somewhere (and I realize this is difficult) because Morrow can't and shouldn't be slotted in as a #1 or #2 guy any more.

[flatjacket1]

I'm not sure why you went on this rant. I never said to turn him into a reliever. I just said that I've closed the book on him being a top end starter. He's just not durable enough to be a legitimate top of the rotation guy. He's got all the "stuff" in the world, but you can't count on him to be healthy enough to help you. Like I said, if McGowan got 4 years, then Morrow's leash is as long as his arm is still attached to his shoulder. I'm fine with that, but they need to find someone else from somewhere (and I realize this is difficult) because Morrow can't and shouldn't be slotted in as a #1 or #2 guy any more.

You claim to have read my post but still deny the fact that he was a top 40 pitcher over the span of 3 seasons, despite lower inning counts.

Durability is so overplayed, what it should really be called is luck. Does he just walk in a way that injuries are more prone to him? Does he do MMA in his spare time?

If Morrow can't be a #1 or #2 guy, neither can any guy on the list below him.

You clearly just let 10 starts go to your head. I never heard you saying ANY of this last season.

[Santoki]

I'm not sure why you went on this rant. I never said to turn him into a reliever. I just said that I've closed the book on him being a top end starter. He's just not durable enough to be a legitimate top of the rotation guy. He's got all the "stuff" in the world, but you can't count on him to be healthy enough to help you. Like I said, if McGowan got 4 years, then Morrow's leash is as long as his arm is still attached to his shoulder. I'm fine with that, but they need to find someone else from somewhere (and I realize this is difficult) because Morrow can't and shouldn't be slotted in as a #1 or #2 guy any more.

You claim to have read my post but still deny the fact that he was a top 40 pitcher over the span of 3 seasons, despite lower inning counts.

Durability is so overplayed, what it should really be called is luck. Does he just walk in a way that injuries are more prone to him? Does he do MMA in his spare time?

If Morrow can't be a #1 or #2 guy, neither can any guy on the list below him.

You clearly just let 10 starts go to your head. I never heard you saying ANY of this last season.

Are you serious? Check out my post history (if that's possible) or ask Randle (we've argued this the past 2 years but I'd venture he's closer to siding with me now) and you'll know that I haven't ever been a Morrow fan. He's way too Jekyll & Hyde for me and you can find any advanced stat that you want, but outside of the first 8 weeks of last season (of course before inevitably hitting the shelf for 2.5 months), he's been an absolute enigma. And durability isn't overrated. Give me a guy like Buerhle, who has worse advanced stats, but will actually go out there every 5 days and give you a chance to win most of the time versus a guy who's on the DL 6-8 weeks into the season and then makes his return when there's nothing to play for.

I watch this team almost every single day every year and while I may not be able to quote xFIP and fWAR, I'm well aware of Morrow's history with this team. He's been great in spurts, extremely wild and hittable in others, but will always be remembered as a pitcher with a ton of potential and "stuff", but could never stay healthy long enough to ever really put it together. When Morrow is back, I'll be happy to have him back in the rotation because he's obviously a better option than Wang or Rogers (hell even Dickey), but I'll have no expectations for him to ever be the dominate ace (or even solid #2) that people were proclaiming he could be (if injuries didn't derail him which they probably will continue to do).

[Randle McMurphy]

The answer is no. Morrow had been an effective starter for three seasons until this one (and actually the team's best starter over that time by 3 wins). When he gets himself right, he will likely be one again.

The fact that he hasn't reached his potential or is prone to injury (like practically every other pitcher in baseball) doesn't mean he has no use as a starting pitcher.

[Santoki]

The answer is no. Morrow had been an effective starter for three seasons until this one (and actually the team's best starter over that time by 3 wins). When he gets himself right, he will likely be one again.

The fact that he hasn't reached his potential or is prone to injury (like practically every other pitcher in baseball) doesn't mean he has no use as a starting pitcher.

For as smart as you guys are, you're reading comprehension really can be selective. At no point did I say that he should either be a reliever or that he has no use as a starting pitcher (perhaps you were referring to OP though). My point is that at this junction in his career, and the window of this team's championship aspirations, Morrow can't be relied upon to be a #1 or #2-caliber starter. When healthy, he's solid enough (though I'm not thrilled with his progression this year) but you can't count on him to last even 2/3rds of a season (at 150 innings a year, he's missing, what, 10-12 starts a year at the very least?). So, if I'm AA, I'm not comfortable with the fact my supposed #2 (and projected ace - remember all those discussions, Randle?) can't last 10 starts without his arm feeling discomfort. So, if I'm going to improve the starting pitching, I have to now finally accept that Morrow (while showing flashes of brilliance) will most likely not be a capable top-end of the rotation starter.

[joseph235]

Morrow never had the makings of a top rotation starter. He has 2 plus pitches with mediocre command which makes him a solid number 3 starter which is what he has been the last 3 years.

Number 3 starter > top notch closer

[Raps in 4]

I'm fine with him being a 4-5 starter. Calling him a potential ace has always been a stretch.

[Lateral Quicks]

I'm comfortable having Morrow as part of the rotation. The Mariners were wrong.

[Illuminati_]

This whole board was touting him as a top rotation sp after last seasons great start..I guess now he's a rp.

[flatjacket1]

Morrow never had the makings of a top rotation starter. He has 2 plus pitches with mediocre command which makes him a solid number 3 starter which is what he has been the last 3 years.

Number 3 starter > top notch closer

Except he was 1 spot from making the top 30 between 2010 an 2012. You are basing this strictly off the last 10 starts.

After 10 starts this season - ERA:
1. Josh Johnson (4.38 ERA - Only 7 starts)
2. Dickey (4.50 ERA)
3. J.A. Happ (4.91 ERA - Only 7 starts)
4. Brandon Morrow (5.63 ERA)
5. Buehrle (5.90 ERA)

Talking about durability, look at how many starts Happ and Johnson missed. The played 30% less games than Morrow.

Lets look over the last 4 years, including this slow starts.

In fWAR, starters who pitched over 450 innings, Morrow ranks 40th.
In strikeouts/9, starters who pitched over 450 innings, Morrow ranks 1st.
In FIP, starters who pitched over 450 innings, Morrow ranks 32nd.

Saying Morrow has no realistic chance of being a top end starter is nonsense.

I'm not saying he will, I'm just saying;
a) He should NOT be converted into a reliever/closer (OP)
b) He should not be ruled out as a future front of the rotation starter (1 or 2)
c) He should not be held out of the rotation

[Randle McMurphy]

The answer is no. Morrow had been an effective starter for three seasons until this one (and actually the team's best starter over that time by 3 wins). When he gets himself right, he will likely be one again.

The fact that he hasn't reached his potential or is prone to injury (like practically every other pitcher in baseball) doesn't mean he has no use as a starting pitcher.

For as smart as you guys are, you're reading comprehension really can be selective. At no point did I say that he should either be a reliever or that he has no use as a starting pitcher (perhaps you were referring to OP though). My point is that at this junction in his career, and the window of this team's championship aspirations, Morrow can't be relied upon to be a #1 or #2-caliber starter. When healthy, he's solid enough (though I'm not thrilled with his progression this year) but you can't count on him to last even 2/3rds of a season (at 150 innings a year, he's missing, what, 10-12 starts a year at the very least?). So, if I'm AA, I'm not comfortable with the fact my supposed #2 (and projected ace - remember all those discussions, Randle?) can't last 10 starts without his arm feeling discomfort. So, if I'm going to improve the starting pitching, I have to now finally accept that Morrow (while showing flashes of brilliance) will most likely not be a capable top-end of the rotation starter.

I was responding to the OP, not anything you wrote (which I did not read). Morrow obviously can't be relied upon as some kind of top of the rotation pitcher, no. But he's definitely a valuable rotation guy.

[TheMainEvent]

Right or wrong, the 3 and a half seasons he's started for the Jays have been incredibly more valuable than Brandon League has ever been.

As for injuries making him unreliable as a top of the rotation starter... meh. I guess he's not "reliable," as the ideal top-of-the-rotation starter would usually start 30+ games a season. But it's completely subjective what that really means. Like... Chris Carpenter. He's so much more injury-prone than Morrow is -- weren't Morrow's first two seasons as a full-time starter with the Jays pretty healthy? -- but CC's one of those guys you'd say "is an ace when healthy." Wasn't he always considered a reliable top-of-the-rotation guy, despite his high number of injuries? I guess some would say yes, some would say no. I don't think there's a right answer for it as people would have different opinions about reliability. Same could be said for a guy like Josh Johnson. He's been injured more frequently than Morrow (and yes, he was slotted as the #4 guy to start the season) but he's always been considered a top-of-the-rotation guy.

[flatjacket1]

Just by the way, a reminder I'm not arguing he IS a top of the rotation starter (although according to stats he's been pretty damn close), I'm just saying that he still can be.

[kavan]

I hope he is doing the weighted ball training regiment we brought on that new trainer who helped the rest of the guys. He comes back stronger and throwing harder. His stuff is magical. Guys it doesnt matter what his ERA is we were not putting up runs like we are now back then. We could of easily with better D and more Offense got him a couple of wins as we could of for R.A and JJ.

We are playing great he would be a great fit just sliding in.