The 2016 starting rotation debate

[satyr9]

This is basically where most teams are this time of year. One rotation spot, some mediocre vet, and some younger guys with question marks vying for a spot, or two. In our case, just the one with Strodickestrhapp taking the top 4. Chavez/Hutchison/Sanchez are 5/6/7's and will battle along with potentially Osuna, not to mention the walking corpses that were Wade LeBlanc, Fausto Carmona, and Brad Penny. The chances are very slim any of the 8/9/10 guys move all the way up to #5 and start in the rotation by opening day, but they could move the needle enough to change minds on what to do with the losers of the 5/6/7 battle.

[James_Raptors]

I still think Osuna is a year away from competing for that SP spot. Assuming he's not our closer this year, I think they'll slot him into that 2-ish inning guy and in '17 an outside shot at SP role or more 2+ innings (to possibly long relief) to get him stretched out even further. That being said, I definitely believe Osuna has the greater upside and a chance to be a 1 or 2 on our staff in a couple to three years time from now.

[Raptor_Guy]

If they're not planning on using Sanchez in the bullpen then we're really gonna need another bullpen arm. Otherwise our bullpen is:

Storen
Osuna
Cecil

Then the others..
Schultz
Leon
Tepara
Delabar
Loup
Biagini?
Hernandez?

Not really a group that gives me a ton of confidence..

[The_Hater]

If they're not planning on using Sanchez in the bullpen then we're really gonna need another bullpen arm. Otherwise our bullpen is:

Storen
Osuna
Cecil

Then the others..
Schultz
Leon
Tepara
Delabar
Loup
Biagini?
Hernandez?

Not really a group that gives me a ton of confidence..

The arms that don't make the rotation will end up in the bullpen so if Sanchez is starting, Hutch and Chavez would be there too.

I think people are way too worried about this. Osuna, Sanchez and Hendricks didn't look like reliable bullpen arms for the 2015 season last January either but they were. And this doesn't even include making a small trade or picking a veteran arm up off waivers. The bullpen will be fine, we've got more than enough quality arms available with or without Sanchez being there.

[Randle McMurphy]

The FB command is a much bigger issue than the picthes IMO. He was very good in the starts last season when he had command, and poor without it.

Also his splits vs lefties are really bad, which we can't hide in the rotation. His FIP vs LHB was nearly 7 last season vs 2.56 vs RHB.

I think he should get every chance, but its unlikely that he wins the role. I'm not saying I don't want him too. He certainly has a higher ceiling than Hutch or Chavez. Although I guess Hutchinson looked pretty good in 2014, so who knows.

If he could ever command his FB as a starter, he'd probably be able to get by. It wouldn't be ideal and he'd still get hit around a bit (especially by lineups full of LHBs), but that pitch is that good. Sanchez, however, hasn't been able to throw strikes as a starter at any professional level. I don't anticipate he'll start doing so at age 23 in the majors. If they put him back in that spot, he's almost certain to end up right back in the bullpen like in 2015.

[CrookedJ]

The FB command is a much bigger issue than the picthes IMO. He was very good in the starts last season when he had command, and poor without it.

Also his splits vs lefties are really bad, which we can't hide in the rotation. His FIP vs LHB was nearly 7 last season vs 2.56 vs RHB.

I think he should get every chance, but its unlikely that he wins the role. I'm not saying I don't want him too. He certainly has a higher ceiling than Hutch or Chavez. Although I guess Hutchinson looked pretty good in 2014, so who knows.

If he could ever command his FB as a starter, he'd probably be able to get by. It wouldn't be ideal and he'd still get hit around a bit (especially by lineups full of LHBs), but that pitch is that good. Sanchez, however, hasn't been able to throw strikes as a starter at any professional level. I don't anticipate he'll start doing so at age 23 in the majors. If they put him back in that spot, he's almost certain to end up right back in the bullpen like in 2015.

Command is such a hard ting to analyze when not watching a game. Would love to review those succesfull starts with an eye to that, but stats after the fact, or even pitch tracker can't help all that much. Without knowing the intended placement of the pitches you don't know anything.

Do you buy "25 lbs of muscle" ? Does that help him at all? Maybe it leads to tweaking of mechanics that helps?

[Randle McMurphy]

Do you buy "25 lbs of muscle" ? Does that help him at all? Maybe it leads to tweaking of mechanics that helps?

Aaron Sanchez is in the "best shape of his life," you say? No, I don't think putting on weight will suddenly give him the ability to command his FB after six years of being unable to do so.

We live in a world where Marco Estrada was somehow one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2015, though, so what do I know?

[Skin Blues]

Bartolo Colon is huge and he has great control. Looks like Aaron just needs to pack on another hundred or so pounds and he'll be dominant.

[Lateral Quicks]

If they're not planning on using Sanchez in the bullpen then we're really gonna need another bullpen arm. Otherwise our bullpen is:

Storen
Osuna
Cecil

Then the others..
Schultz
Leon
Tepara
Delabar
Loup
Biagini?
Hernandez?

Not really a group that gives me a ton of confidence..

Of the others you mention, Loup was a fine reliever up until last year. Most of Tepera's peripherals suggest he'll be a good reliever going forward. So that's five. Add in one or both of Chavez and Hutchison, and the bullpen is pretty much set and looks pretty decent IMO. We could use another lefty arm, but I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

[Skin Blues]

Tepera is replacement fodder, as are Schultz, Delabar, and Leone. They're the guys you call on when somebody gets hurt, you don't rely on them from Day 1. At least Leone is interesting. Loup obviously had a lot of issues last year, too, but his peripherals are still there so I'd give him a shot. Sanchez should remain in the bullpen, and I honestly don't even trust him there. But I definitely don't trust him starting. They need to do whatever they can to get Osuna in the rotation. If that means starting him out in relief and making the jump in June or something, so be it. I'd rather they just let him start out of spring training, but that's unlikely to happen.

[Randle McMurphy]

If they're not planning on using Sanchez in the bullpen then we're really gonna need another bullpen arm. Otherwise our bullpen is:

Storen
Osuna
Cecil

Then the others..
Schultz
Leon
Tepara
Delabar
Loup
Biagini?
Hernandez?

Not really a group that gives me a ton of confidence..

Of the others you mention, Loup was a fine reliever up until last year. Most of Tepera's peripherals suggest he'll be a good reliever going forward. So that's five. Add in one or both of Chavez and Hutchison, and the bullpen is pretty much set and looks pretty decent IMO. We could use another lefty arm, but I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

Check out Venditte's numbers against lefties last year.

[Lateral Quicks]

Tepera is replacement fodder, as are Schultz, Delabar, and Leone. They're the guys you call on when somebody gets hurt, you don't rely on them from Day 1. At least Leone is interesting. Loup obviously had a lot of issues last year, too, but his peripherals are still there so I'd give him a shot. Sanchez should remain in the bullpen, and I honestly don't even trust him there. But I definitely don't trust him starting. They need to do whatever they can to get Osuna in the rotation. If that means starting him out in relief and making the jump in June or something, so be it. I'd rather they just let him start out of spring training, but that's unlikely to happen.

Here are Tepera's lines from last year:

Buffalo: 34 IP, 9.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, 0.3 HR/9, 4.2 H/9
Jays: 33 IP, 6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 2.2 HR/9, 6.3 H/9

His biggest issue in the majors was obviously the home runs. Considering his career HR/9 is 0.7, I think it likely he suffered from a case of nerves in his first major league go 'round. Since being converted to a reliever he's been pretty solid, and expect him to be better in the bigs this year than last year.

Schultz and Delabar are the types of high-powered, cheap, unpredictable arms every team tries out in the spring. Usually one or two of these types of guys have a good showing and make the team, and this year will likely be no different.

[Skin Blues]

Tepera had great results, the peripherals just don't back it up. He allowed a .169 BABIP but with a 12.5 K-BB% and 3.75 SIERA. His 2016 Steamer projection is for a 3.93 ERA and ZiPS has him at a 4.12 ERA. He's just not very good. Bo Schultz is in the same boat. Bad peripherals with an ERA buoyed by a highly unsustainable BABIP. These aren't guys to rely on. As you said, as cheap lottery tickets they're fine, but we can't expect any of them to be productive members of the bullpen. The defense and turf does a lot to deflate team BABIP but why not have a good pitcher with a deflated BABIP rather than a bunch of bad ones??

[The_Hater]

Tepera only has a small sample size against MLB hitters and that sample looks like a completely different pitcher than the one in Buffalo. I think more MLB data is needed before hes written off.

Tepera had great results, the peripherals just don't back it up. He allowed a .169 BABIP but with a 12.5 K-BB% and 3.75 SIERA. His 2016 Steamer projection is for a 3.93 ERA and ZiPS has him at a 4.12 ERA. He's just not very good. Bo Schultz is in the same boat. Bad peripherals with an ERA buoyed by a highly unsustainable BABIP. These aren't guys to rely on. As you said, as cheap lottery tickets they're fine, but we can't expect any of them to be productive members of the bullpen. The defense and turf does a lot to deflate team BABIP but why not have a good pitcher with a deflated BABIP rather than a bunch of bad ones??

[Skin Blues]

He's not written off, he's just not very good. He might become good, but so might a thousand other pitchers. His ZiPS/Steamer are based off his entire minor & major league career, not just a small stint.

[bluerap23]

If they're not planning on using Sanchez in the bullpen then we're really gonna need another bullpen arm. Otherwise our bullpen is:

Storen
Osuna
Cecil

Then the others..
Schultz
Leon
Tepara
Delabar
Loup
Biagini?
Hernandez?

Not really a group that gives me a ton of confidence..

Jenkins is another solid option.