ST: Indians @ Blue Jays August 31st-September 2nd

[Randle McMurphy]

I'm not one of these old school guys that dismiss modern day metrics but people gotta slow down a bit with the WAR. It's obviously a very important stat but it is somewhat subjective and gets pulled out way too much in these type of discussions. If a pie has 10 pieces WAR should be about 2 slices.

Yes, forget WAR (which takes into account the sum of a player's offensive and defensive contributions). It's much better to evaluate players based on absolutely nothing at all.

2011 AL WAR leader Ben Zobrist
2013 NL WAR leader Carlos Gomez

I'm just throwing those out there to show that while WAR is clearly very important metric that should be considered it obviously doesn't tell the whole story about who is the best player at any given time. I think when looking at their numbers those years it should be pretty evident that WAR is a stat that obviously has some flaws unless both were out of this world on defense when compared to their peers?

Both of those guys had tremendous career years (and yes, both were incredible defensively), but couldn't maintain that elite level of production in the years that followed. That isn't exactly unusual in baseball, nor is that an indictment of WAR as a stat at all..

[RalphWiggum]

Yes, forget WAR (which takes into account the sum of a player's offensive and defensive contributions). It's much better to evaluate players based on absolutely nothing at all.

2011 AL WAR leader Ben Zobrist
2013 NL WAR leader Carlos Gomez

I'm just throwing those out there to show that while WAR is clearly very important metric that should be considered it obviously doesn't tell the whole story about who is the best player at any given time. I think when looking at their numbers those years it should be pretty evident that WAR is a stat that obviously has some flaws unless both were out of this world on defense when compared to their peers?

Both of those guys had tremendous career years (and yes, both were incredible defensively), but couldn't maintain that elite level of production in the years that followed. That isn't exactly unusual in baseball, nor is that an indictment of WAR as a stat at all..

Look at their numbers in multiple categories, unless they were hands down by a wide margin the best defensive players in the league those seasons there is no way they were responsible for more wins than a replacement player compared to all other players. I didn't bring it up because they went nuts one year I brought it up because other players clearly had better years. Also looked at overall team WAR and that while a decent indicator of success it certainly doesn't have a direct correlation. Basically it just goes to show that WAR while certainly a factor is not some number that should be brought up like its an exact infallible mathematical equation like calculus.

[Sifu]

2011 AL WAR leader Ben Zobrist
2013 NL WAR leader Carlos Gomez

I'm just throwing those out there to show that while WAR is clearly very important metric that should be considered it obviously doesn't tell the whole story about who is the best player at any given time. I think when looking at their numbers those years it should be pretty evident that WAR is a stat that obviously has some flaws unless both were out of this world on defense when compared to their peers?

Both of those guys had tremendous career years (and yes, both were incredible defensively), but couldn't maintain that elite level of production in the years that followed. That isn't exactly unusual in baseball, nor is that an indictment of WAR as a stat at all..

Look at their numbers in multiple categories, unless they were hands down by a wide margin the best defensive players in the league those seasons there is no way they were responsible for more wins than a replacement player compared to all other players. I didn't bring it up because they went nuts one year I brought it up because other players clearly had better years. Also looked at overall team WAR and that while a decent indicator of success it certainly doesn't have a direct correlation. Basically it just goes to show that WAR while certainly a factor is not some number that should be brought up like its an exact infallible mathematical equation like calculus.

This is true of any baseball stat. But it is currently the best way of measuring value. It's not to say that it is flawless or can't be improved upon, but its the best we currently have.

You also did say WAR is like 2 slices out of 10 while also saying its a very important metric. Those statements seem contradictory as 20% isn't that important in my eyes. I think WAR is at least half of what we should base an assessment on. I'm curious what other factors you think are important to make the remaining 80% (8 slices of the pie).

[joseph227]

I'm not one of these old school guys that dismiss modern day metrics but people gotta slow down a bit with the WAR. It's obviously a very important stat but it is somewhat subjective and gets pulled out way too much in these type of discussions. If a pie has 10 pieces WAR should be about 2 slices.

Yes, forget WAR (which takes into account the sum of a player's offensive and defensive contributions). It's much better to evaluate players based on absolutely nothing at all.

2011 AL WAR leader Ben Zobrist
2013 NL WAR leader Carlos Gomez

I'm just throwing those out there to show that while WAR is clearly very important metric that should be considered it obviously doesn't tell the whole story about who is the best player at any given time. I think when looking at their numbers those years it should be pretty evident that WAR is a stat that obviously has some flaws unless both were out of this world on defense when compared to their peers?

Zobrist has been an underrated superstar and Gomez has been an all-star level player so I don't see your point.

[Raps in 4]

did anyone expect donaldson to be THIS productive for us this year though? i mean i would've been fine with trends of his previous seasons but i dont think anyone expected an mvp season out of him.

Stats guru and former Mariners assistant Tony Blengino picked him as MVP in the pre-season: http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/12555228/all-statistical-signs-indicate-josh-donaldson-post-mvp-caliber-numbers-toronto-mlb

I wasn't sure he'd beat out Trout myself, but it was definitely within the realm of possibility. The As traded us a [url=http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2015&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0]top 2 player in baseball last winter.[/url]

Pump the brakes a little. If given the choice I'm sure there are at least 4-5 position players you'd have taken over Donaldson in the same trade before hindsight. Harper, McCutchen, Goldschmidt, Stanton, Brantley, Posey? Now if you want to factor in money and control things change but to say when the trade happened you thought we just got the second best player in baseball period, I doubt you really believed that at the time. Could name a few more but obviously age is a factor.

JD was better than most of those players at the time of the trade.

[Raps in 4]

I listed 6 guys at the time a lot of people would have taken ahead of him when giving up the same pieces, I didn't list 20. I don't want to get into some stupid argument as I really respect your views and opinions but I don't think you read my post that thoroughly. I said top 2 was a stretch, nothing more.

Considering he was 3rd in WAR between 2013-2014 behind only Trout and McCutch, I'm not sure it was. Now I would have taken a guy like Bryce Harper over Donaldson in such a trade for the same pieces, but that's because he projects to be a HOF outfielder at his age, not because he was in any way a better player last winter than Donaldson.

I think we are pretty much on the same page here except there a few other guys "at the time" I would have preferred over JD if we are not factoring in salary. I'd guess there is major league GM's that would have taken a few other players over him too?

Most GMs would have taken JD.

[Raps in 4]

I'm not one of these old school guys that dismiss modern day metrics but people gotta slow down a bit with the WAR. It's obviously a very important stat but it is somewhat subjective and gets pulled out way too much in these type of discussions. If a pie has 10 pieces WAR should be about 2 slices.

Yes, forget WAR (which takes into account the sum of a player's offensive and defensive contributions). It's much better to evaluate players based on absolutely nothing at all.

2011 AL WAR leader Ben Zobrist
2013 NL WAR leader Carlos Gomez

I'm just throwing those out there to show that while WAR is clearly very important metric that should be considered it obviously doesn't tell the whole story about who is the best player at any given time. I think when looking at their numbers those years it should be pretty evident that WAR is a stat that obviously has some flaws unless both were out of this world on defense when compared to their peers?

JD has been top 3 in WAR 3 years in a row now. That isn't some anomaly, it's a trend.

[The_Hater]

Can't believe some personal little squabble with JD was enough for him to trade an at the time top 10 player in the league for middling pitchers an unproven prospect an an injury prone Lawrie. In Billy's defense nobody could have seen JD being this good and I still think Lawrie will turn out to be an above average big leaguer if he can stay healthy.

JD was 3rd in WAR in MLB between 2013-2014. If Billy didn't know he could be this good, he wasn't paying attention.

I'm not one of these old school guys that dismiss modern day metrics but people gotta slow down a bit with the WAR. It's obviously a very important stat but it is somewhat subjective and gets pulled out way too much in these type of discussions. If a pie has 10 pieces WAR should be about 2 slices.

Sorry Ralph but this is one of the dumbest things I've ever seen written on this site.

Your opinion is subjective, WAR is the complete opposite of subjective. You somehow got that 100% wrong in your post.

[RalphWiggum]

Both of those guys had tremendous career years (and yes, both were incredible defensively), but couldn't maintain that elite level of production in the years that followed. That isn't exactly unusual in baseball, nor is that an indictment of WAR as a stat at all..

Look at their numbers in multiple categories, unless they were hands down by a wide margin the best defensive players in the league those seasons there is no way they were responsible for more wins than a replacement player compared to all other players. I didn't bring it up because they went nuts one year I brought it up because other players clearly had better years. Also looked at overall team WAR and that while a decent indicator of success it certainly doesn't have a direct correlation. Basically it just goes to show that WAR while certainly a factor is not some number that should be brought up like its an exact infallible mathematical equation like calculus.

This is true of any baseball stat. But it is currently the best way of measuring value. It's not to say that it is flawless or can't be improved upon, but its the best we currently have.

You also did say WAR is like 2 slices out of 10 while also saying its a very important metric. Those statements seem contradictory as 20% isn't that important in my eyes. I think WAR is at least half of what we should base an assessment on. I'm curious what other factors you think are important to make the remaining 80% (8 slices of the pie).

I should have made the pie 6 slices and not 10. I would look at OBP, BA/RISP, base running, strike outs in situations where contact is needed, fielding percentage etc... I know WAR is an amalgamation of many of those things.

I called out WAR because Randle went from saying we can use WAR to evaluate a players worth or we can use nothing. I just wanted to show there is situations where the highest WAR is not always attached to the player that had the better year. Obviously all stats when put under a microscope will have their deficiencies.

[Stolen Identity]

I'm not much of an advanced stats guru myself, but I can use pretty much all these stats in context and understand that Donaldson was going to have a fine career.

Nothing much else to continue on, just use context.

[I_Like_Dirt]

20% isn't that important in my eyes

Uhhh... disagree about the value of WAR all you want, but this statement runs very incongruous to your implication that you want to value statistical evidence. This of what an added 20% is to a batting average, for example. I'm not really so sure suggesting 20% isn't all that significant is a great way to demonstrate your statistical wherewithal - 20% is a rather significant amount, unless a person believes that there should only be 2 factors involved in a comparison and it's a straight one or the other. In this particular case, suggesting that WAR should be about 20% of the equation likely still means it is either the most significant factor, or one of the most significant factors. I mean, teams may (probably - the Cards don't hack databases for nothing) have better statistical models than WAR that aren't available to the public. I have no clue how WAR should or shouldn't factor into any MVP debate, but I'd be careful about deciding that a single stat is better than the remaining stats combined - in this case it might be and that's a worthwhile consideration, but it's also worthwhile to consider that it might not be.