Epic Jays run still possible?

[Ong_dynasty]

Just let them play and see where we are till just before deadline.
As long as we carry on building our farm, I'm happy to see a competitive team.
Also depends on what we can get for the 3 fa we have. Is it going to be good? Will teams really pony up top prospects for them?

[Schad]

Actually - I don't think the salary outlook is much different for next year. We only have 3 significant FA's (Estrada, Liriano and Bautista).
I expect they will try to resign Estrada at 15x2-3. There is a chance Bautista comes back on his option at $17 (or, if not, they will have a significant budget for a replacement). Liriano is probably gone (Biagini has looked pretty good and some of the young bullpen arms have been pretty good as well making his transition to starting role bearable). That will actually bring our current salary commitment down next year.

Not when you include the arb-eligible players. Stroman, Donaldson, Sanchez, Osuna, Pillar and Travis will see combined raises of probably $25m or thereabouts.

And while anything is possible, I'd imagine that Estrada will get himself something in the $20m AAV range. As unconventional as he has, and despite his age and comp eligibility, he'll be a desirable commodity.

[bluerap23]

Actually - I don't think the salary outlook is much different for next year. We only have 3 significant FA's (Estrada, Liriano and Bautista).
I expect they will try to resign Estrada at 15x2-3. There is a chance Bautista comes back on his option at $17 (or, if not, they will have a significant budget for a replacement). Liriano is probably gone (Biagini has looked pretty good and some of the young bullpen arms have been pretty good as well making his transition to starting role bearable). That will actually bring our current salary commitment down next year.

Not when you include the arb-eligible players. Stroman, Donaldson, Sanchez, Osuna, Pillar and Travis will see combined raises of probably $25m or thereabouts.

And while anything is possible, I'd imagine that Estrada will get himself something in the $20m AAV range. As unconventional as he has, and despite his age and comp eligibility, he'll be a desirable commodity.

This is what I have:
Martin, Russell $20.00
Tulowitzki, Troy $20.00
Bautista, Jose $17.00
Donaldson, Josh $23
Estrada, Marco $15
Liriano, Francisco FA
Happ, J.A. $13.00
Morales, Kendrys $11.00
Pearce, Steve $6.25
Smoak, Justin $4.13
Stroman, Marcus $6.50
Grilli, Jason FA
Howell, J.P. FA
Smith, Joe FA
Barney, Darwin FA
Carrera, Ezequiel $2.50
Loup, Aaron $2.50
Coghlan, Chris FA
Pillar, Kevin $2
Osuna, Roberto $2
Goins, Ryan $1
Leone, Dominic $0.60
Bolsinger, Mike $0.60
Travis, Devon $2
Biagini, Joe $0.60
Schultz, Bo $0.60
Tepera, Ryan $0.60
Pompey, Dalton $0.60
Sanchez, Aaron $2
Gurriel, Lourdes $1.43
TOTAL - TOR $154.90

Some of the numbers are debatable but it isn't so bleak.

[Schad]

Your first-year arb estimates are way too low, I'm afraid. Sonny Gray got $3.6m coming off a terrible, injury-plagued year...Sanchez will at least match him. Jonathan Schoop got $3.5m, and probably isn't a bad comp for Travis; Pillar will get a bit more than $2m, and Osuna will get a lot more than $2m. That'd push the team's salaries into $162m range, and I'm dubious that Estrada returns for $15m unless his season takes a turn for the worse.

Even then, that'd leave us in a position where merely keeping this team together (minus a starter, three relievers and our bench, and with only 24 players receiving major league salaries) already costs us as much or more than our opening day roster.

[bluerap23]

Your first-year arb estimates are way too low, I'm afraid. Sonny Gray got $3.6m coming off a terrible, injury-plagued year...Sanchez will at least match him. Jonathan Schoop got $3.5m, and probably isn't a bad comp for Travis; Pillar will get a bit more than $2m, and Osuna will get a lot more than $2m. That'd push the team's salaries into $162m range, and I'm dubious that Estrada returns for $15m unless his season takes a turn for the worse.

Even then, that'd leave us in a position where merely keeping this team together (minus a starter, three relievers and our bench, and with only 24 players receiving major league salaries) already costs us as much or more than our opening day roster.

Ok, you're right about the Arb numbers - Let's adjust Travis, Pillar, Sanchez and Osuna to 4 million each. I'll put Estrada at 17 million (maybe he gets a sl. higher annual average but that is a fair estimate for year 1).

That brings total salary to 164.9. Currently we are at 163.4.
If (and this is a big if) we make it to the playoffs (or at least contention) this year it is reasonable to expect a small bump in payroll next year. Ideally you would like to have another starting pitcher, but you don't need to pay 13 million for one. 2 of the 3 relievers have been horrible and at the bottom of our bullpen depth. I believe we have a replacement for the starter that is gone. The bench players that are gone are Barney and Coghlan (i.e. easily replaceable on a budget). I expect we will need a budget of 175 to fill these holes (again - a reasonable increase for what is likely our last year of contention). The alternative will be a huge drop in revenue.

I'm not saying our salary situation is good (very difficult when you have Martin and Tulo taking up 20-25%), just that it isn't really bad.

[Schad]

But the result is a paper-thin team that again relies on Rogers bumping salary significantly, and Estrada re-signing for less than market value. It also has us going into a season where we have even less chance of making the playoffs, and if we remain close, we lose Donaldson for nothing more than a comp pick at the end of the year.

That's my unease: we're working with a smaller and smaller margin of error, and probably chasing the Wild Card game at best. Our farm system has some good bats, but few arms, and those bats will be reaching the bigs when our current crop of pre-arb guys are getting close to free agency. And the longer we try to hang on to a kinda-sorta chance that sees all of our finances devoted to winning now, the less likely it is that we'll actually be able to lock those players down before their team control ticks down.

[bluerap23]

There is a good argument for trading Donaldson. But he is probably the only one that can fetch a decent return after this year. It will be a tough sell to the fan base.

[Schad]

There is a good argument for trading Donaldson. But he is probably the only one that can fetch a decent return after this year. It will be a tough sell to the fan base.

It will be a tough sell when Donaldson walks, too. All of our options will be tough; it's why I wasn't too bothered when we were well below .500, because that was the one scenario that would make our decisions easier.

[bluerap23]

Just curious. How many MVP's have been traded in the past?

Edit. Found it.
[/url]http://m.mlb.com/news/article/210069456/andrew-mccutchen-may-be-next-mvp-to-be-traded/[url]

[Schad]

Just curious. How many MVP's have been traded in the past?

Former MVPs? Quite a few...off the top of my head, Ken Griffey Jr was traded, as was A-Rod. Andrew McCutchen won an MVP and Pittsburgh spent the whole offseason trying to flog him without much success.

[bluerap23]

10 mvps listed in the article. Actually pretty surprised at that number.

[Black Watch]

Why would you be? The MVP is a narrative award voted on by the writers. It's incumbent on the front office to write their own narrative, trading and signing the best they can afford.

Who cares how many awards he's won in the past. And this isn't a question of legacy either, as he's been here less than three years and he likely has only another 6, 7 years left in him--not all of them at this level, obviously. You guys act like he's going to keep up a 7-WAR pace for another decade and go into The Hall wearing a Jays jersey...

I wouldn't bet on it.

[Schad]

Why would you be? The MVP is a narrative award voted on by the writers. It's incumbent on the front office to write their own narrative, trading and signing the best they can afford.

Who cares how many awards he's won in the past. And this isn't a question of legacy either, as he's been here less than three years and he likely has only another 6, 7 years left in him--not all of them at this level, obviously. You guys act like he's going to keep up a 7-WAR pace for another decade and go into The Hall wearing a Jays jersey...

I wouldn't bet on it.

Particularly because he's hitting free agency at a much older age than is typical for a player of his calibre. He's going to be a few weeks short of 33 when he files, and someone will end up paying out seven or eight years for four years or less of top-level production.

[Black Watch]

Why would you be? The MVP is a narrative award voted on by the writers. It's incumbent on the front office to write their own narrative, trading and signing the best they can afford.

Who cares how many awards he's won in the past. And this isn't a question of legacy either, as he's been here less than three years and he likely has only another 6, 7 years left in him--not all of them at this level, obviously. You guys act like he's going to keep up a 7-WAR pace for another decade and go into The Hall wearing a Jays jersey...

I wouldn't bet on it.

Particularly because he's hitting free agency at a much older age than is typical for a player of his calibre. He's going to be a few weeks short of 33 when he files, and someone will end up paying out seven or eight years for four years or less of top-level production.

No way he gets a 7 or 8-year deal (cf. this past offseason). Don't forget who else is the FA market that year...

His prime is now and we should trade him.

[Schad]

No way he gets a 7 or 8-year deal (cf. this past offseason). Don't forget who else is the FA market that year...

His prime is now and we should trade him.

Think he gets 7-8 as a booby prize when the other FAs that season sign elsewhere. IMO, it'll line up like some recent NBA free agencies, where everyone sets aside money just in case, and then it ends up getting thrown at the high-level FAs who are left when Harper, Machado et al sign elsewhere.

[Kurtz]

But the result is a paper-thin team that again relies on Rogers bumping salary significantly, and Estrada re-signing for less than market value. It also has us going into a season where we have even less chance of making the playoffs, and if we remain close, we lose Donaldson for nothing more than a comp pick at the end of the year.

Unless I'm mistaken, the latest rule change states that teams in big markets (Jays being one) no longer qualify for comp picks.

[Schad]

But the result is a paper-thin team that again relies on Rogers bumping salary significantly, and Estrada re-signing for less than market value. It also has us going into a season where we have even less chance of making the playoffs, and if we remain close, we lose Donaldson for nothing more than a comp pick at the end of the year.

Unless I'm mistaken, the latest rule change states that teams in big markets (Jays being one) no longer qualify for comp picks.

Every team is eligible for some sort of comp pick...it's just a matter of where it falls. I can't find the list of teams eligible for a first round comp pick (large market teams who aren't in the tax are eligible for one following the 2nd round), but I could have sworn we were considered small market for those.

[fouronesix22]

These past few games we score mainly on homeruns instead of playing small ball. Like last year in august our offense was just horrible and I feel like the same thing would happen again. Except this time there is no margin for error. Pretty much if the big bats go cold again we are screwed