Draft picks

[Todd01]

How will the draft picks work if Cleveland signs Jose Bautista.

[North_of_Border]

Toronto gets the 64th pick for Jose.
Cleveland gets a bargain with Jose.

Ouch.... might as well re-sign him. Maybe flip him at the deadline.

[Xaos]

Bautista in that Cleveland lineup would be scary!

Time to rebuild folks! This new regime is not interested in competing this year, or the next few years. Get used to it.

[Lateral Quicks]

Bautista in that Cleveland lineup would be scary!

Time to rebuild folks! This new regime is not interested in competing this year, or the next few years. Get used to it.

Even if true, it wouldn't be the new management's fault. AA absolutely gutted the farm. It's a testament to the new management that we made the playoffs last year. They pretty much created one of the best rotations in the league out of thin air. I think they've earned the benefit of the doubt going into next year.

I, for one, am thankful we're unlikely to be Phillies level bad for half a decade. The new regime is about sustainable competitiveness. I'm all for that.

[Schad]

Toronto gets the 64th pick for Jose.
Cleveland gets a bargain with Jose.

Ouch.... might as well re-sign him. Maybe flip him at the deadline.

Cleveland will lose the 64th pick. We'll get one in the late 20s/early 30s. It's no longer direct transfer of pick...one is magicked into being.

[Suga2Panda]

If Jose had waited until after spring training started to sign with a different team, would we still have gotten a comp pick?

[Skin Blues]

If Jose had waited until after spring training started to sign with a different team, would we still have gotten a comp pick?

Yup. He would have had to hold out until after the draft for the pick to go away.

[Cyrus]

So I don't understand why the jays paid more to resign Jose. Was there someone who was going to offer 17-18 mill next year?

Wouldn't we have been better off, him signing where ever and we getting a pick in the 25-35 range?'

Can we trade him next year, or does he have 10-5 rights still?

[Skin Blues]

Was there someone who was going to offer 17-18 mill next year?

The Indians and the Rays were, apparently. Hard to tell, either way. I thought it was a bit on the high end, but it's hard to go wrong with a one year deal even if you overpay a couple million, rather than risking a 3 year deal at a lower AAV.

Wouldn't we have been better off, him signing where ever and we getting a pick in the 25-35 range?'

The pick is worth roughly $10M, So essentially we're paying him $28M. Based on an average of ZiPS and Steamer, Bautista is worth about $23M this year, and that assumes he misses 30+ games so it's fairly conservative. Again, a bit of an overpay, but sometimes that's worth it for less risk. Especially when you're getting the best hitter on the market (Steamer projects Jose to be a better hitter than both Edwin and Cespedes). There's also a chance, albeit small, that Bautista would ahve held out until the draft in June when his market opens up since his new team wouldn't lose a pick. In which case we lose the pick entirely. We'll see how the option year is structured, but it's possible that Jose declining his end of the mutual option would also void his buyout and save us some cash, too.

Can we trade him next year, or does he have 10-5 rights still?

Still has 10-5 rights.

[dagger]

Was there someone who was going to offer 17-18 mill next year?

The Indians and the Rays were, apparently. Hard to tell, either way. I thought it was a bit on the high end, but it's hard to go wrong with a one year deal even if you overpay a couple million, rather than risking a 3 year deal at a lower AAV.

Wouldn't we have been better off, him signing where ever and we getting a pick in the 25-35 range?'

The pick is worth roughly $10M, So essentially we're paying him $28M. Based on an average of ZiPS and Steamer, Bautista is worth about $23M this year, and that assumes he misses 30+ games so it's fairly conservative. Again, a bit of an overpay, but sometimes that's worth it for less risk. Especially when you're getting the best hitter on the market (Steamer projects Jose to be a better hitter than both Edwin and Cespedes). There's also a chance, albeit small, that Bautista would ahve held out until the draft in June when his market opens up since his new team wouldn't lose a pick. In which case we lose the pick entirely. We'll see how the option year is structured, but it's possible that Jose declining his end of the mutual option would also void his buyout and save us some cash, too.

Can we trade him next year, or does he have 10-5 rights still?

Still has 10-5 rights.

While I would have preferred the pick, the value Bautista brings can also be measured in fan interest and dollars spent on tickets, merchandise. I doubt bringing him back makes that much of a difference on where the team ends up in the standings - I put more importance on the health of Marco Estrada and the state of the bullpen than I do on Jose returning - but it will help sustain fan interest through what I believe is the start of the rebuild. Basically, he hangs around for a year while some guys move up the ladder in the farm system. The time for him to leave times with a possible Donaldson trade - if the season goes south - that would bring in a high end prospect or two for the fans to get excited about. Right now, the farm system can't offer the sizzle you need (hope) to replace belief (World Series contention). A year from now, even without a Donaldson or other vet-for-prospect trades, we might have a Reid-Foley, Alford or Urena close enough that their ascension in 2018 seems likely.