Jays Younger Pitching

[Holmes]

Its like a mini novel in here.

[TR50]

^^ Oh yeah

anyways, how many HR has Marcum given up so far? how many IP? I have faith in the kid, still has years in front of him and i'm sure he's just as much aware of his HR "problem" as us.

[OldNo7]

Well the good thing about Marcum and giving up home runs, like he did today, is that he doesnt allow many other guys on base.

[tsherkin]

What have been his GB%s throughout his career in the minors? I don't have the stats in front of me so I can't say for sure, but I seem to remember them hovering just above or just below 40%, which is fairly poor. Moreso than K-rates and BB-rates, home run problems tend to be chronic in many cases. This isn't to say he can't improve them, but he's not suddenly going to make that issue disappear; in my opinion, best case scenario would be him becoming average at keeping the ball in the park.

Don't know his minors rates but he's been 40-45% GB% in the majors in two years and one in the 30s (which was obviously not a great year for that).

Roy Halladay's are in the 50s and 60s, the hallmark of a truly effective groundball pitcher, but he also has a lot more impressive command over a broader array of pitches, including a much better curveball and that dirty sinker of his, so that's not surprising.

You're missing my point, I'm not saying that Marcum is a dirty groundball pitcher NOW, I'm saying based on his pitch repetoire, his ability to add new pitches and his propensity for mixing up his location and pitch selection, he'll develop into a good one in time, enough to be an effective 3rd or 4th starter.

I don't disagree with the notion that his improvement in the HR/9 area will make him any more than average in that department, I don't see him improving that much in that regard, but my point is that he'll compensate for that by generally setting down batters by inducing more grounders.

Your Roy Halladay example doesn't hold water. Aside from that one year, he never had problems with home runs; even in his first season his issues weren't nearly as pronounced as Marcum's.

Err, the stats beg to differ, might I remind you:

Halladay didn't have a flattering HR/9 value in his first full year in the Majors either (1.15/9), nor in his second year (1.86/9) but he improved dramatically thereafter.

That last year is markedly WORSE than what Marcum is experiencing as a starter this year, which is a value of approximately 1.6 before tonight's game.

So yeah, it's two years and in one of them, his HR/9 was noticeably HIGHER than Marcum's present value.