Cathal Kelly: No rebuild means Jays heading to mediocrity, or worse

[The_Hater]

Most of the prospects AA traded haven't panned out

Speaking of which, Matt Boyd, who went to Detroit in the Daniel Norris trade, no-hit the White Sox today through 8 2/3. Okay, it was the White Sox, but he had a much better day than Joe Biagini. He ended up going the full nine and giving up that one hit and a walk, K'd 5. He wasn't an A level or even B level prospect, but he's nice end of rotation ballast for cheap.

I was one of a few people that hated that trade (hate rentals). But Boyd and Norris (Hoffman too) have been pretty bad. All have ERA above 5. They would look good right now as organizational depth but that is about it.

Hoffman has actually looked pretty good this past season in Colorado, problem was he pitched almost 60% of his innings at home where he got lit up as many pitchers often do. Opponents only had a .661 OPS in his road appearances. This trade is worse than the Price deal for sure.

And Norris is far too young to write off. He looked just as good in 2015-16 as he did bad in 2017.

[johanliebert]

I'll trust the guys who built this Indians juggernaut to know how to build a winning tea.

Exactly. They were allowed to build the Indians from the ground up, it appears Rogers isn't interested in letting them use the same approach. Unless you have a massive payroll like the Yankees and Red Sox, trying to rebuild on the fly is always a losing organizations game.

ahah. i thought the consensus here in the past was this ownership didnt want to put out a winning product. now its gone 180.

im telling you the nba new approach aka tanking has found its way here. when its time to rebuild its time to rebuild. i dont understand why everyone wants to accelerate to that point.

its time people stopped worrying about shapiros timeline..he has a plan.

[johanliebert]

i see journalists now think they can run franchises aha.

[The_Hater]

I'll trust the guys who built this Indians juggernaut to know how to build a winning tea.

Exactly. They were allowed to build the Indians from the ground up, it appears Rogers isn't interested in letting them use the same approach. Unless you have a massive payroll like the Yankees and Red Sox, trying to rebuild on the fly is always a losing organizations game.

ahah. i thought the consensus here in the past was this ownership didnt want to put out a winning product. now its gone 180.

im telling you the nba new approach aka tanking has found its way here. when its time to rebuild its time to rebuild. i dont understand why everyone wants to accelerate to that point.

its time people stopped worrying about shapiros timeline..he has a plan.

I don't see where I used the word tanking?

Trying to patch together a winner around a flawed core with a middle of the road payroll is the exact approach the Jays have been using since Pat Gillick left town. It's the approach Gord Ash used for years, then JP Richardi and even initially AA when he first tried to put a winner together with the Dickey/Buerhle trades. Only now that core is the oldest I'm MLB. If you think this is the winning formula, so be it. I disagree.

[JN]

Shapiro has been here for two years and he has a lot of work to do. No question. But to be in panic mode after year two before we see what moves are made this off season is silly.

I was criticizing Alex in year five and got hammered here for not being patient enough. Now we're dumping on Shapiro because he hasn't solved all the Jays problems in two seasons. Uh, okay.

I don't think many are dumping on Shapiro. Most of are dumping on the Jays ownership for not letting Shapiro do what is right as he is a master of knowing where teams are on the franchise success cycle and executing the necessary moves based on where you are. He would know that based on the success cycle that the Jays should be rebuilding.

My issue is more with fans that think re-tooling can be a successful long term solution in baseball with the right management. It's not. A good GM will never be able to re-tool and stay successful. He has to be allowed to manage a team and makes moves according to where it is on the success curve.

[C Court]

What complicates the issue is that Shapiro has more than just simple baseball issues on his plate.

Shapiro is increasing the Jays investment in a new and improved Dunedin training and rehab facility, advanced data and analytics, increased medical science and nutrition resources, additional scouting and player development resources and a major investment in the retrofit/rebuild of Rogers Centre to transform it into a modern baseball/entertainment facility. He is also upgrading business systems and processes within the Jays front office.

Not saying it's right, but the business reality is these all require significant financial resources. So a 'tank' could potentially reduce funds needed to support all these initiatives, if attendance collapses and tv ratings drop.

[Schad]

There's the rub, though. It'd make sense for Rogers to invest that money even in a downturn in on-the-field results, so that they'd be in place when we're ready to take on the world again. The Astros made big investments in their system and park at a time when they were drawing three people a night. The Cubs went scorched-earth at the same time they were planning a massive renovation of their stadium. They did these things because it made long-term financial sense.

We don't do "long-term". And because we don't do long-term, we won't be successful long-term.

[dagger]

What complicates the issue is that Shapiro has more than just simple baseball issues on his plate.

Shapiro is increasing the Jays investment in a new and improved Dunedin training and rehab facility, advanced data and analytics, increased medical science and nutrition resources, additional scouting and player development resources and a major investment in the retrofit/rebuild of Rogers Centre to transform it into a modern baseball/entertainment facility. He is also upgrading business systems and processes within the Jays front office.

Not saying it's right, but the business reality is these all require significant financial resources. So a 'tank' could potentially reduce funds needed to support all these initiatives, if attendance collapses and tv ratings drop.

I'm pretty sure they conned the City of Dunedin to chip in on that facility upgrade. And as for the Rogers Centre, tying current ticket prices and the team revenue stream to upgrades that haven't been made is a return to the Beeston era of show-up-first-then-we-will-raise-the-budget-for-player-salaries. Even MLSE didn't have the gall to tie ticket prices to pre-funding upgrades to do the last major renovations at the ACC. Everything that Shapiro plans to do at the SkyDome will return more profit to the team, so there is no rationale in my opinion for asking fans to pay for it in advance. And as for significant financial resources, Rogers can afford to fund its asset development up front, as it would upgrades to the fibre optic network. interest rates remain low, so they can borrow for a song if they want to protect cash flow.

Edit: Yes, it looks like Dunedin is funding more than half of the cost of the spring training site upgrades.

https://ballparkdigest.com/2017/04/26/pinellas-county-advances-blue-jays-spring-training-upgrades/

Please, no GoFundMe campaigns for these Rogers schnorrers

[flatjacket1]

What complicates the issue is that Shapiro has more than just simple baseball issues on his plate.

Shapiro is increasing the Jays investment in a new and improved Dunedin training and rehab facility, advanced data and analytics, increased medical science and nutrition resources, additional scouting and player development resources and a major investment in the retrofit/rebuild of Rogers Centre to transform it into a modern baseball/entertainment facility. He is also upgrading business systems and processes within the Jays front office.

Not saying it's right, but the business reality is these all require significant financial resources. So a 'tank' could potentially reduce funds needed to support all these initiatives, if attendance collapses and tv ratings drop.

I'm pretty sure they conned the City of Dunedin to chip in on that facility upgrade. And as for the Rogers Centre, tying current ticket prices and the team revenue stream to upgrades that haven't been made is a return to the Beeston era of show-up-first-then-we-will-raise-the-budget-for-player-salaries. Even MLSE didn't have the gall to tie ticket prices to pre-funding upgrades to do the last major renovations at the ACC. Everything that Shapiro plans to do at the SkyDome will return more profit to the team, so there is no rationale in my opinion for asking fans to pay for it in advance. And as for significant financial resources, Rogers can afford to fund its asset development up front, as it would upgrades to the fibre optic network. interest rates remain low, so they can borrow for a song if they want to protect cash flow.

Edit: Yes, it looks like Dunedin is funding more than half of the cost of the spring training site upgrades.

https://ballparkdigest.com/2017/04/26/pinellas-county-advances-blue-jays-spring-training-upgrades/

Please, no GoFundMe campaigns for these Rogers schnorrers

Also worth noting the league recently changed the way revenue sharing worked, and those dollars must be spent on these types of upgrades. Pre-changes owners just pocketed it.

Not to mention "Actual Stadium Expenses" also is accounted for in determining how much we give up to revenue sharing. The new system based on a market score has us comfortably not in the receiving end. There are tons of incentives for teams to spend on stadium and other baseball related non-salary items.

[Santoki]

I'll say this any time an article from Cathal Kelly is brought up:

It's Cathal **** Kelly.

Don't even bother legitimatizing his words. He's Steve Simmons with a better grasp on the English language.

[polo007]

TSN baseball insider Steve Phillips shares his off-season blueprint for the Toronto Blue Jays.

http://www.tsn.ca/phillips-off-season-blueprint-for-the-blue-jays-1.870814

The Blue Jays had a big increase in salary from 2016 to 2107, going from about $136 million to $163 million. I suspect there will be an increase for 2018 as well.

For the sake of this exercise, let’s assign the Jays a payroll of $175 million for 2018. Here is what I would do to put the team together for next season:

Determine payroll flexibility

The Jays have some significant money coming off the books in Jose Bautista ($18 million), Francisco Liriano ($13 million), Jason Grilli ($3 million), J.P. Howell ($3 million), Joe Smith ($3 million), Darwin Barney ($2.88 million) and Melvin Upton ($1 million).

That doesn’t mean all of that $43.88 million is available to spend on new players for 2018. Some part of it will be eaten up by the nine players who are arbitration eligible and will get a bump in pay next season.

Adding the guys under guaranteed contracts and arbitration-eligible players together gets you a roster of 17 at a total salary of $136.375 million. Using our $175 million payroll, that leaves about $38.625 million for the other eight spots on the roster. That’s where the improvements need to come in 2018.

The Plan

The first priority is to see if I can make a long-term deal with Donaldson. There should be enough common ground to strike a deal.

The Donaldson camp can’t like the fact that he would be entering free agency after next season at the age of 33, competing for dollars with Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, who will both be 26. I would offer Donaldson a six-year deal for $150 million to lock him up through his age 37 season. It’s a bit of a risk because of his age, but Donaldson is a hard worker and dedicated professional, so I would swallow hard and make the offer.

I will build my roster to win in 2018 regardless of whether or not Donaldson accepts my offer. I will consider some longer-term acquisitions to satisfy the club’s needs if Donaldson is committed beyond 2018. If he isn’t, I’ll look for only short-term considerations to upgrade the club so I can consider a total rebuild for 2019 if necessary.

[Schad]

I'm quite dubious that Donaldson would take a $25m AAV, but even still...signing a guy through age 37 is not "a bit of a risk". It's a near-guarantee that you're going to end up with a boat anchor for multiple seasons. Most good baseball players are "hard worker(s) and dedicated professional(s)"...it's why they're good baseball players. Most of them go into terminal decline long before they reach 37, too.

Imagine that we had signed Jose Bautista (another hard worker and dedicated professional) to a 5 year, $125m deal (I'm removing the first year of the extension as we still have Donaldson's rights in any instance) before his age 33 season. We'd have gotten the following:

2014 - 6.3 fWAR
2015 - 4.5
2016 - 1.4
2017 - -0.5
2018 - ?

Bautista's prime lasted longer than most, and he still is unlikely to approach the value of that contract. He'd have produced $91.6m over the first four seasons (which isn't too far off), but if he has another near-replacement-level season as seems likely, he'll ultimately have undershot his contract by more than $30m despite having two elite seasons. That's bad value.

[Skin Blues]

Donaldson probably offers more defensive value which helps his floor, and partly for that reason, I don't think 6/$150M (essentially a 5/$130M extension) comes close to what he can get on the open market. There's zero precedent of a player of his calibre and age getting less than $200M. Maybe GMs are wising up a bit, but that is more to do with one-dimensional sluggers than for top tier superstars. Inflation is also very real and the cost of a win has gone up a lot since the Miggy/Pujols/Cano contracts. And Donaldson is every bit as good as those guys were when they signed their mega contracts, if not a lot better.

[polo007]

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That brings us back to the meaning of ‘impact.’ When Atkins talks about adding impact players, he’s likely not referring to superstar types (not that the Blue Jays would rule those out). It’s a better bet that he’s referencing players capable of reliably contributing throughout the course of the season, the type of players who can be counted on to consistently generate something like 1.5 wins above replacement or more.

The easiest place to upgrade might be right field. Atkins recently told franchise icon Jose Bautista that the Blue Jays will decline his option, and the GM acknowledged Tuesday that it’s “very unlikely” Bautista plays for the 2018 team (regardless: “There will be a day that we celebrate him in a significant way,” Atkins said).

Internally, Teoscar Hernandez has “certainly earned the right” to be considered for an everyday job next spring after hitting eight home runs down the stretch. Anthony Alford, who was on the brink of a call-up this September, isn’t far off, either. Still, the Blue Jays would be better equipped to handle the grind of a six-month season with an established option around, too.

Free agency offers Lorenzo Cain, Jay Bruce, Curtis Granderson and Carlos Gonzalez among others — each intriguing but risky in his own way. They’re all on the wrong side of 30, though, and the Blue Jays are slow as is.

“It’s a clear issue for us,” Atkins said. “It’s really hard to [address] in free agency.”

The trade market will also have appeal for a team lacking speed, and not only in right field. Atkins would like to add a versatile player along the lines of Ben Zobrist or Marwin Gonzalez. This player, ideally a switch-hitter or left-handed bat, could provide insurance in the event that Troy Tulowitzki and/or Devon Travis needs a break.

[polo007]

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In other words, both the Jays and Rangers went all in and nearly got to where they wanted. Both teams are now understandably reluctant to let that winning feeling go. They want to believe ultimate victory is still possible with the group that couidn’t quite get there before and have convinced themselves that it’s possible to simultaneously try to win while also rebuilding with a base of young talent, often picked up from other teams.

So far, after acquiring prospect Teoscar Hernandez at the deadline, the Jays have re-signed 34-year-old pitcher Marco Estrada and his bad back to a one-year deal with a pay cut, and abandoned all hope that 36-year-old outfielder Jose Bautista has anything left. Those moves would seem to be born of competing philosophies and don’t really tell you where Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins want to take this thing, but their public comments suggest they have no intention of taking a couple of steps backwards next year.

There’s certainly no indication at all the Jays are looking to mimic the powerhouse Houston Astros, a team that went to the bottom with seasons of 56, 55 and 51 wins and drafted the likes of Carlos Correa and George Springer. The Astros have now emerged as a team likely to contend for years.

The Jays’ immediate future revolves around 31-year-old third baseman Josh Donaldson. They can’t allow Donaldson to simply walk as a free agent after next season, but they also could really set themselves back with a gigantic contract that ties them to Donaldson for six or seven years. They need a solution between those extremes.

He could represent a bold move towards a true rebuild if the Jays move him for futures. But that wouldn’t help them be competitive next season, which is their stated goal. Unstated is the fear that the fans won’t come to the ballpark if the team doesn’t win.