MLB Non-Waiver Trade Deadline

[SharoneWright]

Following the Toronto Blue Jays' actions at the trade deadline, GM Ross Atkins joined Bob McCown and Arden Zwelling on Prime Time Sports to talk about the moves the team made, and how you come to the conclusion of trading certain players.

http://pmd.fan590.com/audio_on_demand-5/Ross-Atkins-on-Prime-Time-Sports-PTS-20170801-Interview.mp3

Well, we were Houston. But in a matter of 18 months we blew our wad. We were set up for years and years and years. And by the time our multiple exciting young assets needed to be paid, we still would've been in control. Who to sign, when to promote, who to keep, who to trade. What kind of control do we have now? Over Tulo's contract, Martin's contract, even Jose's one year contract...? nobody wants them. Over the free agents that have left us like Price/Lowe/Johnson Buehrle(rt.)... who cost us significant assets, and Encarnacion because we screwed our budget? They are all now a sunk cost and lost for nothing. The lingering pain for me is that we are no longer masters of our own destiny. We are beggars. We are subject to crappy contracts, crappy trade values, and a crappy farm system. And we did it to ourselves. And we had it in the bag. A sustainable, home grown juggernaut. Just needed a modicum of patience. This is going to take a while to turn around. But if we tear it down now (like literally, yesterday), our timing may coincide with the arrival of Guerrero/Bichette,, and as Schad has pointed out a number of times, the potential dénouement of the Sox/Yankees.

Don't make it sound like 2 years of playoff baseball with both a decent chance of making the World Series is nothing.
Also were we really like the Astros? Do you really think a team with the players we gave up could be steam rolling the al east? I doubt that. That's the problem..we gave up Thor and maybe Hoffman and could argue we could have a great staff now. But would you have been happy with our hitters? Probably not.

Fool's Gold. Don't get me wrong, it was a shot. But it was a Hail Mary. Never even made The Show.

(And as for hitters, we also lost Hech and D'Arnaud, and never really gained any hitters, unless you are counting Tulo/Reyes as hitters...)

[Lateral Quicks]

Well, we were Houston. But in a matter of 18 months we blew our wad. We were set up for years and years and years. And by the time our multiple exciting young assets needed to be paid, we still would've been in control. Who to sign, when to promote, who to keep, who to trade. What kind of control do we have now? Over Tulo's contract, Martin's contract, even Jose's one year contract...? nobody wants them. Over the free agents that have left us like Price/Lowe/Johnson Buehrle(rt.)... who cost us significant assets, and Encarnacion because we screwed our budget? They are all now a sunk cost and lost for nothing. The lingering pain for me is that we are no longer masters of our own destiny. We are beggars. We are subject to crappy contracts, crappy trade values, and a crappy farm system. And we did it to ourselves. And we had it in the bag. A sustainable, home grown juggernaut. Just needed a modicum of patience. This is going to take a while to turn around. But if we tear it down now (like literally, yesterday), our timing may coincide with the arrival of Guerrero/Bichette,, and as Schad has pointed out a number of times, the potential dénouement of the Sox/Yankees.

Don't make it sound like 2 years of playoff baseball with both a decent chance of making the World Series is nothing.
Also were we really like the Astros? Do you really think a team with the players we gave up could be steam rolling the al east? I doubt that. That's the problem..we gave up Thor and maybe Hoffman and could argue we could have a great staff now. But would you have been happy with our hitters? Probably not.

Fool's Gold. Don't get me wrong, it was a shot. But it was a Hail Mary. Never even made The Show.

(And as for hitters, we also lost Hech and D'Arnaud, and never really gained any hitters, unless you are counting Tulo/Reyes as hitters...)

Going all in on one season - as we did in 2015 - is a dumb decision because anything can and will happen in a short seven game series. The worst of the two teams wins often. So while I wouldn't call the 2015 Fool's Gold - it was clearly the best team in the league, IMO - it was foolish to go all in one season.

In retrospect, we got extremely lucky in 2016. Without the incredible health of our starting rotation, we don't sniff the playoffs. What's happened this year could have easily happened in 2016.

I still think this is at least a .500 team with full health, and I'm guessing Shapkins feel the same way. If they want to try and compete next year, I'm fine with it (though our chances look highly suspect) under three conditions. First, don't sign any large long-term free agent contracts. Second, don't fill out the roster with veterans. We need to start giving young players time with the big club. And third, if and when it goes belly up, be prepared to blow it up for real. That means Donaldson and Smoak are moved, among others.

Travis
Donaldson
Smoak
Pearce
Martin
Tulowitzki
Alford
Hernandez/Carrera
Pillar

Stroman
Happ
Sanchez
Free Agent
Estrada
(Pannone)
(Borucki)
(Rowley)

Hard to see that offense keep them in it unless they stay healthy, Tulowitzki rebounds, and Alford and Hernandez prove solid contributors.

[The_Hater]

I don't really see why it's a "missed opportunity". They can still do it in the off-season/next year's deadline.

Players with 1.5 years of team control generally have more trade value then players with one year or two months of team control. And if they don't trade Estrada, that's just an opportunity lost.

[Skin Blues]

Sure, it's surplus value when he makes nothing over five years, but it doesn't mean he's a good player. Henderson Alvarez had one and a half average/good seasons before his arm turned into hamburger meat, but of course if you use that sample and prorate it over X amount of years it sounds a lot better because you are not factoring him not pitching in '16 and '17 (and in 2016 he made $4m for a year long DL stint).

This raises the question: does what you consider a "good player" matter when we're talking about lost value?? I think you severely underestimate what 312 innings of a 3.23 ERA is worth to a team. Alvarez was worth between $32M-$59M over the three years of control the Marlins had him for (depending on the variation of WAR you prefer), and they paid him a total of $5M and then cut him loose. Oakland signed him to a one year Free Agent contract which turned out to be a bad deal but I don't see why that makes a difference. That's one of the benefits of arb years, you can just cut a guy if they aren't worth what their salary award is going to be, which is exactly what Miami did. Even including that $4M for whatever reason, he still earned between $22-$49M in surplus value depending on the variation of WAR you prefer for all the teams he played for after we traded him.

Like I said, I did not agree with AA's moves, I probably would have continued the rebuilding phase he was on even though I wasn't a big fan of his moves overall even before the 2013 craziness, but the Jays did not miss out on any difference making talent aside from Syndergaard.

Having those 5 starting pitchers (not including Alvarez; this is five separate guys who with the exception of Matt Boyd, are highly likely to put up more WAR than Alvarez did) who still have 21 combined years of control remaining isn't difference-making??? That is nonsense.

The Jays can get comparable value to the majority of guys they lost, but they can't find comparable value to an ace.

"I burned a sack filled with $400M worth of twenty-dollar bills so that I could heat up a can of beefaroni, but twenty-dollar bills are easy to find (everybody has lots of them!!) so it doesn't matter."

It is much more expensive and difficult to replace all these guys that give you "only" 1 or 2 WAR per season than you make it out to be. Especially when each one provides 7 years of MLB service time, 4 of which are for the league minimum salary. I'm not in favour of giving up on seasons that we could have been competitive in, but it is undeniable how much it costs to chase after a few expensive years of service time for established stars, and how much value there is to cash them in when they are likely not going to be any help to the team's playoff chances.

[Ong_dynasty]

Well, we were Houston. But in a matter of 18 months we blew our wad. We were set up for years and years and years. And by the time our multiple exciting young assets needed to be paid, we still would've been in control. Who to sign, when to promote, who to keep, who to trade. What kind of control do we have now? Over Tulo's contract, Martin's contract, even Jose's one year contract...? nobody wants them. Over the free agents that have left us like Price/Lowe/Johnson Buehrle(rt.)... who cost us significant assets, and Encarnacion because we screwed our budget? They are all now a sunk cost and lost for nothing. The lingering pain for me is that we are no longer masters of our own destiny. We are beggars. We are subject to crappy contracts, crappy trade values, and a crappy farm system. And we did it to ourselves. And we had it in the bag. A sustainable, home grown juggernaut. Just needed a modicum of patience. This is going to take a while to turn around. But if we tear it down now (like literally, yesterday), our timing may coincide with the arrival of Guerrero/Bichette,, and as Schad has pointed out a number of times, the potential dénouement of the Sox/Yankees.

Don't make it sound like 2 years of playoff baseball with both a decent chance of making the World Series is nothing.
Also were we really like the Astros? Do you really think a team with the players we gave up could be steam rolling the al east? I doubt that. That's the problem..we gave up Thor and maybe Hoffman and could argue we could have a great staff now. But would you have been happy with our hitters? Probably not.

Fool's Gold. Don't get me wrong, it was a shot. But it was a Hail Mary. Never even made The Show.

(And as for hitters, we also lost Hech and D'Arnaud, and never really gained any hitters, unless you are counting Tulo/Reyes as hitters...)

How was it fools gold when you take into account we were favourites? And unlike any of the other major sports once your in the playoffs in baseball, anything s possible.

And sure and hech and d'arnaud..is that team good enough to get out of the al east? Most likely not even close

[SharoneWright]

How was it fools gold when you take into account we were favourites? And unlike any of the other major sports once your in the playoffs in baseball, anything s possible.

And sure and hech and d'arnaud..is that team good enough to get out of the al east? Most likely not even close

Quicks said it better than me.

I'll rephrase: "Fool's Errand".

[Tanner]

Skin Blues, you are arguing something entirely different than me.

Scrub 0-1 WAR
Role Player 1-2 WAR
Solid Starter 2-3 WAR
Good Player 3-4 WAR
All-Star 4-5 WAR
Superstar 5-6 WAR
MVP 6+ WAR

When a player falls under the 'role player' spectrum, they are not players I'd classify as difference makers. They are fairly easy to find, at least compared to players that are in the "good player" to all star category. Kendrys Morales is a role player, not a good player. He'd have value if he were making $500k, but ignoring the dollar value, he's a fairly easily replaceable part.

You seem to think that I am saying they have no value at all, especially when they are in years 1-6 in their careers. I never said that. Value versus salary and actual talent are two entirely different things. If Teoscar Hernandez puts up a few 1-2 war seasons, are the Astros honestly going to care, even if Liriano **** the bed for them? The reason the prospects traded look better is because of what the Jays got back, not the players prospects themselves. If you spend hundreds of millions on Reyes, Buehrle, Johnson, Dickey, and Tulo and basically get nothing significant out of it, then the bigger issue is the lost value from the players you received, not the fact that a prospect traded is putting up a 1.5 war for someone else. Otherwise let's all cry talk about the surplus value that Kendall Graveman has provided too.

The value of a win also changes depending on where on the win curve a team is.

[Skin Blues]

Skin Blues, you are arguing something entirely different than me.

Scrub 0-1 WAR
Role Player 1-2 WAR
Solid Starter 2-3 WAR
Good Player 3-4 WAR
All-Star 4-5 WAR
Superstar 5-6 WAR
MVP 6+ WAR

When a player falls under the 'role player' spectrum, they are not players I'd classify as difference makers. They are fairly easy to find, at least compared to players that are in the "good player" to all star category. Kendrys Morales is a role player, not a good player. He'd have value if he were making $500k, but ignoring the dollar value, he's a fairly easily replaceable part.

You seem to think that I am saying they have no value at all, especially when they are in years 1-6 in their careers. I never said that. Value versus salary and actual talent are two entirely different things. If Teoscar Hernandez puts up a few 1-2 war seasons, are the Astros honestly going to care, even if Liriano **** the bed for them? The reason the prospects traded look better is because of what the Jays got back, not the players prospects themselves. If you spend hundreds of millions on Reyes, Buehrle, Johnson, Dickey, and Tulo and basically get nothing significant out of it, then the bigger issue is the lost value from the players you received, not the fact that a prospect traded is putting up a 1.5 war for someone else. Otherwise let's all cry talk about the surplus value that Kendall Graveman has provided too.

The value of a win also changes depending on where on the win curve a team is.

A simple "I was wrong, we lost a lot of valuable players" would have been a lot easier for you to type out.

Kendrys Morales is a role player, not a good player. He'd have value if he were making $500k, but ignoring the dollar value, he's a fairly easily replaceable part.

Yes, he's so easily replaceable that we just spent $33M to sign him for 3 years. We spent $18.5M plus a first round pick worth approx. $10M to sign Bautista, who had about 1 total WAR over the past 2 seasons combined. When players you deem as role players or scrubs cost $10M-$20M+ per year in free agency, and you say the ones signed for league minimum for 4 years are easily replaceable, your argument has fallen apart.

[The_Hater]

Well, we were Houston. But in a matter of 18 months we blew our wad. We were set up for years and years and years. And by the time our multiple exciting young assets needed to be paid, we still would've been in control. Who to sign, when to promote, who to keep, who to trade. What kind of control do we have now? Over Tulo's contract, Martin's contract, even Jose's one year contract...? nobody wants them. Over the free agents that have left us like Price/Lowe/Johnson Buehrle(rt.)... who cost us significant assets, and Encarnacion because we screwed our budget? They are all now a sunk cost and lost for nothing. The lingering pain for me is that we are no longer masters of our own destiny. We are beggars. We are subject to crappy contracts, crappy trade values, and a crappy farm system. And we did it to ourselves. And we had it in the bag. A sustainable, home grown juggernaut. Just needed a modicum of patience. This is going to take a while to turn around. But if we tear it down now (like literally, yesterday), our timing may coincide with the arrival of Guerrero/Bichette,, and as Schad has pointed out a number of times, the potential dénouement of the Sox/Yankees.

Don't make it sound like 2 years of playoff baseball with both a decent chance of making the World Series is nothing.
Also were we really like the Astros? Do you really think a team with the players we gave up could be steam rolling the al east? I doubt that. That's the problem..we gave up Thor and maybe Hoffman and could argue we could have a great staff now. But would you have been happy with our hitters? Probably not.

Fool's Gold. Don't get me wrong, it was a shot. But it was a Hail Mary. Never even made The Show.

(And as for hitters, we also lost Hech and D'Arnaud, and never really gained any hitters, unless you are counting Tulo/Reyes as hitters...)

It wasn't fools gold at all. The Jays were the best team in MLB in 2015 and we're a solid playoff team last season. But the MLB playoffs are the biggest crapshoot in professional sports. One pitch, one blooper, one error and you could lose to an inferior team. It's simply not a game where teams force their will on a weaker opponent. I'm not even sure it was a fools errand because after 20+ years of missing the postseason and watching crowds and enthusiasm wane, sometime you need to do something to change the narrative. And AA did that.

That said I once made an argument that if AA had made no trades at all and just concentrated on his young players and free agency that we would have been just as good in the short term and better long term. But obviously there were no guarantees on that either, perhaps we would have yet to see the postseason.

[North_of_Border]

Don't make it sound like 2 years of playoff baseball with both a decent chance of making the World Series is nothing.
Also were we really like the Astros? Do you really think a team with the players we gave up could be steam rolling the al east? I doubt that. That's the problem..we gave up Thor and maybe Hoffman and could argue we could have a great staff now. But would you have been happy with our hitters? Probably not.

Fool's Gold. Don't get me wrong, it was a shot. But it was a Hail Mary. Never even made The Show.

(And as for hitters, we also lost Hech and D'Arnaud, and never really gained any hitters, unless you are counting Tulo/Reyes as hitters...)

It wasn't fools gold at all. The Jays were the best team in MLB in 2015 and we're a solid playoff team last season. But the MLB playoffs are the biggest crapshoot in professional sports. One pitch, one blooper, one error and you could lose to an inferior team. It's simply not a game where teams force their will on a weaker opponent. I'm not even sure it was a fools errand because after 20+ years of missing the postseason and watching crowds and enthusiasm wane, sometime you need to do something to change the narrative. And AA did that.

That said I once made an argument that if AA had made no trades at all and just concentrated on his young players and free agency that we would have been just as good in the short term and better long term. But obviously there were no guarantees on that either, perhaps we would have yet to see the postseason.

If AA did not make any moves and stuck to the process he would have left that offseason and never got to see the results of his work. A new GM would have been hired. Maybe LaCava woulda took over. And AA would have gone down in history like JP Ricciardi. A failure.

I can't blame AA for what he did. Nor can I not admit that those 2 years were Amazing. It basically got the Jays to a new level in the Toronto market.

However, imagine if he did not make the moves. Basically the Jays woulda sucked. But just about now woulda been competing with the big boys.... longterm though. Not a short window.

[The_Hater]

Fool's Gold. Don't get me wrong, it was a shot. But it was a Hail Mary. Never even made The Show.

(And as for hitters, we also lost Hech and D'Arnaud, and never really gained any hitters, unless you are counting Tulo/Reyes as hitters...)

It wasn't fools gold at all. The Jays were the best team in MLB in 2015 and we're a solid playoff team last season. But the MLB playoffs are the biggest crapshoot in professional sports. One pitch, one blooper, one error and you could lose to an inferior team. It's simply not a game where teams force their will on a weaker opponent. I'm not even sure it was a fools errand because after 20+ years of missing the postseason and watching crowds and enthusiasm wane, sometime you need to do something to change the narrative. And AA did that.

That said I once made an argument that if AA had made no trades at all and just concentrated on his young players and free agency that we would have been just as good in the short term and better long term. But obviously there were no guarantees on that either, perhaps we would have yet to see the postseason.

If AA did not make any moves and stuck to the process he would have left that offseason and never got to see the results of his work. A new GM would have been hired. Maybe LaCava woulda took over. And AA would have gone down in history like JP Ricciardi. A failure.

I can't blame AA for what he did. Nor can I not admit that those 2 years were Amazing. It basically got the Jays to a new level in the Toronto market.

However, imagine if he did not make the moves. Basically the Jays woulda sucked. But just about now woulda been competing with the big boys.... longterm though. Not a short window.

We wouldn't have sucked. If he had kept all that cheap pitching talent, including Thor, we would have developed and incredible staff and all the extra money could have been spent on FA bats. We would have had D'Aroud and Gomes to catch and saved $18 million per on Martin. Would have had Jose/Edwin/Pillar/Lawrie/C and could have used free agency to fill in the lineup gaps. Move Lawrie to 2B and we're just looking at LF, 3B, SS and DH with tons of money to spend. Only SS would have been difficult.

That team wouldn't have been as good in 2015 but perhaps just as good in 2016 and sitting on top of the world by now.

[flatjacket1]

Skin Blues, you are arguing something entirely different than me.

Scrub 0-1 WAR
Role Player 1-2 WAR
Solid Starter 2-3 WAR
Good Player 3-4 WAR
All-Star 4-5 WAR
Superstar 5-6 WAR
MVP 6+ WAR

When a player falls under the 'role player' spectrum, they are not players I'd classify as difference makers. They are fairly easy to find, at least compared to players that are in the "good player" to all star category. Kendrys Morales is a role player, not a good player. He'd have value if he were making $500k, but ignoring the dollar value, he's a fairly easily replaceable part.

You seem to think that I am saying they have no value at all, especially when they are in years 1-6 in their careers. I never said that. Value versus salary and actual talent are two entirely different things. If Teoscar Hernandez puts up a few 1-2 war seasons, are the Astros honestly going to care, even if Liriano **** the bed for them? The reason the prospects traded look better is because of what the Jays got back, not the players prospects themselves. If you spend hundreds of millions on Reyes, Buehrle, Johnson, Dickey, and Tulo and basically get nothing significant out of it, then the bigger issue is the lost value from the players you received, not the fact that a prospect traded is putting up a 1.5 war for someone else. Otherwise let's all cry talk about the surplus value that Kendall Graveman has provided too.

The value of a win also changes depending on where on the win curve a team is.

243 players have a negative fWAR value this season. I still find it really hard to argue that replacement level is easy to find.

And in theory Ortiz was only an All-Star or better 5 times in his career, only once in the last 9 seasons. His 10 All-Star appearance must be an anomaly. He had 6 AS seasons with only 1 AS fWAR in the last 9 seasons.

Like fWAR is still good to eye ball but it's not exactly 100% accurate, as the creators will note.