Road to 92 wins and the 2nd Wild Card

[LLJ]

I should clarify:

I'm thinking 90 could be the lowest possibility for being division winner, but went with 92 to be on the safe side. 88 wins at lowest should get one of the wild cards. That's what I meant.

So basically, I do think it should take 88 wins minimum just for a playoff spot. But I'm cutting it close here, because I honestly am not sure how the AL teams outside of the East will do.

I think the AL East division winner would likely have fewer wins this year than in previous years, simply because of how close the race will be with all 5 teams. There are no creampuffs in this division to pad win totals.

It's also my opinion that we should shoot for winning the division instead. In previous years, a wildcard would have sufficed for me, but this new one-game playoff format is too unpredictable and unsatisfying for long suffering Jays fans if we lose that one playoff game. Do we want to fight tooth and nail to get at least 3 playoff games or fight tooth and nail only to get possibly only one playoff game to end the season?

[Skin Blues]

No AL East Winner has won less than 95 games since the year 2000. The average win total over those 12 years was 98. Chances are slim to none that we'll finish first in the division with only 90 wins. There may not be any creampuffs yet but the Yankees are well on their way to becoming one and injuries can do that to anybody. The Orioles without Chris Davis and/or Manny Machado become a sub-.500 team. With so many great teams though that are already above .500, chances are good that a few will absolutely dominate out-of-division games.

And I don't think anybody shoots to win a wildcard spot. Every team shoots to win as many games as possible. It's not like they're going to just stop trying once they get 90 wins. With so many teams to pass we will have a tough time winning a wild card spot, which I'd still be happy with. And according to Fangraphs' projected standings, the AL Wild Card threshold is 85 wins, and we're projected for 83. Basically if we go on a 4 game winning streak we'd bump ourselves up into likely playoff territory. Of course along with that comes the possibility of losing 4 games in a row and being far less likely to be even close to 85 wins. So much can happen at this point that it's best to just sit back and enjoy the games.

[Avenger]

5 decent to good teams in the AL East might actually gonna suppress the amount of wins it takes to win the division. There's no one in the division that you can just completely pummell and beat up on, even outside the AL East other than the Astros there aren't any really bad teams in the AL. The Twins, Mariners and White Sox aren't good but they're not complete pushovers. Combine that with the fact there really isn't a monster in the AL East, i really don't see the AL East team winning more than 96, the low end is probably 91 with the most likely outcome being 93-94

[satyr9]

One interesting point is that while TEX and OAK have 10 games in the second half the Jays actually have 7 of their own as well. Didn't check the rest. Still, the East has the issue that if LAA bows out entirely, like it looks like it will now, it'll be tough going for the East teams to stay ahead of either out West with all their easy divisional games. If only one WC comes from the East, then it's going to be tooth and nail the whole way. I think 90 is still low for the division, although that is the current pace and no one really impresses me all that much, so it's possible and it's certainly a good thing the pace is held back right now as far as giving the Jays a chance to catch up again.

[LLJ]

No AL East Winner has won less than 95 games since the year 2000.

Right, but this is a unique year though. We have 4 teams who have been to the playoffs in the past 3 years, and one who just reloaded big time with some (presumably) proven talent. Yes, injuries are the one thing you can't foresee, but in the past 10 years, most of the teams at the bottom of the East were generally projected to be worse than the other 3-4 whether they were injured or healthy...with the exception of Boston last year.

[Skin Blues]

It's been the best division in baseball for pretty much the entirety of the past 12 seasons in which no team has won the AL East with less than 95 wins. I think that goes against the idea that a great division will beat itself up too often to have teams winning 95-100+ games. The majority of games are still out-of-division.