Jays extend Smoak for two years

[dagger]

Most prospects that you receive in a fire sale tend to be lower minors guys anyways, if we truly wanted to rebuild it is unlikely we would attempt to do what the Yankees have done (due to their ability to essentially ship guys out with a wad of cash big enough to cover their salaries).

Most rebuilds take years unless you have Yankees backing. Doubt we go full rebuild anyways, likely just going to look at moving Estrada and other 2017 FA's. Doubt we even get prospect types, looks like we are looking for guys who can contribute for 3-4 years without costing a fortune (team friendly Smoak type deals).

Tell that to the White Sox who sent Jose Quintana to the Cubs for their top TWO prospects today. Yes, Quintana is controllable but Eloy Jimenez - the Cubs top hitting prospect - and top pitching prospect Dylan Cease, aren't chopped liver. And the Sox also picked up two Class A prospects in the deal. Jimenez is Keith Law's #5 overall prospect in the minors. And come on, Quintana isn't having as good a season as last year, though he's still pretty good. I see this and my mouth waters at the idea of what we could get in a Donaldson trade, or for a Smoak on a cheap deal extending through 2019.

As for your other points, most rebuilds take years, but they don't have to take too long if a team maxes the value of its assets, rather than hanging on too long. In some respects, we're two years into a farm system rebuild that will begin pushing up A list talent in 2-3 years, maybe sooner. Rebuilds start to get really interesting at that point, because if you have good system depth, you can go either way - organic growth, or trading like the Cubs did for Quintana or the Red Sox for Sale, i.e trading for controllable talents in their prime.

[flatjacket1]

Tell that to the White Sox who sent Jose Quintana to the Cubs for their top TWO prospects today. Yes, Quintana is controllable but Eloy Jimenez - the Cubs top hitting prospect - and top pitching prospect Dylan Cease, aren't chopped liver. And the Sox also picked up two Class A prospects in the deal. Jimenez is Keith Law's #5 overall prospect in the minors. And come on, Quintana isn't having as good a season as last year, though he's still pretty good. I see this and my mouth waters at the idea of what we could get in a Donaldson trade, or for a Smoak on a cheap deal extending through 2019.

As for your other points, most rebuilds take years, but they don't have to take too long if a team maxes the value of its assets, rather than hanging on too long. In some respects, we're two years into a farm system rebuild that will begin pushing up A list talent in 2-3 years, maybe sooner. Rebuilds start to get really interesting at that point, because if you have good system depth, you can go either way - organic growth, or trading like the Cubs did for Quintana or the Red Sox for Sale, i.e trading for controllable talents in their prime.

There seems to be a disconnect between external scouting services and actual player value. Although those two are easily the top prospects in the Cubs system, it actually goes to show that low minors guys aren't worth a ton in the trade market.

Another good example would be Shebly Miller (#2 young starter) and a pitching prospect who never cracked a top 100 list to ARZ for a .300 hitting CF who also had plus defense (went on to win a GG). Seems fair right? I guess Atlanta didn't think so, managed to get Aaron Blair, a AAA arm with a sub-3 ERA in the PCL who was ranked 43rd best prospect in the MLB by BP pre-season. They also asked for a throw in, the previous year 1st round, #1 overall pick (Swanson) (Ranked #8 in MLB prospect list). Even though Swanson was the highest ranked prospect he was oft considered a throw in.

Although then tend to be talking points for the teams asking for them, packing a bunch of A ball guys together doesn't really get you a ton, regardless of stature. The higher minors top ranked guys get much more.

I'd say the Cubs actually did okay, the reason people think they made off like bandits was because they essientially got a ton of A ball guys. Cease (A), Jimenez (A+), and two class A guys as you mentioned. Quintana is worth a good amount, but the fact he is making 10M a year is good but also a team would essientially be signing him for 10M/year for 4 years on top of whatever they trade for him. When we signed Happ (who is a comparable arm in terms of current production) that was actually around what we paid, minus destroying our farm system. In terms of the haul, Sox likely won't see any of these guys for 2+ years and they likely won't be productive until 4+.

If we do end up moving Donaldson, I think we would tackle team needs as well as prospect capital. Chance are we'd ask a solid reliever, a middle roation arm (regardless of age/upside) for 2018, and then stack in some prospects who were likely low minors.

I think a rebuild at this point makes little sense, but a re-tool does.

[Skin Blues]

Even though Swanson was the highest ranked prospect he was oft considered a throw in.

LOL. By who?? Dave Stewart?

[flatjacket1]

Even though Swanson was the highest ranked prospect he was oft considered a throw in.

LOL. By who?? Dave Stewart?

Non-media people. And some stats people, a top 5 pick has a 45% chance of earning less than 3 fWAR in his first 6 years of service time in the MLB. My point is everyone thinks Atlanta fleeced ARZ, but in reality that is the going rate. Just like how every move to acquire a reliever is laughed at by the media.

For example if we wanted to move Vlad Jr, it actually would surprise people what we would get.

[dagger]

Even though Swanson was the highest ranked prospect he was oft considered a throw in.

LOL. By who?? Dave Stewart?

Non-media people. And some stats people, a top 5 pick has a 45% chance of earning less than 3 fWAR in his first 6 years of service time in the MLB. My point is everyone thinks Atlanta fleeced ARZ, but in reality that is the going rate. Just like how every move to acquire a reliever is laughed at by the media.

For example if we wanted to move Vlad Jr, it actually would surprise people what we would get.

Yoan Moncada got the Red Sox Chris Sale. Just saying.

[JaysRule15]

Non-media people. And some stats people, a top 5 pick has a 45% chance of earning less than 3 fWAR in his first 6 years of service time in the MLB. My point is everyone thinks Atlanta fleeced ARZ, but in reality that is the going rate. Just like how every move to acquire a reliever is laughed at by the media.

For example if we wanted to move Vlad Jr, it actually would surprise people what we would get.

Yoan Moncada got the Red Sox Chris Sale. Just saying.

Kopech was also a big piece of that trade though. And I think Moncada had more value than your typical Top 5 pick because he was seen as being 1 year away from the majors and most of his tools were already developed and assessed by scouts. It's certainly easier projecting the outlook for a guy like Moncada than say for Vladdy Jr. imo.

[flatjacket1]

Yoan Moncada got the Red Sox Chris Sale. Just saying.

I wouldn't exactly consider Yoan Moncada a "low minors" prospect.

He came from a league at 18 years which produced MLB ready talent such as Yoenis Cespedes among others. His age 18 season was actually worlds better than Lourdes Gourriel Jr. In fact, Moncada had 50 point higher OPS than Gurriel Jr. at the same age, and Moncada is actually supposed to project as a plus defense middle infielder while Gourriel is more up in the air right now.

Also worth noting Yoan Moncada had MLB regular season at bats at the time of the trade, and spent the majority of the season turning their AA park into his own personal pinball machine (.294/.407/.511 with 30 doubles, 15 HR's and 45 steals with good defense as a middle infielder in your second pro season in the States is fairly valuable).

In terms of the overall trade, there was also a 2.4 ERA (albeit low minors) top 100 prospect who projects to be a front of the rotation starter (actually is a top 20 prospect pre-2017) and there were two other player who both were excelling in the low minors (switch hitting OF with 25 steals and 12 home runs in A/A+ to go along with 26 doubles and 9 triples, and a power RHP 6'3 righty closer with 3.88 ERA and 63K/60.1 IP.)

Overall the Red Soxs paid 63M to sign a generational talent in Cuba, and his value only went up after tearing up AA and making it to the bigs in his second year. 63M also isn't salary, it's all signing bonus which means the Sox were also getting his controllable years at 600K/season for the first 3 years. After having such a good first two seasons, his value was higher than when he signed it.

In no way is Yoan Moncada a low minors prospect.

[Schad]

If that's the threshold, though, then I wouldn't consider Swanson a "low minors" prospect either, no matter his level completed. He was pretty much universally believed to be a fast-riser from the day he was drafted, and indeed debuted at the major league level only a few months after the trade. He wasn't a throw-in...he was a guy that the Braves, in late 2015 when they made the trade, would have penciled in as their starting shortstop from late 2016 onwards.

[-MetA4-]

It's certainly easier projecting the outlook for a guy like Moncada than say for Vladdy Jr. imo.

Not really. Moncada is striking out at an almost 30% clip in AAA. Most of his value comes in perceived tools: speed, defense, projected power, etc. Vlad Jr. at 18 is already showing better plate discipline than Moncada ever has. The reality is that Moncada has legitimate bust potential if he can't handle his strikeouts, while the biggest concern over Vlad Jr. is what position he'll be mashing at.

[vaff87]

For me, Moncada's strike outs are a pretty big red flag.

[JaysRule15]

Not really. Moncada is striking out at an almost 30% clip in AAA. Most of his value comes in perceived tools: speed, defense, projected power, etc. Vlad Jr. at 18 is already showing better plate discipline than Moncada ever has. The reality is that Moncada has legitimate bust potential if he can't handle his strikeouts, while the biggest concern over Vlad Jr. is what position he'll be mashing at.

The strikeouts were always a concern, but I'm talking about Moncada's physical tools. They were easier to quantify because he was older, more physically developed and closer to the majors. Not comparing Moncada directly to Vladdy Jr. here as prospects, but I'd definitely understand if certain clubs would prefer trading for a guy like Moncada first before trading for much younger guys still in A ball.

[flatjacket1]

Not really. Moncada is striking out at an almost 30% clip in AAA. Most of his value comes in perceived tools: speed, defense, projected power, etc. Vlad Jr. at 18 is already showing better plate discipline than Moncada ever has. The reality is that Moncada has legitimate bust potential if he can't handle his strikeouts, while the biggest concern over Vlad Jr. is what position he'll be mashing at.

Bradly Jones in a lot of ways outhit Guerro Jr. this year at Lansing. Statistics in the minors are weighed a lot less heavily than tools. Aaron Judge had a strikeout rate of almost 30% in AAA. Jesse Hernandez had the best pitching season in Lansing when he was the ace and beat Noah Syndergaard, Justin Nicolino and Aaron Sanchez but he got released years later when he couldn't get out of A+ ball (Also worth noting Syndergaard had the worst numbers of that group). Brett Lawrie had one of the better K% for the Brewers A ball affiliate, at only 16.5% across an entire season with power.

If you really think AAA Yoan has more bust potential than A+ Guerro I strongly disagree. Also Yoan plays a middle IF position, its looking like Guerro will be stuck in the corner OF (unless he can stick at 3B). Either way if Yoan hits 25 home runs he is a silver slugger, if Guerro hits 25 home runs he might be average. So yeah worrying about position is a thing too at this point.

Overall if we tried to trade Vlad Jr. for Yoan they would laugh and ask us to throw in Bo and Travis.

[-MetA4-]

Vlad Guerrero is ranked based on his tools, not based on the fact that his stats resemble Bradley Jones. I'm not even sure why you brought up Bradley Jones; wow a super old non-prospect hit well in Lansing? And that relates to GUerrero how? He is potential 65/70 grade hitter with 70 grade power and above-average plate discipline. He projects to be a considerably more advanced hitter than Moncada. What I'm suggesting isn't that absurd at all. Vlad Jr. isn't "years away"; he is realistically up within two years which means that he is barely behind Moncada once you account for the ~4 years age difference between them.

[Schad]

[
If you really think AAA Yoan has more bust potential than A+ Guerro I strongly disagree. Also Yoan plays a middle IF position, its looking like Guerro will be stuck in the corner OF (unless he can stick at 3B). Either way if Yoan hits 25 home runs he is a silver slugger, if Guerro hits 25 home runs he might be average. So yeah worrying about position is a thing too at this point.

Overall if we tried to trade Vlad Jr. for Yoan they would laugh and ask us to throw in Bo and Travis.

They're the #1 and #2 prospects in baseball, per BA. Ask 30 teams which one they'd prefer straight-up and I'd bet you'd get something approaching a 50/50 split.

[flatjacket1]

Vlad Guerrero is ranked based on his tools, not based on the fact that his stats resemble Bradley Jones. I'm not even sure why you brought up Bradley Jones; wow a super old non-prospect hit well in Lansing? And that relates to GUerrero how? He is potential 65/70 grade hitter with 70 grade power and above-average plate discipline. He projects to be a considerably more advanced hitter than Moncada. What I'm suggesting isn't that absurd at all. Vlad Jr. isn't "years away"; he is realistically up within two years which means that he is barely behind Moncada once you account for the ~4 years age difference between them.

Yoan signed in 2015 for 31.5M, costing the Sox's 60M+ in total after penalties. Guerro Jr. signed three months later for 3.8M. These guys were and never will be comparable.

You cannot argue that trading Yoan would yield comparable return in a trade. They both were equally impressive since signing two very different contracts two years ago. BA is one of the most tool heavy lists that come out, I can promise you he isn't even unanimously #2. Just like how pre-season 5 of the 6 list had him between 11th and 48th. BP didn't even have him making their top 100. Yoan didn't get below 5th and was 1st on some list (ahead of Andrew Benintendi). As much as .285/.381/.454 with 12 HRs, 17 steals, and holding down a premium position against the highest competition level of his career should have hurt his value, I don't think you can say Vlad is even a consensus top 5 and Yoan hasn't played himself out of the top 5.

The four years age gap is what hurts Vlad. If he gets through the next 4 years without major injuries and continues to adjust throughout the various levels of the minors he might be comparable to Moncada if he beats Moncada with the stick because he will be a 3B or LF likely. One in the hand is worth two in the bush.

2 years away if everything goes right isn't 2 years away. You are assuming he mashed at each stop in the minors and then some.