Davidi: Jays ready to enter pitching market

[torontoaces04]

I would kick tires on Shields. I doubt he stays with the Royals passed his current contract which comes with a $12M team option for 2014.

He gets NO run support in Kansas City and would cost less than Lee as far as us giving up assets, I woud think.

They gave up Wil Myers ++ in the off-season for Shields and Davis. I don't think he's going anywhere.

[whysoserious]

Instead of addressing pitching, I'd rather they address second base and get a guy that can defend, and get on base that has a good approach at the plate.

[Graham's Cracker]

Amazing to think at the end of Spring Training the debate was Happ over Romero and whether Rogers, Cecil, Jeffress would secure the last spots in the bullpen. Look at what we've gotten out of Cecil and Rogers while the rotation has crumbled.

[Michael Bradley]

I think there is a better chance of Johnson accepting arbitration and being in the Jays 2014 rotation than there is of him going on a good enough 2nd half run to cash in. He would be foolish to enter the free agent market coming off a 150+ IP season with an ERA above 4.00 (which seems like a likely scenario given how poor he has pitched so far against AL opponents and his velocity is not what it used to be). Even if he does much better than that over his last 10-15 starts of the season, how much will the lack of innings hurt his earning potential? I think Johnson is still a good pitcher, but if he wants to maximize his earning potential, he needs a full season (200+ IP) and at least decent performance, and taking one more stab at it in 2014 with the Jays might be better for him than testing the market and getting significantly less due to his injury shortened season.

I mean, there is some upside in going with Dickey/Morrow/Buehrle/Johnson/Happ (or Rogers/Romero) again next season, in the hopes that they stay healthy and productive for the whole season. They really have very little choice in the matter. Even if Johnson leaves, how much do they have to spend to replace him?

[Santoki]

I think there is a better chance of Johnson accepting arbitration and being in the Jays 2014 rotation than there is of him going on a good enough 2nd half run to cash in. He would be foolish to enter the free agent market coming off a 150+ IP season with an ERA above 4.00 (which seems like a likely scenario given how poor he has pitched so far against AL opponents and his velocity is not what it used to be). Even if he does much better than that over his last 10-15 starts of the season, how much will the lack of innings hurt his earning potential? I think Johnson is still a good pitcher, but if he wants to maximize his earning potential, he needs a full season (200+ IP) and at least decent performance, and taking one more stab at it in 2014 with the Jays might be better for him than testing the market and getting significantly less due to his injury shortened season.

I mean, there is some upside in going with Dickey/Morrow/Buehrle/Johnson/Happ (or Rogers/Romero) again next season, in the hopes that they stay healthy and productive for the whole season. They really have very little choice in the matter. Even if Johnson leaves, how much do they have to spend to replace him?

I wouldn't be satisfied with the status quo next season and hoping on improved production and health. This team, as currently constructed, is legitimately a last placed team in the AL East. They have to go out and improve the rotation before next season. I know it's difficult, but it has to be the priority along with a 2B and catcher.

[UN-Owen]

They're never going out and getting a guy like Lee, but they definitely need another solid 4th or 5th guy in this rotation with no sign of Happ or Morrow back any time soon.

If we get Lee then we have a solid 4th starter in Buehrle

[Skin Blues]

Lee is owed upwards of $90M over the next 3+ years. That ain't gonna happen.

[James_Raptors]

I remember hearing discussing on the Fan 590 yesterday (I believe) about the hypothetical acquisition of Hisashi Iwakuma with Lawrie and other parts going the other way.I think it would take more than that, but it was still interesting conversation.

[Michael Bradley]

I think there is a better chance of Johnson accepting arbitration and being in the Jays 2014 rotation than there is of him going on a good enough 2nd half run to cash in. He would be foolish to enter the free agent market coming off a 150+ IP season with an ERA above 4.00 (which seems like a likely scenario given how poor he has pitched so far against AL opponents and his velocity is not what it used to be). Even if he does much better than that over his last 10-15 starts of the season, how much will the lack of innings hurt his earning potential? I think Johnson is still a good pitcher, but if he wants to maximize his earning potential, he needs a full season (200+ IP) and at least decent performance, and taking one more stab at it in 2014 with the Jays might be better for him than testing the market and getting significantly less due to his injury shortened season.

I mean, there is some upside in going with Dickey/Morrow/Buehrle/Johnson/Happ (or Rogers/Romero) again next season, in the hopes that they stay healthy and productive for the whole season. They really have very little choice in the matter. Even if Johnson leaves, how much do they have to spend to replace him?

I wouldn't be satisfied with the status quo next season and hoping on improved production and health. This team, as currently constructed, is legitimately a last placed team in the AL East. They have to go out and improve the rotation before next season. I know it's difficult, but it has to be the priority along with a 2B and catcher.

That is why I think Cliff Lee should be the target rather than more #4 starters. We know Lee can pitch in the AL, he has been a #1 calibre starter since 2008, and is signed for three more years which meshes with the contracts of Bautista, Encarnacion, Dickey, etc. The issue with him is the amount of money he is owed and what it would take to get him. I believe he also has a NTC, which could present an issue. But he would be my target because you are not going to win the AL East by adding bottom of the rotation starters. If you are going to go for it, then go all-in. If that means you end up with the worst farm system in baseball for 2-3 years, fine. This team is going to have to rebuild the hard way in 3 years anyway when all their contracts expire (or the players decline). Might as well try to win a World Series between now and then.

Of course, how much the Jays have to spend over the next few years is also a big issue. Rogers is going to have to increase payroll even more just to bring back the same team next year, nevermind getting improvements. The rotation is an issue, but so is 2B, 1B/DH (depending on what they do with Lind), and catcher (although I think JPA will be a Jay for a while, unfortunately).

In hindsight, that second guaranteed year given to Melky was a huge mistake. He is not worth $8M. A good risk to take for one year, but the second year (while it had some upside if Melky was producing) looks terrible now.

[Strav]

I'd like to see us take a shot at Yovani Gallardo. Under achieved this year, has 11 million due next year and a team option of 13 mill for 14-15 with a team buyout of 600k. Not to mention Doug Melvin and Gord Ash are running the team, so there's always some open dialogue with the Brewers.

He's underachieving because he's quickly losing velocity...his fastball is down 2 MPH over the past two seasons, his strikeout rate has bottomed out, and he's getting hammered. The sinker that has supplanted his four-seamer doesn't seem to sink much, either, which is scary when you're talking about a move to the AL East.

agree - no way at Yovani - he's getting shelled in the NL with the velocity drop, and you can't forget his behavior outside of the ballpark.

would love to c*ock block the BoSox with Garza.

[LBJSeizedMyID]

As much as I like Iwakuma, his strikeouts have gone down each month (8.8/7.8/6.9), and the LOB% have gone down each month as well. I'm still a teeny tiny bit skeptical given he doesn't throw very hard. If you have to give up a Lawrie, I'd want Lee.

Gallardo's issue is further compounded with him not being able to find the strike zone all of a sudden.

Most realistic guy is Peavy in my mind, and maybe make a play for Beckham while you're at it. Kenny Williams seems to have a preference for guys close to the majors - perhaps a package of Drabek, Bonifacio, Hutchison + prospect could tempt them, who knows.

Still think Garza is the Jays preference though and make a play for Jackson while we're at it.