ST: Blue Jays @ Mariners - July 24-26

[Randle McMurphy]

As opposed to beating into the ground the fact that MB stated that any hope could be put to rest, rather than the more mathematically correct "while it's exceedingly unlikely at this juncture, we must reserve a few percent of hope for extreme outlier situations"?

I didn't beat anything to the ground. I responded to a silly statement (the Jays obviously still have "hope" to win the East, about 1 in 7 teams in our position win the division) and you chose to turn it into an even sillier argument for no good reason that I can see.

What the heck are we discussing here? The Jays are 7 games back of a better team with 60 games to go. The chances are not good. If it's even 10% I'd be shocked. You really got bent out of shape for me saying it's not going to happen?

Bent out of shape? I'm not the guy here making silly statements borne solely out of frustration that hope died on a July 26 afternoon.

[Randle McMurphy]

This is the time of year when all the one-run losses and poor management decisions sting the most. This team could easily have 3-4 wins under their belt, in which case we'd probably be having a different discussion right now.

If only it wasn't for Gibbons and that damn Pete Walker. Should have had these guys pitching better in clutch situations from Day 1.

[Lateral Quicks]

This is the time of year when all the one-run losses and poor management decisions sting the most. This team could easily have 3-4 wins under their belt, in which case we'd probably be having a different discussion right now.

If only it wasn't for Gibbons and that damn Pete Walker. Should have had these guys pitching better in clutch situations from Day 1.

The season was lost when Gibby elected not to use Castro in every single game. That way Castro would have improved his stamina and given us 1-2 innings of lights out relief every single game.

Gibby then compounded his error by not recognizing the true value of Jeff Francis. He clearly wasn't used in enough tight games. I dare say we'd have more wins right now if Francis was used in more high leverage situations.

And Walker should be the last to go, what with the bullpen and starting rotation so dramatically exceeding expectations. I mean, it's clearly not luck that our pitching is this good; it's a ~100 game sample after all. The franchise would be silly to not give Walker a big extension so that he can nourish all the precious young arms coming down the pipe that we'll be depending on for the next decade.

Gee, this sarcasm thing is fun, Randle. Except mine is based on facts/results.

[Randle McMurphy]

This is the time of year when all the one-run losses and poor management decisions sting the most. This team could easily have 3-4 wins under their belt, in which case we'd probably be having a different discussion right now.

If only it wasn't for Gibbons and that damn Pete Walker. Should have had these guys pitching better in clutch situations from Day 1.

The season was lost when Gibby elected not to use Castro in every single game. That way Castro would have improved his stamina and given us 1-2 innings of lights out relief every single game.

Gibby then compounded his error by not recognizing the true value of Jeff Francis. He clearly wasn't used in enough tight games. I dare say we'd have more wins right now if Francis was used in more high leverage situations.

And Walker should be the last to go, what with the bullpen and starting rotation so dramatically exceeding expectations. I mean, it's clearly not luck that our pitching is this good; it's a ~100 game sample after all. The franchise would be silly to not give Walker a big extension so that he can nourish all the precious young arms coming down the pipe that we'll be depending on for the next decade.

Gee, this sarcasm thing is fun, Randle. Except mine is based on facts/results.

Yep, should have thrown 25M at Joe Maddon while we had the chance. Aaron Loup, Liam Hendriks, Brett Cecil, Ryan Tepera, and Steve Delabar wouldn't be blowing games left and right if they were pitching under a true leader of men like Joe. And Pete Walker was also only a major league journeyman, what could he possibly know about pitching? Pat Hentgen at least was a Cy winner. The job should have been his all along.

AA's just been asleep at the wheel all these years. If it wasn't for his inactivity in this regard, the season might not already be over on July 26. Alas, here we are.

[JaysRule15]

Playing Goins instead of Travis just bugged me. I don't buy this Travis resting BS. We have an off day tomorrow. Travis could've rested then. Dude's been on the DL for half the season anyway. If you want to play Goins, then put him at SS and give Reyes a rest. Goins was 3-5 with a homer against Walker, so why was he trying to sac bunt in the second inning with a 3-1 lead? Who bunts in that situation? Twice Goins came up with two men on base and nobody out, and both those opportunities were wasted.

At this part of the season and based on where we're at in the standings, you go for every win and play your best lineup. It's bad enough that Travis hits ninth in the lineup and only gets 3 ABs per game.

[Randle McMurphy]

Playing Goins instead of Travis just bugged me. I don't buy this Travis resting BS. We have an off day tomorrow. Travis could've rested then. Dude's been on the DL for half the season anyway. If you want to play Goins, then put him at SS and give Reyes a rest. Goins was 3-5 with a homer against Walker, so why was he trying to sac bunt in the second inning with a 3-1 lead? Who bunts in that situation? Twice Goins came up with two men on base and nobody out, and both those opportunities were wasted.

At this part of the season and based on where we're at in the standings, you go for every win and play your best lineup. It's bad enough that Travis hits ninth in the lineup and only gets 3 ABs per game.

Have no problem with Travis getting a day off. That has to happen over the course of a season. I don't like Goins bunting with a lead much (although he really sucks at hitting, so even then I understand it). 9 hitters do bunt in that spot all the time in this league (and it happens on other teams far more often than with us).

[BigLeagueChew]

The Royals were 53-50 on this day last season , fighting for a wild card spot with Bruce Chen in their rotation.

[Jays4WS]

The Royals were 53-50 on this day last season , fighting for a wild card spot with Bruce Chen in their rotation.

So your saying there is a chance?

[BigLeagueChew]

The Royals were 53-50 on this day last season , fighting for a wild card spot with Bruce Chen in their rotation.

So your saying there is a chance?

Before today, Fangraphs rest of season projects for 35 wins from the Indians, 35 from the Yankees, 34 from the Mariners(damnit they just got 1) and Angels, Then 33 from the Jays, Yankees,Red Sox, White Sox, Orioles, Tigers. The Twins are expected to fall off. The trade deadline will change these projections slightly but yeah still a chance. It would take a major collapse to catch the Yankees or an injury to Pineda/Tanaka and somehow us winning about 9 or 10 / 13 of our remaining games against them.

[JoeyBats]

The Royals were 53-50 on this day last season , fighting for a wild card spot with Bruce Chen in their rotation.

I think we needed some optimism, but the Royals were also just a game back of the second wild card. A game behind the Toronto Blue Jays

[ldnk]

The Royals were 53-50 on this day last season , fighting for a wild card spot with Bruce Chen in their rotation.

They were also a mediocre offense with a really nice pitching staff when all was said and done. If the Jays could sport 4 starters with ERAs of 3.21 or better and have 5 starters with 25+ starts with an ERA then we can talk.

[Schad]

Before today, Fangraphs rest of season projects for 35 wins from the Indians, 35 from the Yankees, 34 from the Mariners(damnit they just got 1) and Angels, Then 33 from the Jays, Yankees,Red Sox, White Sox, Orioles, Tigers. The Twins are expected to fall off. The trade deadline will change these projections slightly but yeah still a chance. It would take a major collapse to catch the Yankees or an injury to Pineda/Tanaka and somehow us winning about 9 or 10 of 13 of our remaining games against them.

Shaping up to be a bizarre trade deadline, if nothing else. Four AL teams hold down playoff positions with a gap of 5+ games; most of the league is in a tightly-clustered chase pack. There's a decent possibility that there'll be teams selling while others even with/behind them are buying.

[JaysRule15]

I still think we have it in us to make one more decent run. And with Sanchez relieving, our pen just got a lot stronger. All we need now is AA getting a dependable starter who can make quality starts. Having both Doubront and Hutch in the same rotation isn't very reassuring lol.

[Santoki]

Naturally we're getting the Phillies while they're on their only hot streak of the year. Just swept the Cubs and are 9-1 over their last 10.

[wazabifuzz]

The Jays only hope at this point is to leapfrog the twins for the 1 wildcard playoff game.
To make a couple of trades to empty the farm for that 1 game for a rental against the astros, is a hard sell.

[Michael Bradley]

The Jays only hope at this point is to leapfrog the twins for the 1 wildcard playoff game.
To make a couple of trades to empty the farm for that 1 game for a rental against the astros, is a hard sell.

Selling the farm for one extra game when the Jays could conceivably get that spot by standing pat would be stupid even by Blue Jays standards. That last Wild Card spot looks like it could be won with around 82-85 wins. Even with the Jays warts and Gibbons as manager, that's not out of the question with the current roster. Just replace Doubront with someone average (Norris/Boyd) and put Pompey in left, and the team is probably upgraded without a single trade.

[Raptor_Guy]

The Jays only hope at this point is to leapfrog the twins for the 1 wildcard playoff game.
To make a couple of trades to empty the farm for that 1 game for a rental against the astros, is a hard sell.

Selling the farm for one extra game when the Jays could conceivably get that spot by standing pat would be stupid even by Blue Jays standards. That last Wild Card spot looks like it could be won with around 85 wins. Even with the Jays warts and Gibbons as manager, that's not out of the question with the current roster. Just replace Doubront with someone average (Norris/Boyd) and put Pompey in left, and the team is probably upgraded without a single trade.

Boyd? Did you miss the game he pitched against the Red Sox?

[Randle McMurphy]

The Jays only hope at this point is to leapfrog the twins for the 1 wildcard playoff game.
To make a couple of trades to empty the farm for that 1 game for a rental against the astros, is a hard sell.

Selling the farm for one extra game when the Jays could conceivably get that spot by standing pat would be stupid even by Blue Jays standards. That last Wild Card spot looks like it could be won with around 85 wins. Even with the Jays warts and Gibbons as manager, that's not out of the question with the current roster. Just replace Doubront with someone average (Norris/Boyd) and put Pompey in left, and the team is probably upgraded without a single trade.

Boyd? Did you miss the game he pitched against the Red Sox?

Doubront has also been more than fine so far (4.34 ERA/3.33 FIP/3.69 xFIP in 18.2 IP).If you're going to replace him, it might as well be for an actual upgrade. Norris (who has been struggling with command in AAA all season) and especially Boyd aren't that.

[Michael Bradley]

The Jays only hope at this point is to leapfrog the twins for the 1 wildcard playoff game.
To make a couple of trades to empty the farm for that 1 game for a rental against the astros, is a hard sell.

Selling the farm for one extra game when the Jays could conceivably get that spot by standing pat would be stupid even by Blue Jays standards. That last Wild Card spot looks like it could be won with around 85 wins. Even with the Jays warts and Gibbons as manager, that's not out of the question with the current roster. Just replace Doubront with someone average (Norris/Boyd) and put Pompey in left, and the team is probably upgraded without a single trade.

Boyd? Did you miss the game he pitched against the Red Sox?

That start was worth a demotion but he's done nothing but pitch well in the minors since then. Don't get me wrong, if it's between him and Doubront, the difference is probably negligible, but that really depends on which Doubrount we get (pre-2014 or 2014-present). Norris to me is more of a difference maker, even with his shaky command in the minors. He's been a disappointment but the talent is still there.

[BigLeagueChew]

Need a new series thread