SOTD: Gibbons is one of the worst bullpen managers

[Randle McMurphy]

Good analysis. But tallying his mistakes, we have:

1. Not using Liam enough
2. Not using Lowe enough
3. Using Loup against righties
4. Using Sanchez against lefties
5. Using Hawkins in high leverage too much
6. The Castro debacle

Except, given proper context, most of those aren't exactly mistakes.

I don't know where the narrative has come from that Mark Lowe wasn't used enough, but Lowe was the 4th guy on Gibbons' bullpen hierarchy behind Osuna, Cecil, and Sanchez (as he should have been) and was used regularly and appropriately in high leverage situations throughout his time with the team considering that position.

Aaron Loup was restricted to lefties in the 2nd half once the team added a bullpen full of guys (Sanchez, good Cecil, Lowe, Hawkins) far more capable than him against them and once it became apparent that he could not be as effective against righties as he had been in past years. The circumstances changed completely from the 1st half of the season when he was used solely out of necessity.

Aaron Sanchez has been good against lefties out of the bullpen in his career and his insertion as the defacto 8th inning guy worked (where he faced both lefties and righties very successfully) and coincided with one of the team's best runs in the history of the franchise, so I'm not sure how that was a problem at all.

LaTroy Hawkins was a good reliever all season (3.26 FIP combined for both Colorado and Toronto) until he got hurt at the end of August. Before that, he was used in high leverage situations as he should have been and it worked out fine. After that, he almost ceased to be used at all (only six times in September/October) and when he did not in particularly high leverage situations at all. Not sure how there could be any kind of criticism applied here.

As far as Miguel Castro, yes, Gibbons trusted him in a few too many appearances beyond the point where it became obvious that he wasn't good. It's safe to say that was a mistake and I said as much at the time. That saga, of course, was also part of a greater organizational experiment involving both Castro and Osuna (due to AA not having added any good RPs in the offseason) that was unquestionably a resounding success for the 2015 Jays.

On the whole, though, it seems like an awful lot of reaching and nitpicking that had a negligible effect. Again, if you're looking for a major reason why Gibbons ranked so low in this stat compared to other managers (and compared to himself in the prior two years), it was how he treated a very good statistical pitcher in Hendriks due to his high leverage failings. Because without that large exception, there was really nothing out of the ordinary with Gibbons' usage of his best relievers (Osuna, Cecil, Sanchez, Lowe).

[Kurtz]

Aaron Loup was restricted to lefties in the 2nd half once the team added a bullpen full of guys (Sanchez, good Cecil, Lowe, Hawkins) far more capable than him against them and once it became apparent that he could not be as effective against righties as he had been in past years. The circumstances changed completely from the 1st half of the season when he was used solely out of necessity.

When has Loup ever been effective against righties? His 3-year splits prior to this season had him allowing an OPS of .760 vs righties compared to .575 to Lefties. It seems Gibbons was the last guy in Toronto to figure this out.

As far as Lowe, he should have been higher in the pecking order than Sanchez. I believe Lowe pitched a total of 1 inning in the Texas series, for instance.

As far as Latroy, my biggest beef was with us using him ahead of Liam in the extra innings of game 2 against Texas. We had one of our best relievers, capable of going 3+ innings available...and Gibbons went with Latroy instead, who promptly blew the game.

Frankly, Gibbons playoff bullpen management alone was a horror show. From the absurdity with Price, to not relying on Liam until late in the KC series, to hardly using Lowe against Tex, to repeatedly using Sanchez against lefties and and Loup against righties. Granted, he was in a tough spot with no lefty against KC, but still...far from ideal.

[Randle McMurphy]

When has Loup ever been effective against righties? His 3-year splits prior to this season had him allowing an OPS of .760 vs righties compared to .575 to Lefties. It seems Gibbons was the last guy in Toronto to figure this out.

In 2012, Loup allowed a .638 OPS against RHBs in 14 IP. In 2013, he allowed a .776 OPS against RHBs in 41.1 IP. And in 2014, he allowed a .695 OPS against RHBs in 42 IP. So I don't know where you got your number, but it's clearly not remotely accurate.

While Loup was obviously bad against RHBs in 2015 (.831 OPS), he was fine in that regard prior to 2015. Considering that track record, Gibbons' usage of Loup in the 1st half was not an issue in the slightest. Further, he also adjusted in the 2nd half when it became obvious that Loup could not pitch as effectively against righties as he had in the past. Again, I don't see a problem.

As far as Lowe, he should have been higher in the pecking order than Sanchez.

Why exactly? Aaron Sanchez has been a dominant MLB reliever throughout his career. He allowed a .176/.245/.222 line in 2015 as a RP (.211 wOBA) to go with a career .149/.221/.191 line (.192 wOBA).

Mark Lowe, in contrast, is/was not on the same level. He allowed a .228/.276/.337 line in 2015 (.267 wOBA) to go with a .251/.329/.406 line career (.321 wOBA).

As far as Latroy, my biggest beef was with us using him ahead of Liam in the extra innings of game 2 against Texas. We had arguably our best reliever, capable of going 2+ innings easily, and our worst in Latroy available...and Gibbons went with the latter.

I don't disagree that Hendriks would have been preferable there (Hawkins was actually not the worst option in that 14th inning situation, though, that would have been Tepera), but that really has nothing to do with his usage of a good RP in Hawkins during the season relative to the rest of the bullpen (which I thought was the point).

Frankly, Gibbons playoff bullpen management alone was a horror show. From the absurdity with Price, to not relying on Liam until late in the KC series, to hardly using Lowe against Tex, to repeatedly using Sanchez against lefties and and Loup against righties. Granted, he was in a tough spot with no lefty against KC, but still...far from ideal.

We all know why the Jays did what they did with Price, we've been over it many times. They made the decision that he wasn't starting game 5 of the ALDS anyway and they wanted to secure that win and not take any chances with Dickey or the rest of the ineffective back half of the bullpen. I suppose you could criticize Gibbons/the Jays for being too cautious with that lead, but being too cautious in an elimination game is hardly the worst thing you could be in that spot. They won the game to stave off elimination and Stroman pitched well in game 5 to win the series. The horror.

As far as the rest of your bones to pick, I can't think of more than a couple of times I had any kind of issue with bullpen management in the playoffs (the Hendriks/Hawkins 14th inning situation previously mentioned and using Sanchez for one more batter than necessary in game 5 of the ALDS stand out).

Specifically, the first time that they used Lowe was against Texas in game 2 and he was terrible. He was so bad, in fact, that Loup was required to come bail him out against Hamilton. After that, he took a bit of a back seat behind the team's two best RPs (Osuna and Sanchez). He was still the 3rd guy out of the pen, but with leads on the line, they went with their two best. Hardly something worth bitching about considering Osuna and Sanchez were fantastic in October. The team itself also only blew one lead the entire postseason using that formula (Game 2 of the ALCS, which had nothing to do with the bullpen and everything to do with David Price), so I'm not sure how anyone could possibly describe it as a "horror show" either. I can only imagine what the exaggerated descriptor would have been if we were the Mets and blew four leads in the WS.

It should also be noted that Loup faced seven batters all playoffs (six of which were lefties and the other being a switch in Morales that they wanted to turn around to his much weaker side), so it seems that, not unlike a few of the others, you pulled that particular criticism out of thin air.

[Kurtz]

When has Loup ever been effective against righties? His 3-year splits prior to this season had him allowing an OPS of .760 vs righties compared to .575 to Lefties. It seems Gibbons was the last guy in Toronto to figure this out.

In 2012, Loup allowed a .638 OPS against RHBs in 14 IP. In 2013, he allowed a .776 OPS against RHBs in 41.1 IP. And in 2014, he allowed a .695 OPS against RHBs in 42 IP. So I don't know where you got your number, but it's clearly not remotely accurate.

While Loup was obviously bad against RHBs in 2015 (.831 OPS), he was fine in that regard prior to 2015. Considering that track record, Gibbons' usage of Loup in the 1st half was not an issue in the slightest. Further, he also adjusted in the 2nd half when it became obvious that Loup could not pitch as effectively against righties as he had in the past. Again, I don't see a problem.

I was looking at the split numbers for 3 years (2012-2014) on espn:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/32397/type/pitching3/aaron-loup

Looking at it closer, looks like that might be mislabeled, and those actually cover 2013-2015.


Note that despite showing massive split differences during that time, 39% of the batters Loup faced were actually righties. And we actually sent him down to the minors for failing against righties this year.


If you think that's proper handling of Loup, then perhaps we have nothing else to discuss.

[Randle McMurphy]

When has Loup ever been effective against righties? His 3-year splits prior to this season had him allowing an OPS of .760 vs righties compared to .575 to Lefties. It seems Gibbons was the last guy in Toronto to figure this out.

In 2012, Loup allowed a .638 OPS against RHBs in 14 IP. In 2013, he allowed a .776 OPS against RHBs in 41.1 IP. And in 2014, he allowed a .695 OPS against RHBs in 42 IP. So I don't know where you got your number, but it's clearly not remotely accurate.

While Loup was obviously bad against RHBs in 2015 (.831 OPS), he was fine in that regard prior to 2015. Considering that track record, Gibbons' usage of Loup in the 1st half was not an issue in the slightest. Further, he also adjusted in the 2nd half when it became obvious that Loup could not pitch as effectively against righties as he had in the past. Again, I don't see a problem.

I was looking at the split numbers for 3 years (2012-2014) on espn:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits/_/id/32397/type/pitching3/aaron-loup

Looking at it closer, looks like that might be mislabeled, and those actually cover 2013-2015.

Considering we're talking about what Loup was before 2015, that difference would seem awfully relevant here.

Note that despite showing massive split differences during that time, 39% of the batters Loup faced were actually righties.

And as I just noted, Loup was fine against righties overall prior to this season. Not great certainly, but he held them to a below average OPS in just the previous season (and in two of the previous three). Considering that track record (and being the only guy in the pen other than Cecil with any kind of MLB track record for much of the first half), why wouldn't Gibbons use him in the 1st half of 2015 the same way he had in the past, especially when the team had no bullpen depth at all?

Loup's peripherals were also quite good overall in the 1st half (9.99 K9/1.35 BB9/3.28 FIP/2.74 xFIP), which also further strengthened both the case for using him and the hope that there would be a correction to his results as the season went on.

And we actually sent him down to the minors for failing against righties this year.

We sent him down because he had become much worse against all batters. His past dominance against lefties was nowhere to be found (.310 wOBA against in 2015 compared to .251 wOBA career). He had a bad season and he paid for it.

[Skin Blues]

and Sanchez and Lowe were right behind Cecil at 1.20 and 1.10.

Lowe was arguably our best reliever, and Gibby used him frequently for mop-up duty.

Haven't had a chance to read through the article, just the replies in the thread so far. But, I did enjoy these back to back posts.

Both posters on the same side of the "Does Gibby suck or not?" argument, but one guy complaining Lowe was used in too many high leverage situations relative to Cecil, and the other complaining Lowe was used for mop-up duty too often. Just goes to show that no matter what a manager does, there are going to be people complaining about it.

I wasn't complaining that Lowe was used in too many high leverage situations. He was one of our best relievers. I gave his (and Sanchez's) in-game leverage to provide context to the difference in leverage between Osuna and Cecil. If I just said 1.65 and 1.25 then nobody has any idea how that relates to the rest of the bullpen.