ImageImageImageImageImage

Ross Atkins named GM of Blue Jays

Moderator: JaysRule15

User avatar
Indiana Jones
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,121
And1: 1,548
Joined: Feb 21, 2007
Location: Assistant Dean of Students, Marshall College, Bedford, Connecticut
Contact:

Re: Ross Atkins named GM of Blue Jays 

Post#141 » by Indiana Jones » Wed Dec 16, 2015 7:01 pm

Santoki wrote:Remember when last year we went into the season thinking that guys like Hutch, Norris, and Sanchez could stick in the rotation? Remember when we had to go through the long list of AAAA fodder highlighted by the appearances of Chien Ming Wang and Ramon Ortiz in 2013?

Why anyone would want to go back to those days is puzzling. You can make the playoffs without an ace. You can't make the playoffs trotting out crap like that 3 out of every 5 nights.

Also, the definition of mid-rotation and #4-#5s needs to be better understood. Take a look through MLB and see who everyone slots in their 4-5 positions in the rotation.

We were a terrible team for 3 straight years precisely because we had no depth. Starting pitching depth is what gives you the best chance to win. Not an ace with terrible pitchers 3-5. And when you look at how those teams with aces acquired those guys very few of them are over 30 and free agents. You develop them internally like hopefully what's happening with Marcus Stroman and what we're seeing in a guy like Noah Syndergaard. That's how you create sustainability when faced with corporate owners whose only focus is on the next quarterly report.


Fair enough, but on the spectrum from Price to Hutch, guys like Happ and Estrada have career numbers that put them on the Hutch side. If they continue to pitch like they did last year, we should be in a good place, but nothing's going to soften the blow of losing a guy like Price. Of course, Stroman is a bit of a wildcard, and could potentially be that homegrown ace we need.
User avatar
Santoki
General Manager
Posts: 7,813
And1: 2,635
Joined: Feb 16, 2007
Location: Toronto
   

Re: Ross Atkins named GM of Blue Jays 

Post#142 » by Santoki » Wed Dec 16, 2015 7:06 pm

Indiana Jones wrote:
Santoki wrote:Remember when last year we went into the season thinking that guys like Hutch, Norris, and Sanchez could stick in the rotation? Remember when we had to go through the long list of AAAA fodder highlighted by the appearances of Chien Ming Wang and Ramon Ortiz in 2013?

Why anyone would want to go back to those days is puzzling. You can make the playoffs without an ace. You can't make the playoffs trotting out crap like that 3 out of every 5 nights.

Also, the definition of mid-rotation and #4-#5s needs to be better understood. Take a look through MLB and see who everyone slots in their 4-5 positions in the rotation.

We were a terrible team for 3 straight years precisely because we had no depth. Starting pitching depth is what gives you the best chance to win. Not an ace with terrible pitchers 3-5. And when you look at how those teams with aces acquired those guys very few of them are over 30 and free agents. You develop them internally like hopefully what's happening with Marcus Stroman and what we're seeing in a guy like Noah Syndergaard. That's how you create sustainability when faced with corporate owners whose only focus is on the next quarterly report.


Fair enough, but on the spectrum from Price to Hutch, guys like Happ and Estrada have career numbers that put them on the Hutch side. If they continue to pitch like they did last year, we should be in a good place, but nothing's going to soften the blow of losing a guy like Price. Of course, Stroman is a bit of a wildcard, and could potentially be that homegrown ace we need.


There really shouldn't have been a blow to soften when we lost Price. The moment he was traded here it should have be understood that he was a rental. Some of us saw that and others once again naively believed that Rogers would change. At this point, if you've been following the team long enough, you saw it coming and moved on the moment they couldn't get Revere in from 3rd.
User avatar
OakleyDokely
RealGM
Posts: 35,962
And1: 68,172
Joined: Aug 02, 2008
Location: 416
 

Re: Ross Atkins named GM of Blue Jays 

Post#143 » by OakleyDokely » Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:09 pm

Fangraphs, Steamer, 2016 Projections, ERA / WAR:

Stroman: 3.69 / 3.4
Happ: 3.97 / 1.8
Chavez: 3.98 / 1.8
Hutchinson: 4.11 / 0.8
Dickey: 4.29 / 1.1
Estrada: 4.47 / 0.6

Chavez really comes out looking good here, at about 2 mill per WAR. But the other 3 signings this offseason (Dickey, Happ, Estrada) are a combined 3.5 WAR making a combined ~37 million, which is 10+ mill per WAR. Quite crummy.
Randle McMurphy
RealGM
Posts: 37,997
And1: 21,143
Joined: Dec 07, 2009

Re: Ross Atkins named GM of Blue Jays 

Post#144 » by Randle McMurphy » Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:26 pm

Again:

It makes little sense to use projected WAR (FIP-based) in the case of both Dickey and Estrada (considering their contact management abilities).
One flew east, one flew west, one flew over the cuckoo’s nest.
User avatar
OakleyDokely
RealGM
Posts: 35,962
And1: 68,172
Joined: Aug 02, 2008
Location: 416
 

Re: Ross Atkins named GM of Blue Jays 

Post#145 » by OakleyDokely » Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:31 pm

It's hard to find numbers that make Estrada and Dickey look good though.

Dickey will provide innings, which is a positive. Most stats point to a huge regression for Estrada. Happ is a warm body. I don't think they are getting good value for their dollars with these 3 guys.

Stroman should be very good value. Hutch is one guy who could provide big bang for buck, along with Chavez.
Randle McMurphy
RealGM
Posts: 37,997
And1: 21,143
Joined: Dec 07, 2009

Re: Ross Atkins named GM of Blue Jays 

Post#146 » by Randle McMurphy » Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:35 pm

OakleyDokely wrote:It's hard to find numbers that make Estrada and Dickey look good though.

Depends on how you define good, I guess. Using FIP/fWAR is an awful way to evaluate either one of them, though.

Stroman should be very good value. Hutch is one guy who could provide big bang for buck, along with Chavez.

Hutch has only shown himself to be bad at the major league level and completely incapable of pitching to his peripherals. He's got to make serious changes if he's going to provide much of anything in 2016. Running out of chances.
One flew east, one flew west, one flew over the cuckoo’s nest.
User avatar
OakleyDokely
RealGM
Posts: 35,962
And1: 68,172
Joined: Aug 02, 2008
Location: 416
 

Re: Ross Atkins named GM of Blue Jays 

Post#147 » by OakleyDokely » Wed Dec 16, 2015 9:38 pm

Hutch showed something in 2014. He will have to make adjustments no doubt, but he's still young enough to figure it out.

With Estrada, you have to believe in his 2015 season, otherwise, he's going to regress based on his history in the MLB.

Dickey is Dickey. You pretty much know what you're going to get from him.
User avatar
Indiana Jones
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,121
And1: 1,548
Joined: Feb 21, 2007
Location: Assistant Dean of Students, Marshall College, Bedford, Connecticut
Contact:

Re: Ross Atkins named GM of Blue Jays 

Post#148 » by Indiana Jones » Wed Dec 16, 2015 10:11 pm

Santoki wrote:
Indiana Jones wrote:
Santoki wrote:Remember when last year we went into the season thinking that guys like Hutch, Norris, and Sanchez could stick in the rotation? Remember when we had to go through the long list of AAAA fodder highlighted by the appearances of Chien Ming Wang and Ramon Ortiz in 2013?

Why anyone would want to go back to those days is puzzling. You can make the playoffs without an ace. You can't make the playoffs trotting out crap like that 3 out of every 5 nights.

Also, the definition of mid-rotation and #4-#5s needs to be better understood. Take a look through MLB and see who everyone slots in their 4-5 positions in the rotation.

We were a terrible team for 3 straight years precisely because we had no depth. Starting pitching depth is what gives you the best chance to win. Not an ace with terrible pitchers 3-5. And when you look at how those teams with aces acquired those guys very few of them are over 30 and free agents. You develop them internally like hopefully what's happening with Marcus Stroman and what we're seeing in a guy like Noah Syndergaard. That's how you create sustainability when faced with corporate owners whose only focus is on the next quarterly report.


Fair enough, but on the spectrum from Price to Hutch, guys like Happ and Estrada have career numbers that put them on the Hutch side. If they continue to pitch like they did last year, we should be in a good place, but nothing's going to soften the blow of losing a guy like Price. Of course, Stroman is a bit of a wildcard, and could potentially be that homegrown ace we need.


There really shouldn't have been a blow to soften when we lost Price. The moment he was traded here it should have be understood that he was a rental. Some of us saw that and others once again naively believed that Rogers would change. At this point, if you've been following the team long enough, you saw it coming and moved on the moment they couldn't get Revere in from 3rd.


By soften the blow, I simply mean that a rotation without Price isn't nearly as good as one with him. Nothing to do with expectations as a fan. Just in terms of talent, it's a tough hole to plug.

Return to Toronto Blue Jays