Post#325 » by Lateral Quicks » Mon Apr 17, 2017 1:45 pm
Yosemite Dan wrote:Schad wrote:johanliebert wrote:what is with this infatuation with "tanking"? is it raptor fans? its way too early to make that type of decision. this isnt the NBA either where first rounders almost always are impact players.
Absolutely; being at the top of the draft matters far less in baseball than in basketball. In this case, it's more about the concern entering this season that we'd find ourselves in the middle, not good enough to compete in 2017, but also not bad enough to start moving assets aggressively.
Regarding it being too early, it is...but our playoff odds have collapsed all the same. Baseball Prospectus had us down to 12.0% entering today, Fangraphs at 18.0%, 538's Elo system at 16%. So we're in "possible, but increasingly unlikely" territory already, and another bad week could make it unrecoverable; we aren't digging ourselves out of a 4-15 hole in a difficult-looking AL East if we finish the Angels series in that position.
The Jays are good for a double digit winning streak almost every year. They pull off a 11 game run again and everything is normal again. Not saying it's likely to start this week but if this team is gonna be 8 games under .500 as their low point then 2-10 is the time to do it rather than July. It's just magnified now because it's mid April. Still a lot of games to go. I remember we were close to 10 games under .500 in late May back in the Jimy Williams days and Cito took over and we ended up winning the division.
It's the equivalent of a NFL team being 0-1 to start the season or a NBA team starting 1-5. There's lots of time to right the ship. I don't wanna sound like Wilner but it's only 12 games. And 4-15 is still only 15% of the season.
If Happ joins Sanchez on the DL, it's very difficult to envision this team going on much of a winning streak with the likes of Mat Latos and Casey Lawrence filling the void. My guess is Sanchez will be out at least a month to allow his blisters to heal. And "left elbow soreness" for a left-handed pitcher is awful news - Happ could be out for a long, long time.
This is the worst-case scenario for this team - our starting depth gets exposed and our veteran batters forget how to hit.
Nick Nurse recounting his first meeting with Kawhi:
“We could have gone forever. (Raptors management) kept knocking on the door and I was like, ‘A couple more minutes.’ Because we were really into it."