How to keep Bautista in Toronto

[The_Hater]

And it's not just his age and lack of production, when productive he was already a guy who half the teams in the league wanted nothing to do with because of his personality and attitude. He's the most despised player in MLB.

Somebody will give him a spring training look in hopes of getting a reclamation project, Oakland and Tampa seem like good bets, but nobody is giving him guaranteed money which makes him a long shot at best.

Yeah I totally agree. Even on a minor league deal I don't think many teams want to touch him. That being said, I really think it makes less sense for Bautista. Financial incentive gone, a lot of this stuff he's been doing a while and competing for a role isn't something I think he wants to do.

I still think he has SOME left to offer at the plate, but DH only. In the field he has been a joke his entire career, 54 HR's is around the number he needs to be worth fielding out there. I was down for him moving to either DH or a bench bat even last year. If Morales wasn't around I'd be open to giving him a shot on a way lesser deal to compete this spring for a DH spot.

Even if Teoscar bats .220/.290/.430 with 25 HR's I'd argue that's better overall (including defense) than Bauts. Sure he makes sliding catches and stuff but Teoscar is getting underneath it and waiting on it for the out in situations where Bautista has to lay out.

He's definitely a DH only which rules out half the teams off the hop. In a bubble I wouldn't completely bet against Jose bouncing back to be a productive player, we've seen it before with aging sluggers, but I just don't another team giving him that chance to prove it.

[Wo1verine]

I would take him over Morales. I have faith he can bounce back to being a productive player. Plus, he bleeds BLUE! I would love for once to see one of our own finish his career here for once.

It was sad seeing Bautista's farewell during our last home game not going to lie.

[Schad]

There's really nothing to suggest that he's going to bounce back. His contact %, swinging strike rate and exit velocity have plummeted...he isn't merely having a down season, his bat speed is gone. In 2015, he had 666 PAs and struck out 106 times. This year, he has had 676 PAs, and has struck out 165 times. What made him the hitter he was has vanished, and it's pretty unlikely he'll rediscover his form at age 37.

I fully understand wanting him to end his career here, but do we really want to either grit our teeth next year while he sucks for another 150+ games, or have him end his tenure here on the bench or getting unceremoniously released mid-year? Because I'd say there's well above a 50/50 chance that's what we'd be looking at.

Edit: if we want to keep him in Toronto, give him Gregg Zaun's job.

[wamco]

3 headed coach system . Gibbons with tulo and Jose as player / coaches

[JaysRule15]

I honestly can't see any harm in bringing him back on a incentive deal with a low base salary if he is interested. If he shows up looking good in spring training and lands a regular job, then you give him a month or so of burn and hope to see a bounce back season. If his performance is similar to what it was this season, then you put him in a bench role, trade him for a PTNL or cash, or ask him to retire and throw him a big ceremony. Athletes have retired mid-season before.

Unless he bombs in ST, Teoscar has likely earned a starting gig heading into next season. And then there's Pillar (assuming he's not traded since he's about to become expensive). You could start off with Bautista, Pillar and Teoscar and have a guy like Alford waiting in the wings.

[The_Hater]

I would take him over Morales. I have faith he can bounce back to being a productive player. Plus, he bleeds BLUE! I would love for once to see one of our own finish his career here for once.

It was sad seeing Bautista's farewell during our last home game not going to lie.

Morales is far from great but I have a much bigger problem with a RH DH posting a .681 OPS. He's been in a massive free fall the past 2 seasons.

[Tanner]

I would take him over Morales.

Why?

Morales' avg exit velocity this season has been 91.1. The eight hitters ahead of him with a minimum 190 batted ball events? Judge, Cruz, Gallo, Sano, Khris Davis, Stanton, Goldy, and Zimmerman. He ranked 14th in FB/LD exit velocity, and 12th in GB. He still makes hard contact (38%, better than Encarnacion). He has been about a league average hitter this season in a year where it is universally agreed that he has not performed well. He has been absolutely brutal against RHP (78 wrc+) but has a very low BABIP (.238). He does hit a lot of ground balls and he is slow as dirt, so that's part of it, but he is killing LHP while drilling 55% of balls in play on the ground against them (versus 45% against righties). The biggest difference, and one that needs to be addressed is he can no longer hit off speed stuff. He is still hitting FB's but can no longer hit a CB. Smoak had similar issues last season and was able to correct it. Maybe there's hope.

Point is, Morales hasn't fallen off a cliff. His bat speed, exit velocity, etc, is still every bit as good as it used to be. For whatever reason off speed stuff is killing him now, while it wasn't in the past. Maybe he's declined due to age a bit, or maybe he can have a bounce back next season with some adjustments. I think he's far more likely to be a good hitter next year than Jose based on 2017.

[Skin Blues]

I've been hearing a lot about Morales' bat speed and exit velo the past couple years, but it's not getting the job done. He's barely been a league average hitter over the past 2 seasons, and has been worth a combined total of 0.2 WAR. It's time to cut bait. I'm sure some other GM will be happy to use a 30 HR slugger for marketing purposes. Just depends how much of the contract the new team will eat.

As for the RH DH thing mentioned above, this is how we got into this ordeal in the first place. A misguided attempt at adding a LH slugger. It's an unnecessary constraint to put on the front office as they build a team.

[The_Hater]

I've been hearing a lot about Morales' bat speed and exit velo the past couple years, but it's not getting the job done. He's barely been a league average hitter over the past 2 seasons, and has been worth a combined total of 0.2 WAR. It's time to cut bait. I'm sure some other GM will be happy to use a 30 HR slugger for marketing purposes. Just depends how much of the contract the new team will eat.

As for the RH DH thing mentioned above, this is how we got into this ordeal in the first place. A misguided attempt at adding a LH slugger. It's an unnecessary constraint to put on the front office as they build a team.

There's no such GM in 2017. At least for a player with no defensive position.

Anyways, the primary debate wasn't about whether or not Morales was an asset at his salary, he's not, but whether or not he's better than JB.

[Tanner]

Bat speed, exit velocity, hard hit rate, xOBA, and similar stats are important because you can't fake or luck into those things. You either hit the ball hard consistently, or you don't. Your bat is either quick, or is in't. Morales has been an above average hitter for his entire career except for this season (I won't count 2014 since he sat out the first part of the year). The increase in strike outs seems to suggest that he's losing a step, which he probably is due to age, but the underlying numbers still shows a player that might be able to bounce back. The players who hit the ball harder than him are only the elite of baseball when it comes to power. Kendrys drills way too many balls on the ground, and maybe that is fixable somehow, but regardless, I'd give him another year at least. If it's more of the same in 2018, then sure, eat his 2019 salary and move on. It's not like another team is going to take him.

If you look at Jose's batted ball profile, he's not even close to the hitter he was even last season, never mind in his prime. He looks toast. Like, really toast.

[Schad]

That's basically what it comes down to: we're stuck with Morales unless we're willing to eat much of his salary. Bautista is (for a small buyout) a free agent. Neither are particularly good options, but we're only wedded to one.

[The_Hater]

Bat speed, exit velocity, hard hit rate, xOBA, and similar stats are important because you can't fake or luck into those things. You either hit the ball hard consistently, or you don't. Your bat is either quick, or is in't. Morales has been an above average hitter for his entire career except for this season (I won't count 2014 since he sat out the first part of the year). The increase in strike outs seems to suggest that he's losing a step, which he probably is due to age, but the underlying numbers still shows a player that might be able to bounce back. The players who hit the ball harder than him are only the elite of baseball when it comes to power. Kendrys drills way too many balls on the ground, and maybe that is fixable somehow, but regardless, I'd give him another year at least. If it's more of the same in 2018, then sure, eat his 2019 salary and move on. It's not like another team is going to take him.

While everything you write is correct, I can see that other side too. That there's been limited production at the end of the day. It could be primarily bad luck but it could also be that the defensive shifts, his lack of foot speed and the lack of balls leaving the yard kill his numbers just enough that hitting the ball consistently hard doesn't matter.

[Tanner]

Bat speed, exit velocity, hard hit rate, xOBA, and similar stats are important because you can't fake or luck into those things. You either hit the ball hard consistently, or you don't. Your bat is either quick, or is in't. Morales has been an above average hitter for his entire career except for this season (I won't count 2014 since he sat out the first part of the year). The increase in strike outs seems to suggest that he's losing a step, which he probably is due to age, but the underlying numbers still shows a player that might be able to bounce back. The players who hit the ball harder than him are only the elite of baseball when it comes to power. Kendrys drills way too many balls on the ground, and maybe that is fixable somehow, but regardless, I'd give him another year at least. If it's more of the same in 2018, then sure, eat his 2019 salary and move on. It's not like another team is going to take him.

While everything you write is correct, I can see that other side too. That there's been limited production at the end of the day. It could be primarily bad luck but it could also be that the defensive shifts, his lack of foot speed and the lack of balls leaving the yard kill his numbers just enough that hitting the ball consistently hard doesn't matter.

Possibly. Morales is very slow and hits a lot of groundballs, and over the past two years has stopped hitting right handed pitching for whatever reason. It could be any number of reasons why he's not putting up better numbers despite the underlying numbers saying he should. But I disagree with Skins on his ability as a hitter. Excluding 2014 which was a huge outlier, his wrc+ per year from 2009 onwards have been 136, 128, 119, 119, 131, 111, 98. He has been an above average hitter every year except for this year. The fact that he has no defensive or base running value is why he is not as valuable as someone who hits like that could be. Maybe 2016 was the beginning of his decline and the Jays got him at the wrong time. That's certainly possible.

I personally would not have signed him as the Jays have too many old players to have someone glued to DH. They need DH open to periodically rest players and Morales kills that. I probably would have used the $11mm to absorb a contract like Josh Harrison's (who could cover 3b, 2b) and let DH kind of settle itself instead of signing a DH-only, but too late for that now.

[The_Hater]

Bat speed, exit velocity, hard hit rate, xOBA, and similar stats are important because you can't fake or luck into those things. You either hit the ball hard consistently, or you don't. Your bat is either quick, or is in't. Morales has been an above average hitter for his entire career except for this season (I won't count 2014 since he sat out the first part of the year). The increase in strike outs seems to suggest that he's losing a step, which he probably is due to age, but the underlying numbers still shows a player that might be able to bounce back. The players who hit the ball harder than him are only the elite of baseball when it comes to power. Kendrys drills way too many balls on the ground, and maybe that is fixable somehow, but regardless, I'd give him another year at least. If it's more of the same in 2018, then sure, eat his 2019 salary and move on. It's not like another team is going to take him.

While everything you write is correct, I can see that other side too. That there's been limited production at the end of the day. It could be primarily bad luck but it could also be that the defensive shifts, his lack of foot speed and the lack of balls leaving the yard kill his numbers just enough that hitting the ball consistently hard doesn't matter.

Possibly. Morales is very slow and hits a lot of groundballs, and over the past two years has stopped hitting right handed pitching for whatever reason. It could be any number of reasons why he's not putting up better numbers despite the underlying numbers saying he should. But I disagree with Skins on his ability as a hitter. Excluding 2014 which was a huge outlier, his wrc+ per year from 2009 onwards have been 136, 128, 119, 119, 131, 111, 98. He has been an above average hitter every year except for this year. The fact that he has no defensive or base running value is why he is not as valuable as someone who hits like that could be. Maybe 2016 was the beginning of his decline and the Jays got him at the wrong time. That's certainly possible.

I personally would not have signed him as the Jays have too many old players to have someone glued to DH. They need DH open to periodically rest players and Morales kills that. I probably would have used the $11mm to absorb a contract like Josh Harrison's (who could cover 3b, 2b) and let DH kind of settle itself instead of signing a DH-only, but too late for that now.

It would be so much better if he was struggling with LHP instead of RHP. Then he could just be platooned with Pearce and still be a very useful player 65% of the time. Instead the LH bat we brought in to help with a predominant RH lineup is only adding to the problem.

His lack of BB's is an issue too. If he could add 30 more walks to his total (unrealistic) or turn 10-12 line drive outs into HR's (somewhat realistic) then we're not even having this discussion.

Edit: I just checked his platoon splits, I never realized they were that bad.