Schad wrote:Apropos of not much, something has gone haywire with Fangraphs' playoff odds. We keep randomly swinging between a .550+ projected winning percentage and one in the mid/low .520s once or twice a day. After losing to the Red Sox, our odds shot up 10%.
It adjusts based on remaining schedule, injuries, current projected remaining starts for each member of the rotation, etc. If Liriano, Archer and Severino all start on the same day, that removes one start from each of them and would increase our ROS W% since Liriano is our worst projected starter and he now has one less game in our remaining couple months. And after playing 4 games agaisnt the #1 team in the division, the remaining schedule necessarily becomes more favourable. The playoff odds won't go up solely because we lost a game. It may have been delayed input based on the win from the day before, or it might have been the day Pineda was replaced in the rotation with Luis Cessa and his 5+ projected ERA, or any number of things. It isn't instantaneous, changes roll in over time. The Yankees losing Pineda for the season increased our odds, and then when they traded for Frazier/Robertson/Kahnle they would decrease again, etc. It depends on when those changes are made in the database. It's not a simple pythagorean W/L record based on current season runs for and against, as most other systems use.
