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ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19

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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#101 » by Michael Bradley » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:08 pm

ldnk wrote:
Michael Bradley wrote:As much as I can't stand Colabello playing LF, that's about the best way to get value out of him in that role. Wait until he does something good, or the team gets the lead, and immediately sub him out.


As bad as he is defensively, Carerra is a below average defender himself. The downgrade offensively is bigger than the upgrade defensively with those subs. I'm fine if we are talking the 8th/9th inning but the 5th is stupid.

EDIT: And Carerra strikes out in his first at bat.


Colabello is horrendous defensively, which isn't surprising since he's a DH, but still. Even below average defense in LF would be an upgrade. Hell, Manny Ramirez would be an upgrade.

His offensive numbers are very, very good (while completely unsustainable), but is sitting at a negative WAR. His defense is costing the team more runs than his bat provides. If they insist on keeping him there, then taking him out of the outfield as soon as he does something positive with the bat is minimizing any damage he could provide out there. Would be nice to have a better defensive replacement than Carrera, but he's still better than CC.
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#102 » by BigLeagueChew » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:12 pm

Dang good start from Marco.
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#103 » by dagger » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:17 pm

Michael Bradley wrote:
ldnk wrote:
Michael Bradley wrote:As much as I can't stand Colabello playing LF, that's about the best way to get value out of him in that role. Wait until he does something good, or the team gets the lead, and immediately sub him out.


As bad as he is defensively, Carerra is a below average defender himself. The downgrade offensively is bigger than the upgrade defensively with those subs. I'm fine if we are talking the 8th/9th inning but the 5th is stupid.

EDIT: And Carerra strikes out in his first at bat.


Colabello is horrendous defensively, which isn't surprising since he's a DH, but still. Even below average defense in LF would be an upgrade. Hell, Manny Ramirez would be an upgrade.

His offensive numbers are very, very good (while completely unsustainable), but is sitting at a negative WAR. His defense is costing the team more runs than his bat provides. If they insist on keeping him there, then taking him out of the outfield as soon as he does something positive with the bat is minimizing any damage he could provide out there. Would be nice to have a better defensive replacement than Carrera, but he's still better than CC.


If there was a decent pitcher coming the other way, and a seller wanted Collabelo, I'm a package, I'd certainly do it. Smoke is a switch hitter, EE plays 1B, Pompey is showing signs of being ready for another go at the bigs, Saunders might not play another game this season etc. And if anyone wants Navarro, that works, too
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#104 » by ldnk » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:17 pm

Michael Bradley wrote:
ldnk wrote:
Michael Bradley wrote:As much as I can't stand Colabello playing LF, that's about the best way to get value out of him in that role. Wait until he does something good, or the team gets the lead, and immediately sub him out.


As bad as he is defensively, Carerra is a below average defender himself. The downgrade offensively is bigger than the upgrade defensively with those subs. I'm fine if we are talking the 8th/9th inning but the 5th is stupid.

EDIT: And Carerra strikes out in his first at bat.


Colabello is horrendous defensively, which isn't surprising since he's a DH, but still. Even below average defense in LF would be an upgrade. Hell, Manny Ramirez would be an upgrade.

His offensive numbers are very, very good (while completely unsustainable), but is sitting at a negative WAR. His defense is costing the team more runs than his bat provides. If they insist on keeping him there, then taking him out of the outfield as soon as he does something positive with the bat is minimizing any damage he could provide out there. Would be nice to have a better defensive replacement than Carrera, but he's still better than CC.


Colabello - +1.7 oWAR -2.0 dWAR - -0.3 WAR
Carerra - -0.1 oWAR -1.3 dWAR - -1.4 WAR

Like I said, I'm fine with defensive subs, but make the sub for an actual defensive player. Carerra isn't one.
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#105 » by BigLeagueChew » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:22 pm

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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#106 » by Schad » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:31 pm

ldnk wrote:Colabello - +1.7 oWAR -2.0 dWAR - -0.3 WAR
Carerra - -0.1 oWAR -1.3 dWAR - -1.4 WAR

Like I said, I'm fine with defensive subs, but make the sub for an actual defensive player. Carerra isn't one.


Defensive metrics aren't terribly accurate in smaller samples. That said, Fangraphs has Colabello at more than 15 runs below average in 360 innings, while Carrera clocks in at around 2 below average over around 350 innings.
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#107 » by zilby » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:34 pm

Oh, so we still brought in Osuna. Alrighty then.
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#108 » by ldnk » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:36 pm

zilby wrote:Oh, so we still brought in Osuna. Alrighty then.


I don't mind it. Important game, the Jays have an off-day tomorrow and are going out west so there is a day and a half between now and the next time he might need to come into a game.
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#109 » by BigLeagueChew » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:37 pm

nice series
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#110 » by TOStateofMind » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:41 pm

good win, couldve had all 3 too but series win will do
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#111 » by Schad » Sun Jul 19, 2015 7:56 pm

Yankees win...we're still unable to escape the gravitational pull of 4.5 back and +/- one game from .500.
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#112 » by Michael Bradley » Sun Jul 19, 2015 8:01 pm

Sanchez will be used out of the pen, according to Gibbons.

The Jays either really like Doubront, or they feel pretty confident about adding someone at the deadline. Hopefully the former. I don't want to even imagine what the cost will be to add a starter this month.
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#113 » by zilby » Sun Jul 19, 2015 10:50 pm

Michael Bradley wrote:Sanchez will be used out of the pen, according to Gibbons.

The Jays either really like Doubront, or they feel pretty confident about adding someone at the deadline. Hopefully the former. I don't want to even imagine what the cost will be to add a starter this month.

It's about preservation at this point. Sanchez is coming off an injury that's kept him out for a while from where we stand today, you don't want to take the chance of having him need to work long innings and potentially out for the whole year. Outside of that one awful inning against KC, Doubront hasn't looked half bad. Sanchez could possibly bring stability to the 'pen, the kind that Delabar and Loup haven't brought whatsoever as of late. Out of all relievers, the only one I trust at this point who could pitch a scoreless inning would be Osuna. Loup and Delabar have struggled mightily as of late, Tepera and Hendriks have struggled in high leverage, Schultz has been somewhat more sound recently.

As for your interpretation MB, I'm inclined to believe both are going to happen. I think the Jays keep Doubront around (for now) and potentially add another starter that could push back Dickey, or they wait on Stroman.

If they keep Doubront and don't trade for a starter, I'd prefer they trade for a LF so that we don't have to keep trotting out Colabello and/or Zeke on an everyday basis.

Price and Cespedes for Dickey and Colabello, who says no? ;)
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#114 » by Mehar » Sun Jul 19, 2015 11:08 pm

zilby wrote:
Michael Bradley wrote:
Price and Cespedes for Dickey and Colabello, who says no? ;)


I prefer dealing Hutchinson and Loup for Cueto and Chapman. Will be a good move for the Reds going forward. I will even include Kawasaki in the deal as well. Kawasaki will win the hearts and minds of the Reds fans.
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Post#115 » by Sifu » Mon Jul 20, 2015 1:43 am

Well I will eat my words on Estrada. He has done much better than I thought he would.
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#116 » by Michael Bradley » Mon Jul 20, 2015 1:31 pm

I don't mind Sanchez to the pen, as I think that's where he will be long-term anyway (unless he develops a consistent K pitch), but doing it when the team is a playoff long shot and are down a starter anyway seems kind of pointless. They've used him as a starter for this long. Might as well let him finish the season as one and then let a sane GM who doesn't have job security issues makes a decision on Sanchez's future (maybe a new GM hires a manager/coaches who can actually help pitchers....).

If the Jays were leading the division, then yes, bring Sanchez back as a reliever. At .500 and possibly worse than that after the annual West Coast Trip to Hell, I'm not sure there's any point to it.
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ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#117 » by Santoki » Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:42 pm

Putting Sanchez back in the pen probably has more to do with his health than anything else. He went from having a bit of a sore body to missing six weeks of action. They probably feel his body won't hold up if they put him right back in the rotation, so they'll pitch him out of the pen and then try to stretch him out again in the winter.

Having him in the pen for the rest of the year is better than another DL stint in a few weeks. At worst he helps shore up the bullpen and can build some trade value. He can't do that missing more time.
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Re: 

Post#118 » by Raps_Swingman » Mon Jul 20, 2015 2:52 pm

Sifu wrote:Well I will eat my words on Estrada. He has done much better than I thought he would.

To be fair, even his biggest fans wouldn't have predicted him pitching to a 3.22(3.85 FIP). I was expecting something more around the projections of low 4 era/fip. He's been impressive and a huge help for our dust heap rotation.
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#119 » by Michael Bradley » Mon Jul 20, 2015 4:22 pm

Is there really any difference between Sanchez and Schultz at this point? Gibbons refuses to use Hendriks, and he's likely better than Sanchez will be short-term. I just don't see the point as the pen has already corrected itself, it's just that Gibbons has no idea who is good and who isn't. Having Sanchez take a spot and bumping someone like Hendriks or Delabar down the depth chart likely won't make a difference at all.

The injury risk is a valid reason, but in that case, option him down and keep him stretched out as a starter in the minors while closely monitoring his workload. I don't see why he has to be up at all if it's not in the rotation.

I don't even like Sanchez as a starter, and I think this move is a little suspect. Gibbons will actually use him in high leverage spots, so that might be some motivation, but it's another pointless short-term move that doesn't really help the prospect, which has become a trend (Castro, Osuna, Norris, Pompey, etc).
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Re: ST: Rays @ Blue Jays - July 17-19 

Post#120 » by Trilogy » Mon Jul 20, 2015 5:54 pm

Meh. Sanchez's peripheral's are a ticking time bomb anyways. I probably have more faith in Doubront than Sanchez as a starter down the stretch for the season.

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