Plan the Parade: Keri says we're winning the east.

[Fairview4Life]

Ignore all of the qualifying language.

7. Toronto Blue Jays

When I first started digging into these rankings, two things immediately jumped out at me: (1) There don’t appear to be any truly great teams in the American League, and (2) there certainly aren’t any in the AL East. Although this opinion could change quickly, I currently like the Jays just a little bit more than the field. The additions of Donaldson and Martin give Toronto two more potent bats and two fantastic glovemen. That second point is a big deal after the Jays finished a disappointing ninth among AL teams in Baseball Info Solutions’ proprietary Defensive Runs Saved stat. On the mound, Marcus Stroman and Drew Hutchison look like rising stars, and electric homegrown arms Aaron Sanchez and Daniel Norris should get plenty of opportunities to shine, so Toronto’s run prevention could improve dramatically.

Granted, it’s not all smiles and sunshine in Toronto: Michael Saunders’s recent knee injury plunges the bottom three of the order into a hellish wasteland until the newly acquired outfielder returns. Then again, winning teams always catch lucky breaks on their way to glory, and the Jays already got one with Saunders now expected back sometime in April, instead of at the All-Star break as initially feared.

Look for the young arms to mesh well with Martin and for good things to keep happening in Toronto. The longest playoff drought in all of baseball might be ending soon.

Red Sox: 12
Orioles: 15
Rays: 17
Yankees: 20

[Lateral Quicks]

The East will come down to the Red Sox and Jays in my opinion, and they're two very different teams. The Jays have an elite top 5 but a few potential holes, whereas the Red Sox are solid all over but lack high impact guys. To win, the Jays will need their impact players to continue performing at a high level, and at least respectable production from the young group of Pompey, Pillar, Travis, Sanchez, and Norris. The meat-grinding top 5 can take them a long way, but they'll need help now and again.

I'd have to narrowly give it to the Red Sox as of today, but even so I think the Jays make the playoffs. If one or two of that young group exceed expectations then winning the division is very realistic.

[Skin Blues]

I know the title was sarcastic, but Jonah is certainly not saying we're going to win the division. He says we have slightly better odds to win the east than anybody else. We might be 25% odds, Red Sox maybe 20%, Orioles 20%, Yankees 20%, Tampa 15%. Even if we're the favourites, it's unlikely we have more than a 1 in 4 chance of winning the division.

[Randle McMurphy]

To the 'ship.

[Santoki]

The East will come down to the Red Sox and Jays in my opinion, and they're two very different teams. The Jays have an elite top 5 but a few potential holes, whereas the Red Sox are solid all over but lack high impact guys. To win, the Jays will need their impact players to continue performing at a high level, and at least respectable production from the young group of Pompey, Pillar, Travis, Sanchez, and Norris. The meat-grinding top 5 can take them a long way, but they'll need help now and again.

I'd have to narrowly give it to the Red Sox as of today, but even so I think the Jays make the playoffs. If one or two of that young group exceed expectations then winning the division is very realistic.

This almost sounds like the prognostication from last offseason but with the Rays instead of the Sox.

[Lateral Quicks]

The East will come down to the Red Sox and Jays in my opinion, and they're two very different teams. The Jays have an elite top 5 but a few potential holes, whereas the Red Sox are solid all over but lack high impact guys. To win, the Jays will need their impact players to continue performing at a high level, and at least respectable production from the young group of Pompey, Pillar, Travis, Sanchez, and Norris. The meat-grinding top 5 can take them a long way, but they'll need help now and again.

I'd have to narrowly give it to the Red Sox as of today, but even so I think the Jays make the playoffs. If one or two of that young group exceed expectations then winning the division is very realistic.

This almost sounds like the prognostication from last offseason but with the Rays instead of the Sox.

It's true. Little did I know the Rays would lose half their team to injury and the Jays would implode post-trade deadline. Just goes to show what predictions are worth, though.

That said, I rate this team higher than last year's.

[satyr9]

This is easily the weirdest, hardest pre-season rankings I've ever seen in Baseball. It used to be sooo much easier, but the double wildcard and Hal vs. George has really let the pack jumble together. Every single team has at least one glaring hole, nobody is even close to complete.

The best AL team in his ranking, third overall, features Logan **** Morrison at first base. I'm not arguing he's wrong, but it's insane a team with that kind of hole would even merit a cursory glance for best in the AL, let alone be justifiable.

About the only thing I think one can safely do is rank MIN at the bottom of the AL, and I quite like MIN for the near future, just not this year. After that, there's a few teams I don't think you can rank as playoff teams today, and a few more I couldn't drop to the bottom 5, but the exact ordering could be just about anything.

[Schad]

Yeah, I don't think that at any point in many years I can remember the American League being such a nougaty cluster of fk. I'd personally put the Sox ahead of the Jays, but it comes down to one's opinions on the respective rotations, and those seem to vary wildly at the moment.

Perhaps this is the year that we finally get my dream scenario: an eight-team tie on 85 wins that forces roughly two weeks of one-game playoffs.

[MikeM]

Sox have a nice lineup but Farrell's a moron and they have no pitching.

One of Betts or Castillo is probably gonna end up in AAA because Victorino needs to start in RF. And then they'll probably give Craig some of Napoli's ABs to watch him hit .200. And one of Sandoval or Hanley is going to get hurt.

[savierdcglobe]

I've been tricked into having orgasmic fanfare with the jays before so I am going to wait until I watch the first 3 months of the season before I think Jays is the real deal.

[Mehar]

I am glad a lot of people are positive. If everything exceeds expectations with Pompey and Travis, and the pitching exceeds expectations, then anything is possible. Looking at realistically, they should finish around .500 if everything goes to plan. They Downgraded at LF (losing Melky to me was a big loss, and losing Saunders for God knows how long); they Downgraded by exchanging Smoak over Lind; did not address question marks at 2B, and CF; with no upgrade in the Pen and SP. Martin and Donaldson are upgrades, but the question remains how much of these upgrades will exactly be; since they did not address some other key holes. This organization lied about their payroll parameters, and Melky's cost of 3 years and 42 M to me was not a crazy contract which they could not have matched. We heard whispers from so many of the media members like Shi Davidi, McCown, Wilner, etc., how the Jays were going to very aggressive after the Donaldson trade (LOL).

We heard whispers about Shields, and even other reasonable free agent possibilities, but then we heard these same Rogers apologists tell the fanbase a short while later that Rogers "Lost Money" in 2014 and will never be a top 5 spending club, but remain 10th or 11th. After hearing that, and being disgusted with their lack of action, i said enough is enough, and spoke with my wallet and our family decided to cancel our season tickets which we had for over a decade. This off-season left a bitter taste in my mouth more than any other time i can remember. It is pathetic that this organization which has the backing of an entire country, keeps talking about "payroll parameters" and lied about its supposed 138-40 M Payroll Beeston mentioned, which stands at 128 M today. It is pathetic that they have one of the richest ownership groups in all of pro sports, but cannot kick in another 15-20 M to end the longest playoff drought in pro sports which stands at 22 years. It is what it is. Wish them good luck this year, and maybe playing meaningful baseball in September will bring my excitement back; however i have no real interest left in this team anymore. Wish everyone in this forum all the best going forward.

[Komodo]

I am glad a lot of people are positive. If everything exceeds expectations with Pompey and Travis, and the pitching exceeds expectations, then anything is possible. Looking at realistically, they should finish around .500 if everything goes to plan. They Downgraded at LF (losing Melky to me was a big loss, and losing Saunders for God knows how long); they Downgraded by exchanging Smoak over Lind; did not address question marks at 2B, and CF; with no upgrade in the Pen and SP. Martin and Donaldson are upgrades, but the question remains how much of these upgrades will exactly be; since they did not address some other key holes. This organization lied about their payroll parameters, and Melky's cost of 3 years and 42 M to me was not a crazy contract which they could not have matched. We heard whispers from so many of the media members like Shi Davidi, McCown, Wilner, etc., how the Jays were going to very aggressive after the Donaldson trade (LOL).

We heard whispers about Shields, and even other reasonable free agent possibilities, but then we heard these same Rogers apologists tell the fanbase a short while later that Rogers "Lost Money" in 2014 and will never be a top 5 spending club, but remain 10th or 11th. After hearing that, and being disgusted with their lack of action, i said enough is enough, and spoke with my wallet and our family decided to cancel our season tickets which we had for over a decade. This off-season left a bitter taste in my mouth more than any other time i can remember. It is pathetic that this organization which has the backing of an entire country, keeps talking about "payroll parameters" and lied about its supposed 138-40 M Payroll Beeston mentioned, which stands at 128 M today. It is pathetic that they have one of the richest ownership groups in all of pro sports, but cannot kick in another 15-20 M to end the longest playoff drought in pro sports which stands at 22 years. It is what it is. Wish them good luck this year, and maybe playing meaningful baseball in September will bring my excitement back; however i have no real interest left in this team anymore. Wish everyone in this forum all the best going forward.

[Schad]

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings. ... b&date=pre

Fangraphs' playoff odds (which don't like us as much as Keri, record-wise) have us at 21.9% to win the division, 41.3% to make the playoffs, the sixth-best odds among AL teams.

For the sake of completeness, the top eight are:

Mariners - 66.9%.
Red Sox - 65.0%.
Angels - 58.1%.
Indians - 54.8%.
Tigers - 50.5%.
Blue Jays - 41.3%.
A's - 33.8%.
Yankees - 30.1%.

[Schad]

This organization lied about their payroll parameters, and Melky's cost of 3 years and 42 M to me was not a crazy contract which they could not have matched.

Disagree; while it's not a crazy contract, I think it's a contract that would've been crazy for us. We were really bad defensively in the outfield (in this article, Tony Blagnino suggests that we graded out as the worst in the league at defending flyballs), and we're going to have at least two relatively flyball-heavy pitchers in the rotation in Dickey and Hutchison, and potentially a third in Estrada...the upgrade from Melky to Saunders, especially when paired with the switch from oddly-hobbling Rasmus to Pompey, could make quite a bit of difference in saving runs.

[Raps_Swingman]

This organization lied about their payroll parameters, and Melky's cost of 3 years and 42 M to me was not a crazy contract which they could not have matched.

Disagree; while it's not a crazy contract, I think it's a contract that would've been crazy for us. We were really bad defensively in the outfield (in this article, Tony Blagnino suggests that we graded out as the worst in the league at defending flyballs), and we're going to have at least two relatively flyball-heavy pitchers in the rotation in Dickey and Hutchison, and potentially a third in Estrada...the upgrade from Melky to Saunders, especially when paired with the switch from oddly-hobbling Rasmus to Pompey, could make quite a bit of difference in saving runs.

2 months ago I would've disagreed with you Schad. But with the addition of Donaldson to the meat of the order and the defence he brings being as good or better then Lawrie, defence in the OF was a priority with our pitching staff.

I was a big Melky fan, but with our bats 1-5, I'm favouring the defensive approach to our OF.

[Michael Bradley]

Saunders over Melky makes perfect sense from a cost and team building standpoint.

The real issue is not replacing Happ in the rotation. Maybe AA thinks he is buying low on Estrada and he can fill in that gap until Norris is ready, but a more established/better starter would have done wonders, and that starter didn't have to be Shields.

[Lateral Quicks]

I am glad a lot of people are positive. If everything exceeds expectations with Pompey and Travis, and the pitching exceeds expectations, then anything is possible. Looking at realistically, they should finish around .500 if everything goes to plan. They Downgraded at LF (losing Melky to me was a big loss, and losing Saunders for God knows how long); they Downgraded by exchanging Smoak over Lind; did not address question marks at 2B, and CF; with no upgrade in the Pen and SP. Martin and Donaldson are upgrades, but the question remains how much of these upgrades will exactly be; since they did not address some other key holes. This organization lied about their payroll parameters, and Melky's cost of 3 years and 42 M to me was not a crazy contract which they could not have matched. We heard whispers from so many of the media members like Shi Davidi, McCown, Wilner, etc., how the Jays were going to very aggressive after the Donaldson trade (LOL).

We heard whispers about Shields, and even other reasonable free agent possibilities, but then we heard these same Rogers apologists tell the fanbase a short while later that Rogers "Lost Money" in 2014 and will never be a top 5 spending club, but remain 10th or 11th. After hearing that, and being disgusted with their lack of action, i said enough is enough, and spoke with my wallet and our family decided to cancel our season tickets which we had for over a decade. This off-season left a bitter taste in my mouth more than any other time i can remember. It is pathetic that this organization which has the backing of an entire country, keeps talking about "payroll parameters" and lied about its supposed 138-40 M Payroll Beeston mentioned, which stands at 128 M today. It is pathetic that they have one of the richest ownership groups in all of pro sports, but cannot kick in another 15-20 M to end the longest playoff drought in pro sports which stands at 22 years. It is what it is. Wish them good luck this year, and maybe playing meaningful baseball in September will bring my excitement back; however i have no real interest left in this team anymore. Wish everyone in this forum all the best going forward.

Perhaps I'm too prone to drinking kool-aid, but I'm higher on this year's team than last. They added two all-star players without losing one. As others have said, Saunders is unlikely to be much of a downgrade on Melky, if any. As for the money, I expect AA was badly burned last trade deadline and this year is making sure he has extra cash available to upgrade the team if they're competitive.

We're all frustrated, and if the young guys all flame and burn it's going to turn ugly fast, but I think this will be the most competitive and entertaining club we've seen in many years.

[Santoki]

I am glad a lot of people are positive. If everything exceeds expectations with Pompey and Travis, and the pitching exceeds expectations, then anything is possible. Looking at realistically, they should finish around .500 if everything goes to plan. They Downgraded at LF (losing Melky to me was a big loss, and losing Saunders for God knows how long); they Downgraded by exchanging Smoak over Lind; did not address question marks at 2B, and CF; with no upgrade in the Pen and SP. Martin and Donaldson are upgrades, but the question remains how much of these upgrades will exactly be; since they did not address some other key holes. This organization lied about their payroll parameters, and Melky's cost of 3 years and 42 M to me was not a crazy contract which they could not have matched. We heard whispers from so many of the media members like Shi Davidi, McCown, Wilner, etc., how the Jays were going to very aggressive after the Donaldson trade (LOL).

We heard whispers about Shields, and even other reasonable free agent possibilities, but then we heard these same Rogers apologists tell the fanbase a short while later that Rogers "Lost Money" in 2014 and will never be a top 5 spending club, but remain 10th or 11th. After hearing that, and being disgusted with their lack of action, i said enough is enough, and spoke with my wallet and our family decided to cancel our season tickets which we had for over a decade. This off-season left a bitter taste in my mouth more than any other time i can remember. It is pathetic that this organization which has the backing of an entire country, keeps talking about "payroll parameters" and lied about its supposed 138-40 M Payroll Beeston mentioned, which stands at 128 M today. It is pathetic that they have one of the richest ownership groups in all of pro sports, but cannot kick in another 15-20 M to end the longest playoff drought in pro sports which stands at 22 years. It is what it is. Wish them good luck this year, and maybe playing meaningful baseball in September will bring my excitement back; however i have no real interest left in this team anymore. Wish everyone in this forum all the best going forward.

Perhaps I'm too prone to drinking kool-aid, but I'm higher on this year's team than last. They added two all-star players without losing one. As others have said, Saunders is unlikely to be much of a downgrade on Melky, if any. As for the money, I expect AA was badly burned last trade deadline and this year is making sure he has extra cash available to upgrade the team if they're competitive.

We're all frustrated, and if the young guys all flame and burn it's going to turn ugly fast, but I think this will be the most competitive and entertaining club we've seen in many years.

I think you're prone to the kool-aid if you think AA was burned last deadline in terms of cash available. He literally made no deals all last offseason so it wasn't like he burned through his cash reserve before the deadline. There just simply wasn't any available at all just like there wasn't any this year and won't likely be at the deadline. We can keep hoping and using it as a way to justify the lack of moves after the Martin and Donaldson deals but history tells us we're being foolish if we accept that. This is the team and payroll he has to win with and I don't see the board giving him the authority and money to make any further deals considering it looks like he's out along with Beeston after this season.

[Schad]

Saunders over Melky makes perfect sense from a cost and team building standpoint.

The real issue is not replacing Happ in the rotation. Maybe AA thinks he is buying low on Estrada and he can fill in that gap until Norris is ready, but a more established/better starter would have done wonders, and that starter didn't have to be Shields.

Yeah, that remains the hole that we're most likely to regret leaving unfilled. I think that we'll be adequate enough at 2B/CF/the bullpen to compete, and even to survive normal injury rates to the position players. We can even carry one subpar starter and still be pretty good (many teams do), but if we have an injury in the rotation, or someone's performance backslides, that might be that unless the kids are really good from day one.